Saudi Arabia and the UAE head for recession amid Iran war impact: IMF
Published . Updated .
Jihad Azour, Director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department at the IMF speaks to CNBC's Dan Murphy as the fund forecasts a sharp contraction across Gulf economies this year amid the Iran war.
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- FRO Frontline+1.4%
Tanker operators earn more when freight rates spike
- INSW International Seaways-1.4%
Tanker operators earn more when freight rates spike
- DHT DHT Holdings
Tanker operators earn more when freight rates spike
- TNK Teekay Tankers
Tanker operators earn more when freight rates spike
- USO United States Oil Fund+4.9%
Oil prices move when Iranian supply is at risk
- XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR+3.8%
Energy companies move with Iran supply risk
- LMT Lockheed Martin+11.5%
Defense contractors get more work when conflict spending rises
- RTX RTX-0.4%
Defense contractors get more work when conflict spending rises
- XOM Exxon Mobil+7.9%
Oil producers earn more when crude prices rise
- DAL Delta Air Lines-0.8%
Airlines pay more for fuel when oil prices jump
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FRO | +2.38% | -1.82% | base | +3.21% | after close | after close | after close |
| INSW | +1.36% | -3.49% | base | +3.68% | after close | after close | after close |
| DHT | -2.28% | -3.23% | base | +2.40% | after close | after close | after close |
| TNK | +1.72% | -0.66% | base | +3.63% | after close | after close | after close |
| USO | -0.46% | -1.11% | base | +3.07% | after close | after close | after close |
| XLE | +0.97% | +0.55% | base | +1.89% | after close | after close | after close |
| LMT | -6.43% | -7.02% | base | +0.92% | after close | after close | after close |
| RTX | -0.33% | -0.66% | base | -2.10% | after close | after close | after close |
| XOM | +0.46% | -0.17% | base | +1.87% | after close | after close | after close |
| DAL | -4.91% | -3.24% | base | -4.69% | after close | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
Market Call
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Saudi Arabia and the UAE head for recession amid Iran war impact: IMF CNBC
Source: CNBC
Middle East
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | that day | -4.69% | still updating |
| DAL | three days earlier | -3.24% | final price |
| DAL | five days earlier | -4.91% | final price |
| DHT | that day | +2.40% | still updating |
| DHT | three days earlier | -3.23% | final price |
| DHT | five days earlier | -2.28% | final price |
| FRO | that day | +3.21% | still updating |
| FRO | three days earlier | -1.82% | final price |
| FRO | five days earlier | +2.38% | final price |
| INSW | that day | +3.68% | still updating |
| INSW | three days earlier | -3.49% | final price |
| INSW | five days earlier | +1.36% | final price |
| LMT | that day | +0.92% | still updating |
| LMT | three days earlier | -7.02% | final price |
| LMT | five days earlier | -6.43% | final price |
| RTX | that day | -2.10% | still updating |
| RTX | three days earlier | -0.66% | final price |
| RTX | five days earlier | -0.33% | final price |
| TNK | that day | +3.63% | still updating |
| TNK | three days earlier | -0.66% | final price |
| TNK | five days earlier | +1.72% | final price |
| USO | that day | +3.07% | still updating |
| USO | three days earlier | -1.11% | final price |
| USO | five days earlier | -0.46% | final price |
| XLE | that day | +1.89% | still updating |
| XLE | three days earlier | +0.55% | final price |
| XLE | five days earlier | +0.97% | final price |
| XOM | that day | +1.87% | still updating |
| XOM | three days earlier | -0.17% | final price |
| XOM | five days earlier | +0.46% | final price |
| ZIM | three days earlier | +0.29% | final price |
| ZIM | five days earlier | +0.53% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold Lockheed Martin (LMT) (jointly held), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 23 Sep 2026. That is 30 days before publication. Filed 13 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold Lockheed Martin (LMT) (jointly held), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 23 Sep 2026. That is 30 days before publication. Filed 13 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold Lockheed Martin (LMT) (jointly held), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 17 Sep 2026. That is 36 days before publication. Filed 13 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) (jointly held), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 31 Aug 2026. That is 53 days before publication. Filed 25 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM), worth $250,001 - $500,000 on 31 Jul 2026. That is 84 days before publication. Filed 22 Sep 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Where this story sits: Middle East
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How solid the defense case looks
12 out of 100Price not final
“Saudi Arabia and the UAE head for recession amid Iran war impact: IMF” scores 12 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources. The price is not final yet.