Sorry, Trump. More Russian Oil Won’t Take Down Energy Prices. Here’s What Will.
Published . Updated .
This report is about oil and natural gas.
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- USO United States Oil Fund+2.7% 30d
United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR+5.6% 30d
Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- UNG United States Natural Gas Fund-9.2% 30d
United States Natural Gas Fund: it follows natural-gas prices. Linked by “russian” (natural gas) in this story.
- BWET Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF+70.4% 19d
Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF: it tracks tanker freight rates. Linked by “oil” (tanker shipping) in this story.
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings+11.8% 12d
ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- CVX Chevron+6.5% 30d
Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- COP ConocoPhillips+12.1% 30d
ConocoPhillips (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- SHEL Shell+0.1% 13d
Shell (crude petroleum and natural gas): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO | -3.36% | -2.27% | base | -1.70% | after close | after close | after close |
| XLE | -2.42% | -2.96% | base | -1.98% | after close | after close | after close |
| UNGNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| BWETNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| XOM | -3.61% | -3.44% | base | -2.19% | after close | after close | after close |
| CVX | -2.74% | -2.34% | base | -1.46% | after close | after close | after close |
| COPNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| SHELNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
Market Call
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Sorry, Trump. More Russian Oil Won’t Take Down Energy Prices. Here’s What Will. Barron's
Source: Barron's
Energy
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| CVX | that day | -1.46% | still updating |
| CVX | three days earlier | -2.34% | final price |
| CVX | five days earlier | -2.74% | final price |
| USO | that day | -1.70% | still updating |
| USO | three days earlier | -2.27% | final price |
| USO | five days earlier | -3.36% | final price |
| XLE | that day | -1.98% | still updating |
| XLE | three days earlier | -2.96% | final price |
| XLE | five days earlier | -2.42% | final price |
| XOM | that day | -2.19% | still updating |
| XOM | three days earlier | -3.44% | final price |
| XOM | five days earlier | -3.61% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) (jointly held), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 31 Aug 2026. That is 57 days before publication. Filed 25 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM), worth $250,001 - $500,000 on 31 Jul 2026. That is 88 days before publication. Filed 22 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold Chevron (CVX) (jointly held), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 23 Sep 2026. That is 34 days before publication. Filed 13 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar bought Chevron (CVX), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 2 Sep 2026. That is 55 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Chevron (CVX), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 26 Aug 2026. That is 62 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 26 Aug 2026. That is 62 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 24 Aug 2026. That is 64 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Conocophillips (COP), worth $1,000,001 - $5,000,000 on 21 Aug 2026. That is 67 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
How solid the energy case looks
12 out of 100Price not final
“Sorry, Trump. More Russian Oil Won’t Take Down Energy Prices. Here’s What Will.” scores 12 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources. The price is not final yet.