Stock Market Outlook: Nvidia Earnings, Anthropic’s IPO, and the Fed Rate Decision
Published . Updated .
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This report is about semiconductors and US interest rates.
Directly affected
Indirectly affected
- SMH VanEck Semiconductor ETF-16.4% 30d
VanEck Semiconductor ETF: it holds chipmakers. Linked by “nvidia” (semiconductors) in this story.
- SOXX iShares Semiconductor ETF-20.8% 30d
iShares Semiconductor ETF: it holds chipmakers. Linked by “nvidia” (semiconductors) in this story.
- TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF-2.2% 30d
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
- ASML ASML Holding N.V-5.3% 14d
ASML Holding N.V (special industry machinery): chip demand, export rules and supply drive chipmakers' shares. Linked by “nvidia” (semiconductors) in this story.
- TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing-9.5% 30d
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (semiconductors and related devices): chip demand, export rules and supply drive chipmakers' shares. Linked by “nvidia” (semiconductors) in this story.
- JPM JPMorgan Chase+0.1% 30d
JPMorgan Chase (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
- BAC Bank of America-11.4% 30d
Bank of America (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
- AVGO Broadcom-7.1% 30d
Broadcom (semiconductors and related devices): chip demand, export rules and supply drive chipmakers' shares. Linked by “nvidia” (semiconductors) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | +12.76% | +13.75% | base | +3.06% | after close | after close | after close |
| ANTPrices arriving within minutes | — | — | — | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| SMH | +17.15% | +16.15% | base | +3.75% | after close | after close | after close |
| SOXX | +20.02% | +18.34% | base | +3.93% | after close | after close | after close |
| TLT | -0.08% | -1.01% | base | +0.08% | after close | after close | after close |
| ASML | +15.17% | +14.16% | base | +4.26% | after close | after close | after close |
| TSM | +15.19% | +14.85% | base | +6.47% | after close | after close | after close |
| JPM | -0.08% | +0.17% | base | -0.25% | after close | after close | after close |
| BAC | +0.41% | -0.30% | base | +0.02% | after close | after close | after close |
| AVGO | +11.90% | +13.93% | base | +0.37% | after close | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
Stock Market Outlook: Nvidia Earnings, Anthropic’s IPO, and the Fed Rate Decision Barron's
Source: Barron's
This story
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| ASML | that day | +4.26% | still updating |
| ASML | three days earlier | +14.16% | final price |
| ASML | five days earlier | +15.17% | final price |
| AVGO | that day | +0.37% | still updating |
| AVGO | three days earlier | +13.93% | final price |
| AVGO | five days earlier | +11.90% | final price |
| BAC | that day | +0.02% | still updating |
| BAC | three days earlier | -0.30% | final price |
| BAC | five days earlier | +0.41% | final price |
| JPM | that day | -0.25% | still updating |
| JPM | three days earlier | +0.17% | final price |
| JPM | five days earlier | -0.08% | final price |
| NVDA | that day | +3.06% | still updating |
| NVDA | three days earlier | +13.75% | final price |
| NVDA | five days earlier | +12.76% | final price |
| SMH | that day | +3.75% | still updating |
| SMH | three days earlier | +16.15% | final price |
| SMH | five days earlier | +17.15% | final price |
| SOXX | that day | +3.93% | still updating |
| SOXX | three days earlier | +18.34% | final price |
| SOXX | five days earlier | +20.02% | final price |
| TLT | that day | +0.08% | still updating |
| TLT | three days earlier | -1.01% | final price |
| TLT | five days earlier | -0.08% | final price |
| TSM | that day | +6.47% | still updating |
| TSM | three days earlier | +14.85% | final price |
| TSM | five days earlier | +15.19% | final price |
Congressional trades in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Nvidia (NVDA) (held by a spouse), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 2 Oct 2026. That is 35 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Cleo Fields bought Nvidia (NVDA), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 1 Oct 2026. That is 36 days before publication. Filed 22 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Nvidia (NVDA) (held by a dependent child), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 23 Sep 2026. That is 44 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold Asml Holding (ASML) (jointly held), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 23 Oct 2026. That is 14 days before publication. Filed 28 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Cleo Fields bought Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 9 Oct 2026. That is 28 days before publication. Filed 22 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Gilbert Cisneros bought Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 22 Sep 2026. That is 45 days before publication. Filed 12 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 25 Aug 2026. That is 73 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse sold Jpmorgan Chase (JPM), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 4 Sep 2026. That is 63 days before publication. Filed 1 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse sold Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) (held by a spouse), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 4 Sep 2026. That is 63 days before publication. Filed 1 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) (held by a spouse), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 27 Aug 2026. That is 71 days before publication. Filed 4 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna sold Bank Of America (BAC) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 9 Sep 2026. That is 58 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Laurel Lee sold Bank Of America (BAC) (held by a spouse), worth $50,001 - $100,000 on 24 Aug 2026. That is 74 days before publication. Filed 16 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
This story
12 out of 100Price not final
“Stock Market Outlook: Nvidia Earnings, Anthropic’s IPO, and the Fed Rate Decision” scores 12 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources. The price is not final yet.