Stocks Rose a Year After Every Midterm Since 1982. Will 2026 Keep the Streak?
Published . Updated .
The S&P 500 and Bitcoin rose a year after past midterm elections, but oil, yields and AI could test the 2026 streak.
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- USO United States Oil Fund+13.9% 30d
United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR+12.1% 30d
Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- QQQ Invesco QQQ-2.0% 30d
Invesco QQQ: it holds the big tech and AI names. Linked by “ai” (AI and big tech) in this story.
- IBIT iShares Bitcoin Trust-11.5% 30d
iShares Bitcoin Trust: it follows bitcoin. Linked by “bitcoin” (crypto) in this story.
- MSTR Strategy-22.5% 30d
This company's value is tied to its bitcoin holdings. Linked by “bitcoin” in this story
- COIN Coinbase Global-28.7% 30d
The crypto exchange moves with trading volumes. Linked by “bitcoin” in this story
- RIOT Riot Platforms-47.1% 30d
Bitcoin miners move with the bitcoin price. Linked by “bitcoin” in this story
- MARA MARA Holdings-7.7% 7d
Bitcoin miners move with the bitcoin price. Linked by “bitcoin” in this story
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO | +4.37% | +7.30% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| XLE | +1.44% | +2.16% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| QQQ | +5.87% | +5.02% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| IBIT | +5.40% | +5.44% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| MSTR | +8.13% | +8.32% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| COIN | +16.89% | +16.70% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| RIOT | +14.49% | +15.93% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| MARA | +10.19% | +11.35% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
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Stocks Rose a Year After Every Midterm Since 1982. Will 2026 Keep the Streak? Yahoo Finance
Source: Yahoo Finance
Spdr Dow Jones Industrial Average Etf Trust (DIA) since this story, compared with the market
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| COIN | three days earlier | +16.70% | final price |
| COIN | five days earlier | +16.89% | final price |
| IBIT | three days earlier | +5.44% | final price |
| IBIT | five days earlier | +5.40% | final price |
| MARA | three days earlier | +11.35% | final price |
| MARA | five days earlier | +10.19% | final price |
| MSTR | three days earlier | +8.32% | final price |
| MSTR | five days earlier | +8.13% | final price |
| Invesco Qqq Trust, Series 1 (QQQ) | three days earlier | +5.02% | final price |
| Invesco Qqq Trust, Series 1 (QQQ) | five days earlier | +5.87% | final price |
| RIOT | three days earlier | +15.93% | final price |
| RIOT | five days earlier | +14.49% | final price |
| USO | three days earlier | +7.30% | final price |
| USO | five days earlier | +4.37% | final price |
| XLE | three days earlier | +2.16% | final price |
| XLE | five days earlier | +1.44% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Strategy (MSTR), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 10 Aug 2026. That is 85 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Coinbase Global (COIN) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 4 Sep 2026. That is 60 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Gilbert Cisneros sold Coinbase Global (COIN), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 18 Aug 2026. That is 77 days before publication. Filed 10 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, sold Coinbase Global (COIN), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 10 Aug 2026. That is 85 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Who gains and who loses around Spdr Dow Jones Industrial Average Etf Trust (DIA)
Companies mentioned with this story
- DIA Spdr Dow Jones Industrial Average Etf Trust
In “Stocks Rose a Year After Every Midterm Since 1982. Will 2026 Keep the Streak?,” Spdr Dow Jones Industrial Average Etf Trust (DIA) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF: it is a broad US stock-market fund. Linked by “stocks” (the broad US market) in this story
- QQQ Invesco Qqq Trust, Series 1
In “Stocks Rose a Year After Every Midterm Since 1982. Will 2026 Keep the Streak?,” Invesco Qqq Trust, Series 1 (QQQ) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Invesco QQQ: it is a broad US stock-market fund. Linked by “stocks” (the broad US market) in this story
- IWM Ishares Tr
Ishares Tr (IWM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 3 Nov 2026 story “Stocks Rose a Year After Every Midterm Since 1982. Will 2026 Keep the Streak?.” Reason on file: iShares Russell 2000 ETF: it is a broad US stock-market fund. Linked by “stocks” (the broad US market) in this story
- RSP Invesco Exchange Traded Fd T
Invesco Exchange Traded Fd T (RSP) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 3 Nov 2026 story “Stocks Rose a Year After Every Midterm Since 1982. Will 2026 Keep the Streak?.” Reason on file: Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF: it is a broad US stock-market fund. Linked by “stocks” (the broad US market) in this story
- VTI Vanguard Index Fds
Vanguard Index Fds (VTI) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 3 Nov 2026 story “Stocks Rose a Year After Every Midterm Since 1982. Will 2026 Keep the Streak?.” Reason on file: Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF: it is a broad US stock-market fund. Linked by “stocks” (the broad US market) in this story
Spdr Dow Jones Industrial Average Etf Trust (DIA)
On 3 Nov 2026, “Stocks Rose a Year After Every Midterm Since 1982. Will 2026 Keep the Streak?” is the story that connects Spdr Dow Jones Industrial Average Etf Trust (DIA) to this story.
The link for Spdr Dow Jones Industrial Average Etf Trust (DIA) is this: SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF: it is a broad US stock-market fund. Linked by “stocks” (the broad US market) in this story
A second company, Invesco Qqq Trust, Series 1 (QQQ), is listed for a different reason: Invesco QQQ: it is a broad US stock-market fund. Linked by “stocks” (the broad US market) in this story
Dates and price levels for Spdr Dow Jones Industrial Average Etf Trust (DIA)
DIA traded between 504.92 and 522.62 across 18 sessions. The latest close on file is 515.65. IWM traded between 269.88 and 285.25 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 279.37. QQQ traded between 683.47 and 762.84 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 690.51.
How strong the case is around Spdr Dow Jones Industrial Average Etf Trust (DIA)
40 out of 100
“Stocks Rose a Year After Every Midterm Since 1982. Will 2026 Keep the Streak?” scores 40 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 5 linked companies.