Support for semiconductor stocks could be as much as 15% lower than current levels, says Morgan Stanley
Published . Updated .
The chief stock-market strategist for Morgan Stanley is sticking with a forecast that the S&P 500 will end the year at 8,000, but growing caution is on display as he identified that support for the key semiconductor sector could come considerably lower.
Directly affected
- MS Morgan Stanley-11.0% 30d
Named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- SMH VanEck Semiconductor ETF-0.1% 30d
VanEck Semiconductor ETF: it holds chipmakers. Linked by “semiconductor” (semiconductors) in this story.
- SOXX iShares Semiconductor ETF-1.3% 30d
iShares Semiconductor ETF: it holds chipmakers. Linked by “semiconductor” (semiconductors) in this story.
- TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing+2.6% 30d
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (semiconductors and related devices): chip demand, export rules and supply drive chipmakers' shares. Linked by “semiconductor” (semiconductors) in this story.
- ASML ASML Holding N.V-8.0% 30d
ASML Holding N.V (special industry machinery): chip demand, export rules and supply drive chipmakers' shares. Linked by “semiconductor” (semiconductors) in this story.
- NVDA Nvidia+1.8% 30d
Nvidia (semiconductors and related devices): chip demand, export rules and supply drive chipmakers' shares. Linked by “semiconductor” (semiconductors) in this story.
- AVGO Broadcom-3.0% 30d
Broadcom (semiconductors and related devices): chip demand, export rules and supply drive chipmakers' shares. Linked by “semiconductor” (semiconductors) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MS | -0.60% | +4.25% | base | +2.24% | +4.17% | after close | after close |
| SMH | +4.02% | +5.58% | base | +3.24% | +6.02% | after close | after close |
| SOXX | +4.87% | +6.61% | base | +3.43% | +7.06% | after close | after close |
| TSM | +0.44% | +3.20% | base | +2.23% | +4.77% | after close | after close |
| ASML | +4.78% | +6.70% | base | +1.43% | +4.39% | after close | after close |
| NVDA | +2.87% | +5.16% | base | +2.63% | +3.33% | after close | after close |
| AVGO | +4.01% | +5.01% | base | +2.75% | +6.77% | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
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The chief stock-market strategist for Morgan Stanley is sticking with a forecast that the S&P 500 will end the year at 8,000, but growing caution is on display as he identified that support for the key semiconductor sector could come consi…
Source: MarketWatch
Semiconductors
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| ASML | that day | +1.43% | final price |
| ASML | the next day | +4.39% | final price |
| ASML | three days earlier | +6.70% | final price |
| ASML | five days earlier | +4.78% | final price |
| AVGO | that day | +2.75% | final price |
| AVGO | the next day | +6.77% | final price |
| AVGO | three days earlier | +5.01% | final price |
| AVGO | five days earlier | +4.01% | final price |
| MS | that day | +2.24% | final price |
| MS | the next day | +4.17% | final price |
| MS | three days earlier | +4.25% | final price |
| MS | five days earlier | -0.60% | final price |
| NVDA | that day | +2.63% | final price |
| NVDA | the next day | +3.33% | final price |
| NVDA | three days earlier | +5.16% | final price |
| NVDA | five days earlier | +2.87% | final price |
| SMH | that day | +3.24% | final price |
| SMH | the next day | +6.02% | final price |
| SMH | three days earlier | +5.58% | final price |
| SMH | five days earlier | +4.02% | final price |
| SOXX | that day | +3.43% | final price |
| SOXX | the next day | +7.06% | final price |
| SOXX | three days earlier | +6.61% | final price |
| SOXX | five days earlier | +4.87% | final price |
| TSM | that day | +2.23% | final price |
| TSM | the next day | +4.77% | final price |
| TSM | three days earlier | +3.20% | final price |
| TSM | five days earlier | +0.44% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, sold Morgan Stanley (MS), worth $50,001 - $100,000 on 31 Jul 2026. That is 87 days before publication. Filed 22 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Cleo Fields bought Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 9 Oct 2026. That is 17 days before publication. Filed 22 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Gilbert Cisneros bought Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 22 Sep 2026. That is 34 days before publication. Filed 12 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 25 Aug 2026. That is 62 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul bought Asml Holding (ASML) (held by a spouse), worth $50,001 - $100,000 on 7 Aug 2026. That is 80 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Cleo Fields bought Nvidia (NVDA), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 1 Oct 2026. That is 25 days before publication. Filed 22 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Nvidia (NVDA) (held by a dependent child), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 23 Sep 2026. That is 33 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna sold Nvidia (NVDA) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 4 Sep 2026. That is 52 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna sold Broadcom (AVGO) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 25 Sep 2026. That is 31 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna sold Broadcom (AVGO) (held by a dependent child), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 23 Sep 2026. That is 33 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Gilbert Cisneros sold Broadcom (AVGO), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 16 Sep 2026. That is 40 days before publication. Filed 12 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
How solid the semiconductors case looks
12 out of 100
“Support for semiconductor stocks could be as much as 15% lower than current levels, says Morgan Stanley” scores 12 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources.