Tariff pain and Iran war defined the US 2026 midterms
Published . Updated .
Key takeaways
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Voters have issued their verdict on Trump’s trade and foreign policy; what will the Democrats do next? Read more at The Business Times.
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- ITA iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF+1.1% 30d
iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “war” (defense) in this story.
- XAR SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF-4.4% 30d
SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “war” (defense) in this story.
- XLI Industrial Select Sector SPDR-0.3% 30d
Industrial Select Sector SPDR: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- USO United States Oil Fund+6.3% 30d
United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “iran” (oil) in this story.
- CAT Caterpillar-23.2% 30d
Caterpillar (construction machinery and equip): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- DE Deere-0.6% 30d
Deere (farm machinery and equipment): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- WMT Walmart+12.9% 30d
Walmart (variety stores): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- NKE Nike+6.7% 30d
Nike (rubber and plastics footwear): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ITA | -4.02% | -3.08% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| XAR | -3.84% | -2.83% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| XLI | -1.66% | -2.29% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| USO | +5.38% | +6.75% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| CAT | +14.53% | -0.17% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| DE | -3.81% | +1.40% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| WMT | -4.79% | -1.04% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| NKE | -3.40% | +0.56% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
Tariff pain and Iran war defined the US 2026 midterms The Business Times
Source: The Business Times
How far IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) has moved since 4 Nov 2026
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caterpillar (CAT) | three days earlier | -0.17% | final price |
| Caterpillar (CAT) | five days earlier | +14.53% | final price |
| Deere (DE) | three days earlier | +1.40% | final price |
| Deere (DE) | five days earlier | -3.81% | final price |
| IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) | three days earlier | -3.08% | final price |
| IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) | five days earlier | -4.02% | final price |
| Nike (NKE) | three days earlier | +0.56% | final price |
| Nike (NKE) | five days earlier | -3.40% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | three days earlier | +6.75% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | five days earlier | +5.38% | final price |
| Walmart (WMT) | three days earlier | -1.04% | final price |
| Walmart (WMT) | five days earlier | -4.79% | final price |
| Spdr Series Trust (XAR) | three days earlier | -2.83% | final price |
| Spdr Series Trust (XAR) | five days earlier | -3.84% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) | three days earlier | -2.29% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) | five days earlier | -1.66% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Lisa McClain bought Caterpillar (CAT) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 28 Sep 2026. That is 37 days before publication. Filed 12 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Walmart (WMT) (held by a spouse), worth $50,001 - $100,000 on 2 Oct 2026. That is 33 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Jonathan Jackson sold Walmart (WMT) (jointly held), worth $50,001 - $100,000 on 28 Sep 2026. That is 37 days before publication. Filed 19 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Walmart (WMT) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 25 Sep 2026. That is 40 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Nike (NKE), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 28 Aug 2026. That is 68 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Gilbert Cisneros sold Nike (NKE), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 27 Aug 2026. That is 69 days before publication. Filed 10 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, sold Nike (NKE), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 21 Aug 2026. That is 75 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Who is named in “Tariff pain and Iran war defined the US 2026 midterms”
Companies tied to this story
- ITA IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF
For “Tariff pain and Iran war defined the US 2026 midterms,” IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “war” (defense) in this story
- XAR Spdr Series Trust
In “Tariff pain and Iran war defined the US 2026 midterms,” Spdr Series Trust (XAR) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “war” (defense) in this story
- XLI Select Sector Spdr Tr
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 4 Nov 2026 story “Tariff pain and Iran war defined the US 2026 midterms.” Reason on file: Industrial Select Sector SPDR: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
- USO United States Oil Fund
For “Tariff pain and Iran war defined the US 2026 midterms,” United States Oil Fund (USO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “iran” (oil) in this story
- CAT Caterpillar
In “Tariff pain and Iran war defined the US 2026 midterms,” Caterpillar (CAT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Caterpillar (construction machinery and equip): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
- DE Deere
For “Tariff pain and Iran war defined the US 2026 midterms,” Deere (DE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Deere (farm machinery and equipment): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
- WMT Walmart
Walmart (WMT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 4 Nov 2026 story “Tariff pain and Iran war defined the US 2026 midterms.” Reason on file: Walmart (variety stores): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
- NKE Nike
Nike (NKE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 4 Nov 2026 story “Tariff pain and Iran war defined the US 2026 midterms.” Reason on file: Nike (rubber and plastics footwear): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) and the defense link
On 4 Nov 2026, “Tariff pain and Iran war defined the US 2026 midterms” is the story that connects IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) to Defense.
For IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA), the reason on file says iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “war” (defense) in this story
Also listed, Spdr Series Trust (XAR): SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “war” (defense) in this story
Dates and price levels for IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA)
ITA traded between 197.59 and 218.73 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 216.38. XAR traded between 210.89 and 237.55 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 231.04. XLI traded between 163.00 and 172.33 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 169.73.
How solid the defense case looks
54 out of 100
“Tariff pain and Iran war defined the US 2026 midterms” scores 54 out of 100. The score uses 2 sources, and 8 linked companies.