Tariff Refunds Boost Polaris and Logistics Stocks, but Leave Caterpillar Sidelined
Published . Updated .
This report is about tariffs and trade and transport and logistics.
Directly affected
Indirectly affected
- XLI Industrial Select Sector SPDR-0.3% 30d
Industrial Select Sector SPDR: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- XRT SPDR S&P Retail ETF
SPDR S&P Retail ETF: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- IYT iShares U.S. Transportation ETF
iShares U.S. Transportation ETF: it holds transport and logistics firms. Linked by “logistics” (transport and logistics) in this story.
- UPS United Parcel Service+3.1% 15d
United Parcel Service (trucking and courier services (no air)): freight and delivery firms move with trade volumes. Linked by “logistics” (transport and logistics) in this story.
- UNP Union Pacific+4.4% 30d
Union Pacific (railroads, line-haul operating): freight and delivery firms move with trade volumes. Linked by “logistics” (transport and logistics) in this story.
- DE Deere-5.5% 30d
Deere (farm machinery and equipment): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- WMT Walmart+11.3% 30d
Walmart (variety stores): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- FDX FedEx-0.4% 30d
FedEx (air courier services): freight and delivery firms move with trade volumes. Linked by “logistics” (transport and logistics) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PII | -3.44% | -6.05% | base | +2.66% | after close | after close | after close |
| CAT | -1.52% | -3.17% | base | -9.43% | after close | after close | after close |
| XLINo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| XRTNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| IYTNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| UPSNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| UNPNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| DENo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| WMTNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| FDXNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
Market Call
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Tariff Refunds Boost Polaris and Logistics Stocks, but Leave Caterpillar Sidelined Barron's
Source: Barron's
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) since this story, compared with the market
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caterpillar (CAT) | that day | -9.43% | final price |
| Caterpillar (CAT) | three days earlier | -3.17% | final price |
| Caterpillar (CAT) | five days earlier | -1.52% | final price |
| PII | that day | +2.66% | final price |
| PII | three days earlier | -6.05% | final price |
| PII | five days earlier | -3.44% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Lisa McClain bought Caterpillar (CAT) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 28 Sep 2026. That is 31 days before publication. Filed 12 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Caterpillar (CAT), worth $50,001 - $100,000 on 31 Jul 2026. That is 90 days before publication. Filed 22 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Jonathan Jackson sold Walmart (WMT) (jointly held), worth $50,001 - $100,000 on 28 Sep 2026. That is 31 days before publication. Filed 19 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Walmart (WMT) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 25 Sep 2026. That is 34 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna sold Walmart (WMT) (held by a dependent child), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 11 Sep 2026. That is 48 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rick Larsen sold Fedex (FDX), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 8 Oct 2026. That is 21 days before publication. Filed 12 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna sold Fedex (FDX) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 25 Sep 2026. That is 34 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar sold Fedex (FDX), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 24 Sep 2026. That is 35 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Who gains and who loses around Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI)
Companies tied to this story
- XLI Select Sector Spdr Tr
In “Tariff Refunds Boost Polaris and Logistics Stocks, but Leave Caterpillar Sidelined,” Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Industrial Select Sector SPDR: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
- XRT Spdr Series Trust
Spdr Series Trust (XRT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 29 Oct 2026 story “Tariff Refunds Boost Polaris and Logistics Stocks, but Leave Caterpillar Sidelined.” Reason on file: SPDR S&P Retail ETF: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
- IYT Ishares Tr
In “Tariff Refunds Boost Polaris and Logistics Stocks, but Leave Caterpillar Sidelined,” Ishares Tr (IYT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares U.S. Transportation ETF: it holds transport and logistics firms. Linked by “logistics” (transport and logistics) in this story
- CAT Caterpillar
Caterpillar (CAT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 29 Oct 2026 story “Tariff Refunds Boost Polaris and Logistics Stocks, but Leave Caterpillar Sidelined.” Reason on file: Caterpillar (construction machinery and equip): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
- UPS United Parcel Service
United Parcel Service (UPS) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 29 Oct 2026 story “Tariff Refunds Boost Polaris and Logistics Stocks, but Leave Caterpillar Sidelined.” Reason on file: United Parcel Service (trucking and courier services (no air)): freight and delivery firms move with trade volumes. Linked by “logistics” (transport and logistics) in this story
- UNP Union Pacific
Union Pacific (UNP) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 29 Oct 2026 story “Tariff Refunds Boost Polaris and Logistics Stocks, but Leave Caterpillar Sidelined.” Reason on file: Union Pacific (railroads, line-haul operating): freight and delivery firms move with trade volumes. Linked by “logistics” (transport and logistics) in this story
- DE Deere
In “Tariff Refunds Boost Polaris and Logistics Stocks, but Leave Caterpillar Sidelined,” Deere (DE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Deere (farm machinery and equipment): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
- WMT Walmart
For “Tariff Refunds Boost Polaris and Logistics Stocks, but Leave Caterpillar Sidelined,” Walmart (WMT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Walmart (variety stores): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI)
The 29 Oct 2026 story “Tariff Refunds Boost Polaris and Logistics Stocks, but Leave Caterpillar Sidelined” names Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) because of this story.
What ties Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) to the headline is this: Industrial Select Sector SPDR: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
Also listed, Spdr Series Trust (XRT): SPDR S&P Retail ETF: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
Dates in the story, and the Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) price range
XLI traded between 163.00 and 172.33 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 168.51. XRT traded between 83.12 and 85.33 across 1 sessions. The latest close on file is 83.23.
What the saved facts support for Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI)
46 out of 100
“Tariff Refunds Boost Polaris and Logistics Stocks, but Leave Caterpillar Sidelined” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 8 linked companies.