Tariffs, diesel, lamb: why a Trump midterm defeat would matter to Aus farmers
Published . Updated .
Covered by 2 outlets: Farm Online, Queensland Country Life.
Between Trump and a hard place: a midterm rebuke could hit the bush.
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- XLI Industrial Select Sector SPDR-1.5% 30d
Industrial Select Sector SPDR: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- XRT SPDR S&P Retail ETF
SPDR S&P Retail ETF: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- USO United States Oil Fund+13.9% 30d
United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “diesel” (oil) in this story.
- DBA Invesco DB Agriculture Fund-6.3% 30d
Invesco DB Agriculture Fund: it follows farm commodity prices. Linked by “farmers” (grains and farm goods) in this story.
- CAT Caterpillar-23.7% 30d
Caterpillar (construction machinery and equip): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- DE Deere-0.9% 30d
Deere (farm machinery and equipment): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- WMT Walmart+14.9% 30d
Walmart (variety stores): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- NKE Nike+7.1% 30d
Nike (rubber and plastics footwear): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLINo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| XRTNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| USO | -1.54% | -1.29% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| DBANo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| CATNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| DENo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| WMTNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| NKE | -2.04% | -3.94% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
Market Call
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Tariffs, diesel, lamb: why a Trump midterm defeat would matter to Aus farmers Farm Online
Source: Farm Online
How far Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) has moved since 1 Nov 2026
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nike (NKE) | three days earlier | -3.94% | final price |
| Nike (NKE) | five days earlier | -2.04% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | three days earlier | -1.29% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | five days earlier | -1.54% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Lisa McClain bought Caterpillar (CAT) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 28 Sep 2026. That is 34 days before publication. Filed 12 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Walmart (WMT) (held by a spouse), worth $50,001 - $100,000 on 2 Oct 2026. That is 30 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Jonathan Jackson sold Walmart (WMT) (jointly held), worth $50,001 - $100,000 on 28 Sep 2026. That is 34 days before publication. Filed 19 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Walmart (WMT) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 25 Sep 2026. That is 37 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Nike (NKE), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 28 Aug 2026. That is 65 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Gilbert Cisneros sold Nike (NKE), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 27 Aug 2026. That is 66 days before publication. Filed 10 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, sold Nike (NKE), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 21 Aug 2026. That is 72 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Who gains and who loses around Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI)
Companies tied to this story
- XLI Select Sector Spdr Tr
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 1 Nov 2026 story “Tariffs, diesel, lamb: why a Trump midterm defeat would matter to Aus farmers.” Reason on file: Industrial Select Sector SPDR: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
- XRT Spdr Series Trust
In “Tariffs, diesel, lamb: why a Trump midterm defeat would matter to Aus farmers,” Spdr Series Trust (XRT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: SPDR S&P Retail ETF: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
- USO United States Oil Fund
In “Tariffs, diesel, lamb: why a Trump midterm defeat would matter to Aus farmers,” United States Oil Fund (USO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “diesel” (oil) in this story
- DBA Invesco Db Agriculture Fund
In “Tariffs, diesel, lamb: why a Trump midterm defeat would matter to Aus farmers,” Invesco Db Agriculture Fund (DBA) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Invesco DB Agriculture Fund: it follows farm commodity prices. Linked by “farmers” (grains and farm goods) in this story
- CAT Caterpillar
For “Tariffs, diesel, lamb: why a Trump midterm defeat would matter to Aus farmers,” Caterpillar (CAT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Caterpillar (construction machinery and equip): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
- DE Deere
In “Tariffs, diesel, lamb: why a Trump midterm defeat would matter to Aus farmers,” Deere (DE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Deere (farm machinery and equipment): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
- WMT Walmart
For “Tariffs, diesel, lamb: why a Trump midterm defeat would matter to Aus farmers,” Walmart (WMT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Walmart (variety stores): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
- NKE Nike
For “Tariffs, diesel, lamb: why a Trump midterm defeat would matter to Aus farmers,” Nike (NKE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Nike (rubber and plastics footwear): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI)
On 1 Nov 2026, “Tariffs, diesel, lamb: why a Trump midterm defeat would matter to Aus farmers” is the story that connects Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) to this story.
What ties Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) to the headline is this: Industrial Select Sector SPDR: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
A second company, Spdr Series Trust (XRT), is listed for a different reason: SPDR S&P Retail ETF: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
Price levels for Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI)
USO traded between 141.82 and 171.80 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 168.83. XLI traded between 163.00 and 172.33 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 167.42.
How strong the case is around Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI)
54 out of 100
“Tariffs, diesel, lamb: why a Trump midterm defeat would matter to Aus farmers” scores 54 out of 100. The score uses 2 sources, and 8 linked companies.