‘The $100 level is ours for awhile’: Oil won’t be getting cheap anytime soon, no matter what happens in the Gulf
Published . Updated .
The oil market may soon reach a point where the dust finally settles enough to see the true chaos the eight-month-old conflict in the Middle East and its shipping disruptions have wrought upon the global crude sector.
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- USO United States Oil Fund+7.3% 30d
United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR+6.2% 30d
Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- BWET Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF+25.1% 18d
Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF: it tracks shipping freight. Linked by “shipping” (container shipping) in this story.
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings+10.3% 14d
ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- CVX Chevron+8.4% 30d
Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- COP ConocoPhillips+7.7% 30d
ConocoPhillips (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- SHEL Shell+0.1% 13d
Shell (crude petroleum and natural gas): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- ZIM ZIM Integrated Shipping Services+1.3% 30d
ZIM Integrated Shipping Services (deep sea foreign transportation of freight): shipping lines' rates jump when routes or ports are disrupted. Linked by “shipping” (container shipping) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USONo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| XLENo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| BWETNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| XOM | -2.14% | +1.35% | base | +0.18% | after close | after close | after close |
| CVX | -1.18% | +1.19% | base | +0.93% | after close | after close | after close |
| COPNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| SHELNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ZIM | -2.06% | -0.44% | base | -1.45% | after close | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
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The oil market may soon reach a point where the dust finally settles enough to see the true chaos the eight-month-old conflict in the Middle East and its shipping disruptions have wrought upon the global crude sector.
Source: MarketWatch
Price since this story was published: United States Oil Fund (USO)
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chevron (CVX) | that day | +0.93% | final price |
| Chevron (CVX) | three days earlier | +1.19% | final price |
| Chevron (CVX) | five days earlier | -1.18% | final price |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | that day | +0.18% | final price |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | three days earlier | +1.35% | final price |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | five days earlier | -2.14% | final price |
| ZIM | that day | -1.45% | final price |
| ZIM | three days earlier | -0.44% | final price |
| ZIM | five days earlier | -2.06% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) (jointly held), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 31 Aug 2026. That is 59 days before publication. Filed 25 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM), worth $250,001 - $500,000 on 31 Jul 2026. That is 90 days before publication. Filed 22 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold Chevron (CVX) (jointly held), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 23 Sep 2026. That is 36 days before publication. Filed 13 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar bought Chevron (CVX), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 2 Sep 2026. That is 57 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Chevron (CVX), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 26 Aug 2026. That is 64 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 26 Aug 2026. That is 64 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 24 Aug 2026. That is 66 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Conocophillips (COP), worth $1,000,001 - $5,000,000 on 21 Aug 2026. That is 69 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Where this story sits: Middle East
Geopolitics Alpha has 0 stories about Middle East from the past 7 days and 0 stories from the past 30. “‘The $100 level is ours for awhile’: Oil won’t be getting cheap anytime soon, no matter what happens in the Gulf” is tagged to Middle East.
Who gains and who loses around United States Oil Fund (USO)
Companies carried with this story
- USO United States Oil Fund
United States Oil Fund (USO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 29 Oct 2026 story “‘The $100 level is ours for awhile’: Oil won’t be getting cheap anytime soon, no matter what happens in the Gulf.” Reason on file: United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- XLE Select Sector Spdr Tr
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 29 Oct 2026 story “‘The $100 level is ours for awhile’: Oil won’t be getting cheap anytime soon, no matter what happens in the Gulf.” Reason on file: Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- BWET Amplify Commodity Trust
For “‘The $100 level is ours for awhile’: Oil won’t be getting cheap anytime soon, no matter what happens in the Gulf,” Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF: it tracks tanker freight rates. Linked by “oil” (tanker shipping) in this story
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings
ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 29 Oct 2026 story “‘The $100 level is ours for awhile’: Oil won’t be getting cheap anytime soon, no matter what happens in the Gulf.” Reason on file: ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- CVX Chevron
For “‘The $100 level is ours for awhile’: Oil won’t be getting cheap anytime soon, no matter what happens in the Gulf,” Chevron (CVX) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- COP Conocophillips
For “‘The $100 level is ours for awhile’: Oil won’t be getting cheap anytime soon, no matter what happens in the Gulf,” Conocophillips (COP) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: ConocoPhillips (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- SHEL Shell
Shell (SHEL) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 29 Oct 2026 story “‘The $100 level is ours for awhile’: Oil won’t be getting cheap anytime soon, no matter what happens in the Gulf.” Reason on file: Shell (crude petroleum and natural gas): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- FRO Frontline
For “‘The $100 level is ours for awhile’: Oil won’t be getting cheap anytime soon, no matter what happens in the Gulf,” Frontline (FRO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Frontline (deep sea foreign transportation of freight): tanker owners earn more when more crude has to move by sea. Linked by “oil” (tanker shipping) in this story
United States Oil Fund (USO) and the energy link
The 29 Oct 2026 story “‘The $100 level is ours for awhile’: Oil won’t be getting cheap anytime soon, no matter what happens in the Gulf” names United States Oil Fund (USO) because of Middle East.
United States Oil Fund (USO) is on the page because United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
Also listed, Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE): Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
Price levels for United States Oil Fund (USO)
BWET traded between 788.51 and 1047.07 across 17 sessions. The latest close on file is 907.20. USO traded between 141.82 and 169.96 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 166.69. XLE traded between 61.05 and 69.86 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 68.46.
How strong the case is around United States Oil Fund (USO)
54 out of 100
“‘The $100 level is ours for awhile’: Oil won’t be getting cheap anytime soon, no matter what happens in the Gulf” scores 54 out of 100. The score uses 2 sources, and 8 linked companies.