The excitement around Moderna’s cancer vaccine is cooling. Here’s why.
Published . Updated .
Investors had “incredibly high” expectations around the Phase 3 data for the drugmaker’s experimental cancer treatment.
Directly affected
- MRNA Moderna+36.4% 30d
Named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- XLV Health Care Select Sector SPDR
Health Care Select Sector SPDR: it holds drugmakers and health companies. Linked by “vaccine” (pharma and health) in this story.
- XBI SPDR S&P Biotech ETF
SPDR S&P Biotech ETF: it holds drugmakers and health companies. Linked by “vaccine” (pharma and health) in this story.
- LLY Eli Lilly and+11.9% 30d
Eli Lilly and (pharmaceutical preparations): drugmakers move with drug pricing, approvals and health policy. Linked by “vaccine” (pharma and health) in this story.
- JNJ Johnson & Johnson-0.9% 30d
Johnson & Johnson (pharmaceutical preparations): drugmakers move with drug pricing, approvals and health policy. Linked by “vaccine” (pharma and health) in this story.
- PFE Pfizer+8.3% 30d
Pfizer (pharmaceutical preparations): drugmakers move with drug pricing, approvals and health policy. Linked by “vaccine” (pharma and health) in this story.
- MRK Merck+0.3% 13d
Merck (pharmaceutical preparations): drugmakers move with drug pricing, approvals and health policy. Linked by “vaccine” (pharma and health) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRNA | +13.36% | +22.89% | base | -1.22% | after close | after close | after close |
| XLV | -2.01% | -0.19% | base | +0.70% | after close | after close | after close |
| XBI | -1.12% | +2.16% | base | +0.58% | after close | after close | after close |
| LLY | -2.64% | -0.26% | base | +0.67% | after close | after close | after close |
| JNJ | -3.73% | -2.35% | base | +1.95% | after close | after close | after close |
| PFE | -1.93% | -0.50% | base | +0.17% | after close | after close | after close |
| MRK | -1.16% | +3.17% | base | -0.78% | after close | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
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Investors had “incredibly high” expectations around the Phase 3 data for the drugmaker’s experimental cancer treatment.
Source: MarketWatch
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLV)
Those 8 earlier stories put Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLV) at an average move of +0.12% the next day. Largest gain +0.85%, largest drop -0.25%, from 3 prices.
| Company | When | Average | Largest gain | Largest drop | Prices |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLV) | the next day | +0.12% | +0.85% | -0.25% | 3 |
| Spdr Series Trust (XBI) | the next day | -0.94% | -0.81% | -1.06% | 2 |
| Eli Lilly (LLY) | the next day | +0.01% | +1.71% | -1.70% | 2 |
| Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) | the next day | +0.13% | +3.20% | -3.86% | 3 |
| Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) | three days later | -3.24% | -3.24% | -3.24% | 1 |
- Americans Are Struggling to Pay Rising Medical Costs
- Melanoma Vaccine Ushers in New Hope for Cancer Patients
- Dimensional Fund Advisors Ltd. : Form 8.3 - SPIRE HEALTHCARE GROUP PLC - Ordinary Shares
- 8,527 Shares of Merck & Co., Inc. $MRK Acquired by Neumann Capital Management LLC
- 18,326 Merck & Co., Inc. $MRK Shares Sold by Ninety One UK Ltd
- 1,133,024 Merck & Co., Inc. $MRK Shares Sold by Assenagon Asset Management S.A.
The price since 26 Oct 2026: Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLV) versus the S&P 500
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) | that day | +1.95% | still updating |
| Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) | three days earlier | -2.35% | final price |
| Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) | five days earlier | -3.73% | final price |
| Eli Lilly (LLY) | that day | +0.67% | still updating |
| Eli Lilly (LLY) | three days earlier | -0.26% | final price |
| Eli Lilly (LLY) | five days earlier | -2.64% | final price |
| Merck (MRK) | that day | -0.78% | still updating |
| Merck (MRK) | three days earlier | +3.17% | final price |
| Merck (MRK) | five days earlier | -1.16% | final price |
| MRNA | that day | -1.22% | still updating |
| MRNA | three days earlier | +22.89% | final price |
| MRNA | five days earlier | +13.36% | final price |
| Pfizer (PFE) | that day | +0.17% | still updating |
| Pfizer (PFE) | three days earlier | -0.50% | final price |
| Pfizer (PFE) | five days earlier | -1.93% | final price |
| Spdr Series Trust (XBI) | that day | +0.58% | still updating |
| Spdr Series Trust (XBI) | three days earlier | +2.16% | final price |
| Spdr Series Trust (XBI) | five days earlier | -1.12% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLV) | that day | +0.70% | still updating |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLV) | three days earlier | -0.19% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLV) | five days earlier | -2.01% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar sold Moderna (MRNA), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 24 Sep 2026. That is 32 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Moderna (MRNA) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 4 Sep 2026. That is 52 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Moderna (MRNA), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 28 Aug 2026. That is 59 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Eli Lilly (LLY) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 4 Sep 2026. That is 52 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 25 Sep 2026. That is 31 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Lloyd Doggett bought Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 8 Sep 2026. That is 48 days before publication. Filed 5 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 4 Sep 2026. That is 52 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna sold Pfizer (PFE) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 4 Sep 2026. That is 52 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Pfizer (PFE), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 21 Aug 2026. That is 66 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Pfizer (PFE), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 31 Jul 2026. That is 87 days before publication. Filed 22 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar sold Merck (MRK), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 24 Sep 2026. That is 32 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar bought Merck (MRK), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 19 Aug 2026. That is 68 days before publication. Filed 9 Sep 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Who gains and who loses around Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLV)
Companies mentioned with this story
- XLV Select Sector Spdr Tr
For “The excitement around Moderna’s cancer vaccine is cooling. Here’s why.,” Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLV) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Health Care Select Sector SPDR: it holds drugmakers and health companies. Linked by “vaccine” (pharma and health) in this story
- XBI Spdr Series Trust
Spdr Series Trust (XBI) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 26 Oct 2026 story “The excitement around Moderna’s cancer vaccine is cooling. Here’s why..” Reason on file: SPDR S&P Biotech ETF: it holds drugmakers and health companies. Linked by “vaccine” (pharma and health) in this story
- LLY Eli Lilly
Eli Lilly (LLY) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 26 Oct 2026 story “The excitement around Moderna’s cancer vaccine is cooling. Here’s why..” Reason on file: Eli Lilly and (pharmaceutical preparations): drugmakers move with drug pricing, approvals and health policy. Linked by “vaccine” (pharma and health) in this story
- JNJ Johnson & Johnson
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 26 Oct 2026 story “The excitement around Moderna’s cancer vaccine is cooling. Here’s why..” Reason on file: Johnson & Johnson (pharmaceutical preparations): drugmakers move with drug pricing, approvals and health policy. Linked by “vaccine” (pharma and health) in this story
- PFE Pfizer
Pfizer (PFE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 26 Oct 2026 story “The excitement around Moderna’s cancer vaccine is cooling. Here’s why..” Reason on file: Pfizer (pharmaceutical preparations): drugmakers move with drug pricing, approvals and health policy. Linked by “vaccine” (pharma and health) in this story
- MRK Merck
For “The excitement around Moderna’s cancer vaccine is cooling. Here’s why.,” Merck (MRK) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Merck (pharmaceutical preparations): drugmakers move with drug pricing, approvals and health policy. Linked by “vaccine” (pharma and health) in this story
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLV)
On 26 Oct 2026, “The excitement around Moderna’s cancer vaccine is cooling. Here’s why.” is the story that connects Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLV) to this story.
What ties Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLV) to the headline is this: Health Care Select Sector SPDR: it holds drugmakers and health companies. Linked by “vaccine” (pharma and health) in this story
A second company, Spdr Series Trust (XBI), is listed for a different reason: SPDR S&P Biotech ETF: it holds drugmakers and health companies. Linked by “vaccine” (pharma and health) in this story
Dates and price levels for Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLV)
LLY traded between 1131.55 and 1321.17 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 1273.69. XBI traded between 152.63 and 158.97 across 2 sessions. The latest close on file is 154.01. XLV traded between 166.19 and 168.74 across 2 sessions. The latest close on file is 167.68.
What the saved facts support for Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLV)
46 out of 100Price not final
“The excitement around Moderna’s cancer vaccine is cooling. Here’s why.” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 6 linked companies. The price is not final yet.