The Fed. Blinked: The Fed, Oil and the Midterm Pause
Published . Updated .
DUMB MONEY IN A DUMBER MARKET. BOND MARKET WILL HUMBLE EVERYONE
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF-1.8% 30d
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
- IEF iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF-0.9% 30d
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
- USO United States Oil Fund+7.3% 30d
United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- JPM JPMorgan Chase-2.8% 30d
JPMorgan Chase (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
- BAC Bank of America-12.5% 30d
Bank of America (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
- DHI D.R. Horton+2.5% 30d
D.R. Horton (operative builders): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
- SCHW The Charles Schwab
The Charles Schwab (security brokers, dealers and flotation companies): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings+10.3% 14d
ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLTPrices arriving within minutes | — | — | — | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| IEFPrices arriving within minutes | — | — | — | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| USO | -2.52% | -0.26% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| JPMPrices arriving within minutes | — | — | — | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| BACPrices arriving within minutes | — | — | — | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| DHIPrices arriving within minutes | — | — | — | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| SCHWPrices arriving within minutes | — | — | — | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| XOM | -2.14% | +1.35% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
Market Call
Think this story will push the stock up or down over the next three trading days? Make a free call and see what other readers think. Points are play money with no cash value.
The Fed. Blinked: The Fed, Oil and the Midterm Pause Substack
Source: Substack
The price since 29 Oct 2026: United States Oil Fund (USO) versus the S&P 500
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | three days earlier | -0.26% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | five days earlier | -2.52% | final price |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | three days earlier | +1.35% | final price |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | five days earlier | -2.14% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Sen. John Boozman bought IEF (jointly held), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 9 Sep 2026. That is 50 days before publication. Filed 21 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse sold Jpmorgan Chase (JPM), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 4 Sep 2026. That is 55 days before publication. Filed 1 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse sold Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) (held by a spouse), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 4 Sep 2026. That is 55 days before publication. Filed 1 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) (held by a spouse), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 27 Aug 2026. That is 63 days before publication. Filed 4 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna sold Bank Of America (BAC) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 9 Sep 2026. That is 50 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Laurel Lee sold Bank Of America (BAC) (held by a spouse), worth $50,001 - $100,000 on 24 Aug 2026. That is 66 days before publication. Filed 16 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Horton D R (DHI), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 17 Aug 2026. That is 73 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) (jointly held), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 31 Aug 2026. That is 59 days before publication. Filed 25 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM), worth $250,001 - $500,000 on 31 Jul 2026. That is 90 days before publication. Filed 22 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold Chevron (CVX) (jointly held), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 23 Sep 2026. That is 36 days before publication. Filed 13 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar bought Chevron (CVX), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 2 Sep 2026. That is 57 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Chevron (CVX), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 26 Aug 2026. That is 64 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Who collects and who pays in energy
Companies tied to this story
- USO United States Oil Fund
United States Oil Fund (USO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 29 Oct 2026 story “The Fed. Blinked: The Fed, Oil and the Midterm Pause.” Reason on file: United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- XLE Select Sector Spdr Tr
For “The Fed. Blinked: The Fed, Oil and the Midterm Pause,” Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- TLT Ishares Tr
In “The Fed. Blinked: The Fed, Oil and the Midterm Pause,” Ishares Tr (TLT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings
ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 29 Oct 2026 story “The Fed. Blinked: The Fed, Oil and the Midterm Pause.” Reason on file: ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- CVX Chevron
For “The Fed. Blinked: The Fed, Oil and the Midterm Pause,” Chevron (CVX) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- COP Conocophillips
Conocophillips (COP) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 29 Oct 2026 story “The Fed. Blinked: The Fed, Oil and the Midterm Pause.” Reason on file: ConocoPhillips (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- JPM Jpmorgan Chase
In “The Fed. Blinked: The Fed, Oil and the Midterm Pause,” Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: JPMorgan Chase (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
- SHEL Shell
In “The Fed. Blinked: The Fed, Oil and the Midterm Pause,” Shell (SHEL) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Shell (crude petroleum and natural gas): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
How energy news reaches United States Oil Fund (USO)
“The Fed. Blinked: The Fed, Oil and the Midterm Pause” (29 Oct 2026) reaches United States Oil Fund (USO) through Energy.
The link for United States Oil Fund (USO) is this: United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
Also listed, Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE): Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
The price range for United States Oil Fund (USO), and the dates in the story
TLT traded between 76.44 and 81.94 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 79.46. USO traded between 141.82 and 169.96 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 166.69. XLE traded between 61.05 and 69.86 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 68.46.
A simple score for United States Oil Fund (USO)
46 out of 100
“The Fed. Blinked: The Fed, Oil and the Midterm Pause” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 8 linked companies.