The Iran War Isn't Over, but Oil Traders Are Already Pricing In Peace
Published . Updated .
Key takeaways
- Oil prices plunged 15% this week as hopes of a U.S.-Iran peace deal fueled bearish sentiment, despite continued attacks in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Exposed: USO, XLE, ITA, BWET, XOM
- Market reaction: XLE +0.5% on the day (still updating); USO −0.1% on the day (still updating); OXY +0.5% on the day (still updating)
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Oil prices plunged 15% this week as hopes of a U.S.-Iran peace deal fueled bearish sentiment, despite continued attacks in the Strait of Hormuz.
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- USO United States Oil Fund-5.0% 30d
United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR+6.9% 30d
Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- ITA iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF+1.1% 30d
iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “war” (defense) in this story.
- BWET Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF-3.3% 17d
Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF: it tracks tanker freight rates. Linked by “iran” (tanker shipping) in this story.
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings-2.7% 17d
ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- CVX Chevron+5.5% 30d
Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- COP ConocoPhillips+3.9% 19d
ConocoPhillips (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- SHEL Shell+3.5% 11d
Shell (crude petroleum and natural gas): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO | +13.96% | +6.75% | base | -0.11% | after close | after close | after close |
| XLE | +13.47% | +8.12% | base | +0.49% | after close | after close | after close |
| ITA | +2.67% | +5.93% | base | +0.15% | after close | after close | after close |
| BWET | +38.94% | +24.54% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| XOM | +13.27% | +7.37% | base | +0.36% | after close | after close | after close |
| CVX | +10.62% | +5.78% | base | +0.21% | after close | after close | after close |
| COP | +13.68% | +6.58% | base | +0.42% | after close | after close | after close |
| SHEL | +8.57% | +4.08% | base | -1.05% | after close | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
The Iran War Isn't Over, but Oil Traders Are Already Pricing In Peace Crude Oil Prices Today | OilPrice.com
How United States Oil Fund (USO) moved across the last 15 energy stories
Those 15 earlier stories put United States Oil Fund (USO) at an average move of +1.30% the next day. Largest gain +1.30%, largest drop +1.30%, from 15 prices.
| Company | When | Average | Largest gain | Largest drop | Prices |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | the next day | +1.30% | +1.30% | +1.30% | 15 |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | three days later | -5.11% | -5.11% | -5.11% | 13 |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | the next day | +2.25% | +2.25% | +2.25% | 15 |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | three days later | -2.57% | -2.57% | -2.57% | 8 |
| IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) | the next day | +0.98% | +0.98% | +0.98% | 3 |
| IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) | three days later | +4.19% | +4.19% | +4.19% | 3 |
| Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET) | the next day | +4.09% | +4.09% | +4.09% | 15 |
| Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET) | three days later | -6.70% | -6.70% | -6.70% | 15 |
- QatarEnergy buys U.S., other LNG supplies to hedge against future Strait of Hormuz disruptions
- Oil tanker struck by unknown projectile in Strait of Hormuz: UK maritime agency
- Iran claims four tankers hit mines in Hormuz as dhow crew rescued
- Three More Oil Tankers Erupt in Flames Near Strait of Hormuz
- Oil tanker catches fire after hitting naval mines near Strait of Hormuz: Iranian Navy
- QatarEnergy buys US, other LNG to hedge future Hormuz disruptions
How far United States Oil Fund (USO) has moved since 6 Nov 2026
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET) | three days earlier | +24.54% | final price |
| Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET) | five days earlier | +38.94% | final price |
| Conocophillips (COP) | that day | +0.42% | still updating |
| Conocophillips (COP) | three days earlier | +6.58% | final price |
| Conocophillips (COP) | five days earlier | +13.68% | final price |
| Chevron (CVX) | that day | +0.21% | still updating |
| Chevron (CVX) | three days earlier | +5.78% | final price |
| Chevron (CVX) | five days earlier | +10.62% | final price |
| IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) | that day | +0.15% | still updating |
| IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) | three days earlier | +5.93% | final price |
| IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) | five days earlier | +2.67% | final price |
| SHEL | that day | -1.05% | still updating |
| SHEL | three days earlier | +4.08% | final price |
| SHEL | five days earlier | +8.57% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | that day | -0.11% | still updating |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | three days earlier | +6.75% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | five days earlier | +13.96% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | that day | +0.49% | still updating |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | three days earlier | +8.12% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | five days earlier | +13.47% | final price |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | that day | +0.36% | still updating |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | three days earlier | +7.37% | final price |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | five days earlier | +13.27% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 23 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) (jointly held), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 31 Aug 2026. That is 67 days before publication. Filed 25 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Chevron (CVX), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 23 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold Chevron (CVX) (jointly held), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 23 Sep 2026. That is 44 days before publication. Filed 13 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar bought Chevron (CVX), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 2 Sep 2026. That is 65 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 26 Aug 2026. That is 72 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 24 Aug 2026. That is 74 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Conocophillips (COP), worth $1,000,001 - $5,000,000 on 21 Aug 2026. That is 77 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Occidental Petroleum (OXY), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 21 Aug 2026. That is 77 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
How busy Strait of Hormuz has been lately
Geopolitics Alpha has 170 stories about Strait of Hormuz from the past 7 days and 552 stories from the past 30. That is about its usual pace over the past month. “The Iran War Isn't Over, but Oil Traders Are Already Pricing In Peace” is tagged to Strait of Hormuz.
Who collects and who pays in energy
Likely winners
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings
In “The Iran War Isn't Over, but Oil Traders Are Already Pricing In Peace,” ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) tends to benefit, medium confidence. Reason on file: ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- CVX Chevron
For “The Iran War Isn't Over, but Oil Traders Are Already Pricing In Peace,” Chevron (CVX) tends to benefit, medium confidence. Reason on file: Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- OXY Occidental Petroleum
In “The Iran War Isn't Over, but Oil Traders Are Already Pricing In Peace,” Occidental Petroleum (OXY) tends to benefit, medium confidence. Reason on file: Occidental Petroleum (crude petroleum and natural gas): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
No up or down call on file
- USO United States Oil Fund
United States Oil Fund (USO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 6 Nov 2026 story “The Iran War Isn't Over, but Oil Traders Are Already Pricing In Peace.” Reason on file: United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- XLE Select Sector Spdr Tr
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 6 Nov 2026 story “The Iran War Isn't Over, but Oil Traders Are Already Pricing In Peace.” Reason on file: Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- ITA IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF
For “The Iran War Isn't Over, but Oil Traders Are Already Pricing In Peace,” IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “war” (defense) in this story
- BWET Amplify Commodity Trust
For “The Iran War Isn't Over, but Oil Traders Are Already Pricing In Peace,” Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF: it tracks tanker freight rates. Linked by “iran” (tanker shipping) in this story
How a Strait of Hormuz shock reaches United States Oil Fund (USO)
United States Oil Fund (USO) is the company in “The Iran War Isn't Over, but Oil Traders Are Already Pricing In Peace,” the 6 Nov 2026 Strait of Hormuz story.
The link for United States Oil Fund (USO) is this: United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is here too. Its reason reads: Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
Price levels for United States Oil Fund (USO)
ITA traded between 197.59 and 218.73 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 216.38. USO traded between 143.02 and 171.80 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 145.42. XLE traded between 63.05 and 70.15 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 66.70.
How solid the energy case looks
46 out of 100Price not final
“The Iran War Isn't Over, but Oil Traders Are Already Pricing In Peace” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 8 linked companies. The price is not final yet.