The last increase: market clings to hope of interest rate peak
Published . Updated .
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The Australian dollar fell and bonds rallied after the fifth cash rate rise this year. But a split vote has traders betting the central bank is done and dusted.
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- IAI iShares U.S. Broker-Dealers & Securities Exchanges ETF
iShares U.S. Broker-Dealers & Securities Exchanges ETF: it holds exchanges and brokers. Linked by “betting” (exchanges and trading) in this story.
- EWA iShares MSCI Australia ETF+0.2% 30d
iShares MSCI Australia ETF holds stocks listed in Australia, which this story is about (“australian”).
- BWX SPDR Bloomberg International Treasury Bond ETF
SPDR Bloomberg International Treasury Bond ETF holds government bonds outside the US, which react to inflation and interest-rate news like this one in Australia
- EFA iShares MSCI EAFE ETF-0.7% 6d
iShares MSCI EAFE ETF is a broad fund of developed-market stocks that includes Australia
- CME CME Group+4.0% 13d
CME Group (security and commodity brokers, dealers, exchanges and services): exchanges and brokers earn more when trading activity grows. Linked by “betting” (exchanges and trading) in this story.
- ICE Intercontinental Exchange+12.8% 30d
Intercontinental Exchange (security and commodity brokers, dealers, exchanges and services): exchanges and brokers earn more when trading activity grows. Linked by “betting” (exchanges and trading) in this story.
- CBOE Cboe Global Markets+30.0% 30d
Cboe Global Markets (security and commodity brokers, dealers, exchanges and services): exchanges and brokers earn more when trading activity grows. Linked by “betting” (exchanges and trading) in this story.
- NDAQ Nasdaq+14.2% 30d
Nasdaq (security and commodity brokers, dealers, exchanges and services): exchanges and brokers earn more when trading activity grows. Linked by “betting” (exchanges and trading) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IAI | -0.66% | +0.27% | base | +0.29% | +3.33% | -0.32% | -1.08% |
| EWA | +0.15% | +0.71% | base | -1.14% | +1.27% | -0.49% | -0.75% |
| BWX | -0.05% | -0.07% | base | -0.33% | +0.54% | +0.58% | +0.16% |
| EFA | -0.13% | +0.62% | base | -0.58% | +1.96% | -0.98% | -1.76% |
| CME | -4.18% | -3.22% | base | -0.76% | +0.36% | +0.29% | -0.11% |
| ICE | -9.80% | -5.40% | base | -0.80% | +1.56% | +1.00% | +0.01% |
| CBOE | -7.08% | -10.30% | base | -1.87% | -1.23% | +0.80% | +0.98% |
| NDAQ | -3.96% | -2.85% | base | -1.55% | +0.97% | -1.69% | -1.44% |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
The last increase: market clings to hope of interest rate peak AFR
Source: AFR
This story
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| BWX | that day | -0.33% | final price |
| BWX | the next day | +0.54% | final price |
| BWX | two days later | +0.58% | final price |
| BWX | three days later | +0.16% | final price |
| BWX | three days earlier | -0.07% | final price |
| BWX | five days earlier | -0.05% | final price |
| CBOE | that day | -1.87% | final price |
| CBOE | the next day | -1.23% | final price |
| CBOE | two days later | +0.80% | final price |
| CBOE | three days later | +0.98% | final price |
| CBOE | three days earlier | -10.30% | final price |
| CBOE | five days earlier | -7.08% | final price |
| CME | that day | -0.76% | final price |
| CME | the next day | +0.36% | final price |
| CME | two days later | +0.29% | final price |
| CME | three days later | -0.11% | final price |
| CME | three days earlier | -3.22% | final price |
| CME | five days earlier | -4.18% | final price |
| EFA | that day | -0.58% | final price |
| EFA | the next day | +1.96% | final price |
| EFA | two days later | -0.98% | final price |
| EFA | three days later | -1.76% | final price |
| EFA | three days earlier | +0.62% | final price |
| EFA | five days earlier | -0.13% | final price |
| EWA | that day | -1.14% | final price |
| EWA | the next day | +1.27% | final price |
| EWA | two days later | -0.49% | final price |
| EWA | three days later | -0.75% | final price |
| EWA | three days earlier | +0.71% | final price |
| EWA | five days earlier | +0.15% | final price |
| IAI | that day | +0.29% | final price |
| IAI | the next day | +3.33% | final price |
| IAI | two days later | -0.32% | final price |
| IAI | three days later | -1.08% | final price |
| IAI | three days earlier | +0.27% | final price |
| IAI | five days earlier | -0.66% | final price |
| ICE | that day | -0.80% | final price |
| ICE | the next day | +1.56% | final price |
| ICE | two days later | +1.00% | final price |
| ICE | three days later | +0.01% | final price |
| ICE | three days earlier | -5.40% | final price |
| ICE | five days earlier | -9.80% | final price |
| NDAQ | that day | -1.55% | final price |
| NDAQ | the next day | +0.97% | final price |
| NDAQ | two days later | -1.69% | final price |
| NDAQ | three days later | -1.44% | final price |
| NDAQ | three days earlier | -2.85% | final price |
| NDAQ | five days earlier | -3.96% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Sen. John Boozman sold EFA (jointly held), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 9 Sep 2026. That is 55 days before publication. Filed 21 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Cme Group (CME), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 17 Aug 2026. That is 78 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, sold Cme Group (CME), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 10 Aug 2026. That is 85 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. April McClain Delaney sold Nasdaq (NDAQ) (held by a dependent child), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 25 Aug 2026. That is 70 days before publication. Filed 9 Sep 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
This story
12 out of 100
“The last increase: market clings to hope of interest rate peak” scores 12 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources.