The Odds: The Rise and Fall of Inflation
Published . Updated .
Key takeaways
- CNN News Central’s Kate Bolduan and Chief data analyst Harry Enten explore what prediction markets are revealing about how Americans feel about the future of U.S.
- Exposed: TIP, XLP, WMT, COST, PG
- Market reaction: XLP −0.7% on the day (still updating); TIP −0.1% on the day (still updating); WMT −1.3% on the day (still updating)
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CNN News Central’s Kate Bolduan and Chief data analyst Harry Enten explore what prediction markets are revealing about how Americans feel about the future of U.S. inflation.
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- TIP iShares TIPS Bond ETF+0.4% 19d
iShares TIPS Bond ETF: it is a common hedge when prices rise. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story.
- XLP Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR-1.7% 9d
Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR: it is a common hedge when prices rise. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story.
- IAI iShares U.S. Broker-Dealers & Securities Exchanges ETF
iShares U.S. Broker-Dealers & Securities Exchanges ETF: it holds exchanges and brokers. Linked by “prediction market” (exchanges and trading) in this story.
- WMT Walmart+20.2% 30d
Walmart (variety stores): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story.
- COST Costco Wholesale+17.1% 30d
Costco Wholesale (variety stores): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story.
- PG The Procter & Gamble+16.0% 30d
The Procter & Gamble (soap, detergents, cleang preparations, perfumes, cosmetics): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story.
- KO The Coca-Cola+12.6% 30d
The Coca-Cola (beverages): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story.
- CME CME Group+4.6% 16d
CME Group (security and commodity brokers, dealers, exchanges and services): exchanges and brokers earn more when trading activity grows. Linked by “prediction market” (exchanges and trading) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TIP | +0.74% | +0.94% | base | -0.05% | after close | after close | after close |
| XLP | +1.01% | -1.04% | base | -0.67% | after close | after close | after close |
| IAINo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| WMT | +2.97% | -0.02% | base | -1.30% | after close | after close | after close |
| COST | -1.85% | -1.20% | base | +1.05% | after close | after close | after close |
| PG | -0.74% | -1.92% | base | -0.99% | after close | after close | after close |
| KO | -1.07% | -1.28% | base | -0.57% | after close | after close | after close |
| CMENo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
The Odds: The Rise and Fall of Inflation CNN
Source: CNN
Price since this story was published: Ishares Tr (TIP)
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Costco Wholesale (COST) | that day | +1.05% | still updating |
| Costco Wholesale (COST) | three days earlier | -1.20% | final price |
| Costco Wholesale (COST) | five days earlier | -1.85% | final price |
| Coca Cola (KO) | that day | -0.57% | still updating |
| Coca Cola (KO) | three days earlier | -1.28% | final price |
| Coca Cola (KO) | five days earlier | -1.07% | final price |
| Procter & Gamble (PG) | that day | -0.99% | still updating |
| Procter & Gamble (PG) | three days earlier | -1.92% | final price |
| Procter & Gamble (PG) | five days earlier | -0.74% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (TIP) | that day | -0.05% | still updating |
| Ishares Tr (TIP) | three days earlier | +0.94% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (TIP) | five days earlier | +0.74% | final price |
| Walmart (WMT) | that day | -1.30% | still updating |
| Walmart (WMT) | three days earlier | -0.02% | final price |
| Walmart (WMT) | five days earlier | +2.97% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLP) | that day | -0.67% | still updating |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLP) | three days earlier | -1.04% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLP) | five days earlier | +1.01% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Walmart (WMT) (held by a dependent child), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 13 Oct 2026. That is 29 days before publication. Filed 5 Nov 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna sold Walmart (WMT) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 7 Oct 2026. That is 35 days before publication. Filed 5 Nov 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Walmart (WMT) (held by a spouse), worth $50,001 - $100,000 on 2 Oct 2026. That is 40 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Costco Wholesale (COST), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 13 Oct 2026. That is 29 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Costco Wholesale (COST) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 12 Oct 2026. That is 30 days before publication. Filed 5 Nov 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Costco Wholesale (COST) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 7 Oct 2026. That is 35 days before publication. Filed 5 Nov 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar bought Procter & Gamble (PG), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 23 Oct 2026. That is 19 days before publication. Filed 5 Nov 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. David J. Taylor sold Procter & Gamble (PG), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 12 Oct 2026. That is 30 days before publication. Filed 15 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Procter & Gamble (PG), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 8 Oct 2026. That is 34 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern bought Coca Cola (KO) (jointly held), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 31 Aug 2026. That is 72 days before publication. Filed 25 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Cme Group (CME), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 17 Aug 2026. That is 86 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Who gains and who loses around Ishares Tr (TIP)
Companies mentioned with this story
- TIP Ishares Tr
For “The Odds: The Rise and Fall of Inflation,” Ishares Tr (TIP) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares TIPS Bond ETF: it is a common hedge when prices rise. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story
- XLP Select Sector Spdr Tr
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLP) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 11 Nov 2026 story “The Odds: The Rise and Fall of Inflation.” Reason on file: Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR: it is a common hedge when prices rise. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story
- WMT Walmart
Walmart (WMT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 11 Nov 2026 story “The Odds: The Rise and Fall of Inflation.” Reason on file: Walmart (variety stores): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story
- COST Costco Wholesale
In “The Odds: The Rise and Fall of Inflation,” Costco Wholesale (COST) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Costco Wholesale (variety stores): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story
- PG Procter & Gamble
Procter & Gamble (PG) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 11 Nov 2026 story “The Odds: The Rise and Fall of Inflation.” Reason on file: The Procter & Gamble (soap, detergents, cleang preparations, perfumes, cosmetics): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story
- KO Coca Cola
For “The Odds: The Rise and Fall of Inflation,” Coca Cola (KO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: The Coca-Cola (beverages): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story
How “The Odds: The Rise and Fall of Inflation” reaches Ishares Tr (TIP)
The 11 Nov 2026 story “The Odds: The Rise and Fall of Inflation” names Ishares Tr (TIP) because of this story.
Ishares Tr (TIP) is on the page because iShares TIPS Bond ETF: it is a common hedge when prices rise. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLP) is here too. Its reason reads: Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR: it is a common hedge when prices rise. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story
Dates in the story, and the Ishares Tr (TIP) price range
TIP traded between 103.77 and 105.61 across 16 sessions. The latest close on file is 105.27. WMT traded between 108.59 and 130.92 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 129.23. XLP traded between 80.10 and 82.50 across 6 sessions. The latest close on file is 81.02.
How strong the case is around Ishares Tr (TIP)
46 out of 100Price not final
“The Odds: The Rise and Fall of Inflation” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 6 linked companies. The price is not final yet.