The Strait of Hormuz: A Trap for Trump
Published . Updated .
Oil prices settled at $116 a barrel on the previous day, with the possibility of climbing further and surpassing $120. Meanwhile, U.S...
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- USO United States Oil Fund+13.9% 30d
United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR+12.1% 30d
Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- BWET Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF-3.3% 17d
Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF: it tracks tanker freight rates. Linked by “oil” (tanker shipping) in this story.
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings+13.4% 16d
ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- CVX Chevron+15.7% 30d
Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- COP ConocoPhillips+8.3% 30d
ConocoPhillips (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- SHEL Shell+0.1% 13d
Shell (crude petroleum and natural gas): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- FRO Frontline+14.2% 30d
Frontline (deep sea foreign transportation of freight): tanker owners earn more when more crude has to move by sea. Linked by “oil” (tanker shipping) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO | -5.13% | -5.78% | base | -1.59% | -3.69% | -1.69% | -1.37% |
| XLE | -2.19% | -1.69% | base | +0.30% | -1.51% | -1.24% | -0.87% |
| BWETNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| XOM | -2.72% | -2.80% | base | +0.41% | -1.64% | -0.62% | -0.44% |
| CVXNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| COPNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| SHELNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| FRO | -4.16% | -3.04% | base | +4.35% | +1.67% | +5.78% | +6.89% |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
Market Call
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The Strait of Hormuz: A Trap for Trump WANA News Agency
Source: WANA News Agency
Strait of Hormuz
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| FRO | that day | +4.35% | final price |
| FRO | the next day | +1.67% | final price |
| FRO | two days later | +5.78% | final price |
| FRO | three days later | +6.89% | final price |
| FRO | three days earlier | -3.04% | final price |
| FRO | five days earlier | -4.16% | final price |
| USO | that day | -1.59% | final price |
| USO | the next day | -3.69% | final price |
| USO | two days later | -1.69% | final price |
| USO | three days later | -1.37% | final price |
| USO | three days earlier | -5.78% | final price |
| USO | five days earlier | -5.13% | final price |
| XLE | that day | +0.30% | final price |
| XLE | the next day | -1.51% | final price |
| XLE | two days later | -1.24% | final price |
| XLE | three days later | -0.87% | final price |
| XLE | three days earlier | -1.69% | final price |
| XLE | five days earlier | -2.19% | final price |
| XOM | that day | +0.41% | final price |
| XOM | the next day | -1.64% | final price |
| XOM | two days later | -0.62% | final price |
| XOM | three days later | -0.44% | final price |
| XOM | three days earlier | -2.80% | final price |
| XOM | five days earlier | -2.72% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 11 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) (jointly held), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 31 Aug 2026. That is 55 days before publication. Filed 25 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM), worth $250,001 - $500,000 on 31 Jul 2026. That is 86 days before publication. Filed 22 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Chevron (CVX), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 11 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold Chevron (CVX) (jointly held), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 23 Sep 2026. That is 32 days before publication. Filed 13 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar bought Chevron (CVX), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 2 Sep 2026. That is 53 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 26 Aug 2026. That is 60 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 24 Aug 2026. That is 62 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Conocophillips (COP), worth $1,000,001 - $5,000,000 on 21 Aug 2026. That is 65 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Strait of Hormuz, seven days against thirty
Geopolitics Alpha has 182 stories about Strait of Hormuz from the past 7 days and 479 stories from the past 30. That is faster than its usual pace over the past month. “The Strait of Hormuz: A Trap for Trump” is tagged to Strait of Hormuz.
How solid the shipping case looks
12 out of 100
“The Strait of Hormuz: A Trap for Trump” scores 12 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources.