Trade the US midterms: election contracts vs. stocks
Published . Updated .
Want to trade the US midterms? Compare Kalshi election contracts with stocks, understand payouts and fees, and find House and Senate markets.
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- IAI iShares U.S. Broker-Dealers & Securities Exchanges ETF
iShares U.S. Broker-Dealers & Securities Exchanges ETF: it holds exchanges and brokers. Linked by “kalshi” (exchanges and trading) in this story.
- CME CME Group+2.7% 9d
CME Group (security and commodity brokers, dealers, exchanges and services): exchanges and brokers earn more when trading activity grows. Linked by “kalshi” (exchanges and trading) in this story.
- ICE Intercontinental Exchange+8.7% 30d
Intercontinental Exchange (security and commodity brokers, dealers, exchanges and services): exchanges and brokers earn more when trading activity grows. Linked by “kalshi” (exchanges and trading) in this story.
- CBOE Cboe Global Markets+23.9% 30d
Cboe Global Markets (security and commodity brokers, dealers, exchanges and services): exchanges and brokers earn more when trading activity grows. Linked by “kalshi” (exchanges and trading) in this story.
- NDAQ Nasdaq+12.2% 30d
Nasdaq (security and commodity brokers, dealers, exchanges and services): exchanges and brokers earn more when trading activity grows. Linked by “kalshi” (exchanges and trading) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IAINo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| CMENo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ICENo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| CBOENo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| NDAQNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
Market Call
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Trade the US midterms: election contracts vs. stocks Kalshi News
Source: Kalshi News
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Cme Group (CME), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 17 Aug 2026. That is 77 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, sold Cme Group (CME), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 10 Aug 2026. That is 84 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. April McClain Delaney sold Nasdaq (NDAQ) (held by a dependent child), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 25 Aug 2026. That is 69 days before publication. Filed 9 Sep 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Who gains and who loses around Spdr Dow Jones Industrial Average Etf Trust (DIA)
Companies carried with this story
- DIA Spdr Dow Jones Industrial Average Etf Trust
For “Trade the US midterms: election contracts vs. stocks,” Spdr Dow Jones Industrial Average Etf Trust (DIA) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF: it is a broad US stock-market fund. Linked by “stocks” (the broad US market) in this story
- QQQ Invesco Qqq Trust, Series 1
Invesco Qqq Trust, Series 1 (QQQ) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 2 Nov 2026 story “Trade the US midterms: election contracts vs. stocks.” Reason on file: Invesco QQQ: it is a broad US stock-market fund. Linked by “stocks” (the broad US market) in this story
- IWM Ishares Tr
In “Trade the US midterms: election contracts vs. stocks,” Ishares Tr (IWM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares Russell 2000 ETF: it is a broad US stock-market fund. Linked by “stocks” (the broad US market) in this story
- RSP Invesco Exchange Traded Fd T
Invesco Exchange Traded Fd T (RSP) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 2 Nov 2026 story “Trade the US midterms: election contracts vs. stocks.” Reason on file: Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF: it is a broad US stock-market fund. Linked by “stocks” (the broad US market) in this story
- VTI Vanguard Index Fds
For “Trade the US midterms: election contracts vs. stocks,” Vanguard Index Fds (VTI) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF: it is a broad US stock-market fund. Linked by “stocks” (the broad US market) in this story
How “Trade the US midterms: election contracts vs. stocks” reaches Spdr Dow Jones Industrial Average Etf Trust (DIA)
On 2 Nov 2026, “Trade the US midterms: election contracts vs. stocks” is the story that connects Spdr Dow Jones Industrial Average Etf Trust (DIA) to this story.
What ties Spdr Dow Jones Industrial Average Etf Trust (DIA) to the headline is this: SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF: it is a broad US stock-market fund. Linked by “stocks” (the broad US market) in this story
Invesco Qqq Trust, Series 1 (QQQ) is here too. Its reason reads: Invesco QQQ: it is a broad US stock-market fund. Linked by “stocks” (the broad US market) in this story
Dates and price levels for Spdr Dow Jones Industrial Average Etf Trust (DIA)
DIA traded between 504.92 and 522.62 across 18 sessions. The latest close on file is 515.65. IWM traded between 269.88 and 285.25 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 279.37. QQQ traded between 683.47 and 762.84 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 690.51.
How strong the case is around Spdr Dow Jones Industrial Average Etf Trust (DIA)
40 out of 100
“Trade the US midterms: election contracts vs. stocks” scores 40 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 5 linked companies.