Traders Place $430 Million Bet on Lower Oil Price Before Trump Ceasefire Extension
Published . Updated .
This report is about oil and defense.
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- USO United States Oil Fund+13.9% 30d
United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR+12.1% 30d
Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- ITA iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF-3.0% 30d
iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “ceasefire” (defense) in this story.
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings+13.4% 16d
ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- CVX Chevron+15.7% 30d
Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- COP ConocoPhillips+8.3% 30d
ConocoPhillips (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- SHEL Shell+0.1% 13d
Shell (crude petroleum and natural gas): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO | -1.54% | -1.29% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| XLE | -0.51% | -2.20% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| ITANo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| XOM | -1.45% | -2.77% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| CVX | -1.54% | -2.69% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| COP | -1.71% | -3.24% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| SHELNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
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Traders Place $430 Million Bet on Lower Oil Price Before Trump Ceasefire Extension EnergyNow.com
Source: EnergyNow.com
Price since this story was published: United States Oil Fund (USO)
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conocophillips (COP) | three days earlier | -3.24% | final price |
| Conocophillips (COP) | five days earlier | -1.71% | final price |
| Chevron (CVX) | three days earlier | -2.69% | final price |
| Chevron (CVX) | five days earlier | -1.54% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | three days earlier | -1.29% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | five days earlier | -1.54% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | three days earlier | -2.20% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | five days earlier | -0.51% | final price |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | three days earlier | -2.77% | final price |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | five days earlier | -1.45% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 18 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) (jointly held), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 31 Aug 2026. That is 62 days before publication. Filed 25 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Chevron (CVX), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 18 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold Chevron (CVX) (jointly held), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 23 Sep 2026. That is 39 days before publication. Filed 13 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar bought Chevron (CVX), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 2 Sep 2026. That is 60 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 26 Aug 2026. That is 67 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 24 Aug 2026. That is 69 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Conocophillips (COP), worth $1,000,001 - $5,000,000 on 21 Aug 2026. That is 72 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Who gains and who loses around United States Oil Fund (USO)
Companies mentioned with this story
- USO United States Oil Fund
For “Traders Place $430 Million Bet on Lower Oil Price Before Trump Ceasefire Extension,” United States Oil Fund (USO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- XLE Select Sector Spdr Tr
In “Traders Place $430 Million Bet on Lower Oil Price Before Trump Ceasefire Extension,” Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- ITA IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF
In “Traders Place $430 Million Bet on Lower Oil Price Before Trump Ceasefire Extension,” IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “ceasefire” (defense) in this story
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings
ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 1 Nov 2026 story “Traders Place $430 Million Bet on Lower Oil Price Before Trump Ceasefire Extension.” Reason on file: ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- CVX Chevron
For “Traders Place $430 Million Bet on Lower Oil Price Before Trump Ceasefire Extension,” Chevron (CVX) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- COP Conocophillips
In “Traders Place $430 Million Bet on Lower Oil Price Before Trump Ceasefire Extension,” Conocophillips (COP) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: ConocoPhillips (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- SHEL Shell
For “Traders Place $430 Million Bet on Lower Oil Price Before Trump Ceasefire Extension,” Shell (SHEL) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Shell (crude petroleum and natural gas): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
How energy news reaches United States Oil Fund (USO)
The 1 Nov 2026 story “Traders Place $430 Million Bet on Lower Oil Price Before Trump Ceasefire Extension” names United States Oil Fund (USO) because of Energy.
For United States Oil Fund (USO), the reason on file says United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
A second company, Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE), is listed for a different reason: Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
Dates and price levels for United States Oil Fund (USO)
ITA traded between 197.59 and 215.76 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 209.72. USO traded between 141.82 and 171.80 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 168.83. XLE traded between 62.06 and 70.15 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 70.00.
What the saved facts support for United States Oil Fund (USO)
46 out of 100
“Traders Place $430 Million Bet on Lower Oil Price Before Trump Ceasefire Extension” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 7 linked companies.