Treasury Yields Won’t Peak Until Recession Hits, T. Rowe Says
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This report is about US interest rates.
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF-2.8% 30d
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “treasury yields” (US interest rates) in this story.
- IEF iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF-1.2% 30d
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “treasury yields” (US interest rates) in this story.
- JPM JPMorgan Chase+0.1% 30d
JPMorgan Chase (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “treasury yields” (US interest rates) in this story.
- BAC Bank of America-11.4% 30d
Bank of America (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “treasury yields” (US interest rates) in this story.
- DHI D.R. Horton+8.0% 30d
D.R. Horton (operative builders): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “treasury yields” (US interest rates) in this story.
- SCHW The Charles Schwab
The Charles Schwab (security brokers, dealers and flotation companies): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “treasury yields” (US interest rates) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLT | -1.07% | -0.05% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| IEF | -0.68% | +0.21% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| JPM | -1.14% | -1.31% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| BAC | -1.83% | -1.53% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| DHI | -6.68% | +1.29% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| SCHW | -3.73% | -0.15% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
Treasury Yields Won’t Peak Until Recession Hits, T. Rowe Says Bloomberg.com
Source: Bloomberg
Price since this story was published: Ishares Tr (TLT)
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bank Of America (BAC) | three days earlier | -1.53% | final price |
| Bank Of America (BAC) | five days earlier | -1.83% | final price |
| Horton D R (DHI) | three days earlier | +1.29% | final price |
| Horton D R (DHI) | five days earlier | -6.68% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (IEF) | three days earlier | +0.21% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (IEF) | five days earlier | -0.68% | final price |
| Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) | three days earlier | -1.31% | final price |
| Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) | five days earlier | -1.14% | final price |
| Schwab Charles (SCHW) | three days earlier | -0.15% | final price |
| Schwab Charles (SCHW) | five days earlier | -3.73% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (TLT) | three days earlier | -0.05% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (TLT) | five days earlier | -1.07% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Sen. John Boozman bought Ishares Tr (IEF) (jointly held), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 9 Sep 2026. That is 62 days before publication. Filed 21 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) (held by a dependent child), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 15 Oct 2026. That is 26 days before publication. Filed 5 Nov 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) (held by a spouse), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 8 Oct 2026. That is 33 days before publication. Filed 5 Nov 2026. View the filing.
- Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse sold Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) (held by a spouse), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 4 Sep 2026. That is 67 days before publication. Filed 1 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Bank Of America (BAC) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 20 Oct 2026. That is 21 days before publication. Filed 5 Nov 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna sold Bank Of America (BAC) (held by a dependent child), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 13 Oct 2026. That is 28 days before publication. Filed 5 Nov 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna sold Bank Of America (BAC) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 9 Sep 2026. That is 62 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Horton D R (DHI), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 17 Aug 2026. That is 85 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Who gains and who loses around Ishares Tr (TLT)
Companies mentioned with this story
- TLT Ishares Tr
Ishares Tr (TLT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 10 Nov 2026 story “Treasury Yields Won’t Peak Until Recession Hits, T. Rowe Says.” Reason on file: iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “treasury yields” (US interest rates) in this story
- IEF Ishares Tr
For “Treasury Yields Won’t Peak Until Recession Hits, T. Rowe Says,” Ishares Tr (IEF) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “treasury yields” (US interest rates) in this story
- JPM Jpmorgan Chase
For “Treasury Yields Won’t Peak Until Recession Hits, T. Rowe Says,” Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: JPMorgan Chase (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “treasury yields” (US interest rates) in this story
- BAC Bank Of America
In “Treasury Yields Won’t Peak Until Recession Hits, T. Rowe Says,” Bank Of America (BAC) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Bank of America (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “treasury yields” (US interest rates) in this story
- DHI Horton D R
In “Treasury Yields Won’t Peak Until Recession Hits, T. Rowe Says,” Horton D R (DHI) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: D.R. Horton (operative builders): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “treasury yields” (US interest rates) in this story
- SCHW Schwab Charles
In “Treasury Yields Won’t Peak Until Recession Hits, T. Rowe Says,” Schwab Charles (SCHW) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: The Charles Schwab (security brokers, dealers and flotation companies): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “treasury yields” (US interest rates) in this story
Ishares Tr (TLT)
On 10 Nov 2026, “Treasury Yields Won’t Peak Until Recession Hits, T. Rowe Says” is the story that connects Ishares Tr (TLT) to this story.
Ishares Tr (TLT) is on the page because iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “treasury yields” (US interest rates) in this story
Ishares Tr (IEF) is here too. Its reason reads: iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “treasury yields” (US interest rates) in this story
Dates and price levels for Ishares Tr (TLT)
IEF traded between 88.64 and 90.69 across 16 sessions. The latest close on file is 90.08. JPM traded between 325.12 and 345.73 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 338.00. TLT traded between 76.44 and 80.56 across 16 sessions. The latest close on file is 79.46.
A simple score for Ishares Tr (TLT)
46 out of 100
“Treasury Yields Won’t Peak Until Recession Hits, T. Rowe Says” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 6 linked companies.