Trump’s Iran war has changed the future of Social Security
Published . Updated .
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It’s a mathematical certainty that the Iran war is going to have an enormous influence on the future of retirement in America.
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- ITA iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF+1.1% 30d
iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “war” (defense) in this story.
- XAR SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF-4.4% 30d
SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “war” (defense) in this story.
- USO United States Oil Fund-5.0% 30d
United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “iran” (oil) in this story.
- BWET Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF-3.3% 17d
Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF: it tracks tanker freight rates. Linked by “iran” (tanker shipping) in this story.
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings-2.7% 17d
ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “iran” (oil) in this story.
- CVX Chevron+5.5% 30d
Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “iran” (oil) in this story.
- COP ConocoPhillips+2.8% 30d
ConocoPhillips (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “iran” (oil) in this story.
- SHEL Shell+3.5% 11d
Shell (crude petroleum and natural gas): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “iran” (oil) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ITA | +0.76% | +0.87% | base | -4.75% | after close | after close | after close |
| XAR | +4.35% | +2.37% | base | -5.63% | after close | after close | after close |
| USO | +15.71% | +7.84% | base | +2.01% | after close | after close | after close |
| BWET | +32.30% | +28.62% | base | -4.77% | after close | after close | after close |
| XOM | +8.08% | +6.08% | base | -0.31% | after close | after close | after close |
| CVX | +6.66% | +5.01% | base | -0.29% | after close | after close | after close |
| COP | +9.55% | +7.27% | base | +0.87% | after close | after close | after close |
| SHEL | +5.73% | +3.06% | base | -0.57% | after close | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
It’s a mathematical certainty that the Iran war is going to have an enormous influence on the future of retirement in America.
Source: MarketWatch
Price since this story was published: IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA)
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET) | that day | -4.77% | still updating |
| Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET) | three days earlier | +28.62% | final price |
| Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET) | five days earlier | +32.30% | final price |
| Conocophillips (COP) | that day | +0.87% | still updating |
| Conocophillips (COP) | three days earlier | +7.27% | final price |
| Conocophillips (COP) | five days earlier | +9.55% | final price |
| Chevron (CVX) | that day | -0.29% | still updating |
| Chevron (CVX) | three days earlier | +5.01% | final price |
| Chevron (CVX) | five days earlier | +6.66% | final price |
| IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) | that day | -4.75% | still updating |
| IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) | three days earlier | +0.87% | final price |
| IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) | five days earlier | +0.76% | final price |
| Shell (SHEL) | that day | -0.57% | still updating |
| Shell (SHEL) | three days earlier | +3.06% | final price |
| Shell (SHEL) | five days earlier | +5.73% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | that day | +2.01% | still updating |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | three days earlier | +7.84% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | five days earlier | +15.71% | final price |
| Spdr Series Trust (XAR) | that day | -5.63% | still updating |
| Spdr Series Trust (XAR) | three days earlier | +2.37% | final price |
| Spdr Series Trust (XAR) | five days earlier | +4.35% | final price |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | that day | -0.31% | still updating |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | three days earlier | +6.08% | final price |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | five days earlier | +8.08% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 22 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) (jointly held), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 31 Aug 2026. That is 66 days before publication. Filed 25 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Chevron (CVX), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 22 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold Chevron (CVX) (jointly held), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 23 Sep 2026. That is 43 days before publication. Filed 13 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar bought Chevron (CVX), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 2 Sep 2026. That is 64 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 26 Aug 2026. That is 71 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 24 Aug 2026. That is 73 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Conocophillips (COP), worth $1,000,001 - $5,000,000 on 21 Aug 2026. That is 76 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Who collects and who pays in defense
Companies tied to this story
- ITA IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF
IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 5 Nov 2026 story “Trump’s Iran war has changed the future of Social Security.” Reason on file: iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “war” (defense) in this story
- XAR Spdr Series Trust
In “Trump’s Iran war has changed the future of Social Security,” Spdr Series Trust (XAR) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “war” (defense) in this story
- USO United States Oil Fund
In “Trump’s Iran war has changed the future of Social Security,” United States Oil Fund (USO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “iran” (oil) in this story
- BWET Amplify Commodity Trust
In “Trump’s Iran war has changed the future of Social Security,” Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF: it tracks tanker freight rates. Linked by “iran” (tanker shipping) in this story
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings
ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 5 Nov 2026 story “Trump’s Iran war has changed the future of Social Security.” Reason on file: ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “iran” (oil) in this story
- CVX Chevron
Chevron (CVX) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 5 Nov 2026 story “Trump’s Iran war has changed the future of Social Security.” Reason on file: Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “iran” (oil) in this story
- COP Conocophillips
Conocophillips (COP) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 5 Nov 2026 story “Trump’s Iran war has changed the future of Social Security.” Reason on file: ConocoPhillips (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “iran” (oil) in this story
- SHEL Shell
In “Trump’s Iran war has changed the future of Social Security,” Shell (SHEL) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Shell (crude petroleum and natural gas): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “iran” (oil) in this story
IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) and the defense link
“Trump’s Iran war has changed the future of Social Security” (5 Nov 2026) reaches IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) through Defense.
The link for IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) is this: iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “war” (defense) in this story
Spdr Series Trust (XAR) is here too. Its reason reads: SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “war” (defense) in this story
Price levels for IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA)
ITA traded between 197.59 and 218.73 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 216.38. USO traded between 143.02 and 171.80 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 145.42. XAR traded between 210.89 and 237.55 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 231.04.
The defense score for IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA)
46 out of 100Price not final
“Trump’s Iran war has changed the future of Social Security” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 8 linked companies. The price is not final yet.