Trump's midterm debacle: How tariffs, Iran war, hypocrisy towards India and his own politics came back to haunt Republicans
Published . Updated .
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This report is about tariffs and trade and defense.
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- XLI Industrial Select Sector SPDR-0.4% 30d
Industrial Select Sector SPDR: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- XRT SPDR S&P Retail ETF
SPDR S&P Retail ETF: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- ITA iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF+1.2% 30d
iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “war” (defense) in this story.
- USO United States Oil Fund-1.1% 30d
United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “iran” (oil) in this story.
- INDA iShares MSCI India ETF-3.8% 11d
iShares MSCI India ETF holds stocks listed in India, which this story is about (“india”).
- CAT Caterpillar-27.2% 30d
Caterpillar (construction machinery and equip): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- DE Deere+0.7% 30d
Deere (farm machinery and equipment): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- WMT Walmart+19.7% 30d
Walmart (variety stores): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLI | -1.66% | -2.29% | base | -1.11% | -5.04% | -5.06% | -1.03% |
| XRT | -2.30% | -0.06% | base | +5.53% | +2.35% | +0.77% | +4.47% |
| ITA | -4.02% | -3.08% | base | -1.67% | -5.60% | -4.31% | -0.65% |
| USO | +5.38% | +6.75% | base | -8.03% | -6.32% | -5.71% | -9.82% |
| INDA | -3.89% | -1.98% | base | +2.73% | +2.87% | +4.55% | +5.60% |
| CAT | +14.53% | -0.17% | base | -5.22% | -11.28% | -10.44% | -4.09% |
| DE | -3.81% | +1.40% | base | +1.42% | -0.19% | +1.10% | +4.47% |
| WMT | -4.79% | -1.04% | base | +4.22% | +2.90% | +0.48% | +0.64% |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
Trump's midterm debacle: How tariffs, Iran war, hypocrisy towards India and his own politics came back to haunt Republicans OpIndia
Source: OpIndia
Defense
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAT | that day | -5.22% | final price |
| CAT | the next day | -11.28% | final price |
| CAT | two days later | -10.44% | final price |
| CAT | three days later | -4.09% | final price |
| CAT | three days earlier | -0.17% | final price |
| CAT | five days earlier | +14.53% | final price |
| DE | that day | +1.42% | final price |
| DE | the next day | -0.19% | final price |
| DE | two days later | +1.10% | final price |
| DE | three days later | +4.47% | final price |
| DE | three days earlier | +1.40% | final price |
| DE | five days earlier | -3.81% | final price |
| INDA | that day | +2.73% | final price |
| INDA | the next day | +2.87% | final price |
| INDA | two days later | +4.55% | final price |
| INDA | three days later | +5.60% | final price |
| INDA | three days earlier | -1.98% | final price |
| INDA | five days earlier | -3.89% | final price |
| ITA | that day | -1.67% | final price |
| ITA | the next day | -5.60% | final price |
| ITA | two days later | -4.31% | final price |
| ITA | three days later | -0.65% | final price |
| ITA | three days earlier | -3.08% | final price |
| ITA | five days earlier | -4.02% | final price |
| USO | that day | -8.03% | final price |
| USO | the next day | -6.32% | final price |
| USO | two days later | -5.71% | final price |
| USO | three days later | -9.82% | final price |
| USO | three days earlier | +6.75% | final price |
| USO | five days earlier | +5.38% | final price |
| WMT | that day | +4.22% | final price |
| WMT | the next day | +2.90% | final price |
| WMT | two days later | +0.48% | final price |
| WMT | three days later | +0.64% | final price |
| WMT | three days earlier | -1.04% | final price |
| WMT | five days earlier | -4.79% | final price |
| XLI | that day | -1.11% | final price |
| XLI | the next day | -5.04% | final price |
| XLI | two days later | -5.06% | final price |
| XLI | three days later | -1.03% | final price |
| XLI | three days earlier | -2.29% | final price |
| XLI | five days earlier | -1.66% | final price |
| XRT | that day | +5.53% | final price |
| XRT | the next day | +2.35% | final price |
| XRT | two days later | +0.77% | final price |
| XRT | three days later | +4.47% | final price |
| XRT | three days earlier | -0.06% | final price |
| XRT | five days earlier | -2.30% | final price |
Congressional trades in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Lisa McClain bought Caterpillar (CAT) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 28 Sep 2026. That is 37 days before publication. Filed 12 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Walmart (WMT) (held by a dependent child), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 13 Oct 2026. That is 22 days before publication. Filed 5 Nov 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna sold Walmart (WMT) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 7 Oct 2026. That is 28 days before publication. Filed 5 Nov 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Walmart (WMT) (held by a spouse), worth $50,001 - $100,000 on 2 Oct 2026. That is 33 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
How solid the defense case looks
12 out of 100
“Trump's midterm debacle: How tariffs, Iran war, hypocrisy towards India and his own politics came back to haunt Republicans” scores 12 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources.