Geopolitics Alpha

Two wars, high fuel prices, and inflation

Published . Updated .

Key takeaways

  • What do two wars, high fuel prices, and inflation get you?
  • Exposed: USO, XLE, TIP, WMT, XOM
  • Market reaction: USO +3.4% on the day; XLE +1.5% on the day; XOM +1.8% on the day

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Two wars, high fuel prices, and inflation

What do two wars, high fuel prices, and inflation get you? A whole lot of angry voters! And I don’t blame them one bit. I’m angry, too, because these are

Directly affected

  • No company is named in this report.

Indirectly affected

  • USO United States Oil Fund-1.1% 30d

    United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “fuel prices” (oil) in this story.

  • XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR+7.5% 30d

    Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “fuel prices” (oil) in this story.

  • TIP iShares TIPS Bond ETF+0.7% 17d

    iShares TIPS Bond ETF: it is a common hedge when prices rise. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story.

  • WMT Walmart+19.7% 30d

    Walmart (variety stores): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story.

  • XOM ExxonMobil Holdings-2.7% 17d

    ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “fuel prices” (oil) in this story.

  • COST Costco Wholesale+18.8% 30d

    Costco Wholesale (variety stores): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story.

  • CVX Chevron+2.9% 30d

    Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “fuel prices” (oil) in this story.

  • PG The Procter & Gamble+16.4% 30d

    The Procter & Gamble (soap, detergents, cleang preparations, perfumes, cosmetics): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story.

Price reaction, T-5 to T+3

TickerT-5T-3T-1T0T+1T+2T+3
USO+4.74%+0.82%base+3.43%after closeafter closeafter close
XLE-2.64%-2.21%base+1.50%after closeafter closeafter close
TIP+0.93%+0.72%base-0.46%after closeafter closeafter close
WMT+1.59%-0.08%base+0.18%after closeafter closeafter close
XOM-0.81%-1.14%base+1.84%after closeafter closeafter close
COST-1.92%-1.90%base+0.51%after closeafter closeafter close
CVX-0.13%-1.13%base+1.51%after closeafter closeafter close
PG-0.34%+0.44%base+0.26%after closeafter closeafter close

Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.

Two wars, high fuel prices, and inflation Jonesboro Sun

Source: Jonesboro Sun

United States Oil Fund (USO) since this story, compared with the market

CompanyWhenMoveStatus
Costco Wholesale (COST)that day+0.51%final price
Costco Wholesale (COST)three days earlier-1.90%final price
Costco Wholesale (COST)five days earlier-1.92%final price
Chevron (CVX)that day+1.51%final price
Chevron (CVX)three days earlier-1.13%final price
Chevron (CVX)five days earlier-0.13%final price
Procter & Gamble (PG)that day+0.26%final price
Procter & Gamble (PG)three days earlier+0.44%final price
Procter & Gamble (PG)five days earlier-0.34%final price
Ishares Tr (TIP)that day-0.46%final price
Ishares Tr (TIP)three days earlier+0.72%final price
Ishares Tr (TIP)five days earlier+0.93%final price
United States Oil Fund (USO)that day+3.43%final price
United States Oil Fund (USO)three days earlier+0.82%final price
United States Oil Fund (USO)five days earlier+4.74%final price
Walmart (WMT)that day+0.18%final price
Walmart (WMT)three days earlier-0.08%final price
Walmart (WMT)five days earlier+1.59%final price
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE)that day+1.50%final price
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE)three days earlier-2.21%final price
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE)five days earlier-2.64%final price
ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM)that day+1.84%final price
ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM)three days earlier-1.14%final price
ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM)five days earlier-0.81%final price

Congressional trades in the stocks in this story

Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).

Companies in defense around United States Oil Fund (USO)

Companies mentioned with this story

  • USO United States Oil Fund

    For “Two wars, high fuel prices, and inflation,” United States Oil Fund (USO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “fuel prices” (oil) in this story

  • XLE Select Sector Spdr Tr

    Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 12 Nov 2026 story “Two wars, high fuel prices, and inflation.” Reason on file: Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “fuel prices” (oil) in this story

  • TIP Ishares Tr

    For “Two wars, high fuel prices, and inflation,” Ishares Tr (TIP) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares TIPS Bond ETF: it is a common hedge when prices rise. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story

  • WMT Walmart

    For “Two wars, high fuel prices, and inflation,” Walmart (WMT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Walmart (variety stores): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story

  • XOM ExxonMobil Holdings

    ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 12 Nov 2026 story “Two wars, high fuel prices, and inflation.” Reason on file: ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “fuel prices” (oil) in this story

  • COST Costco Wholesale

    For “Two wars, high fuel prices, and inflation,” Costco Wholesale (COST) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Costco Wholesale (variety stores): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story

  • CVX Chevron

    Chevron (CVX) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 12 Nov 2026 story “Two wars, high fuel prices, and inflation.” Reason on file: Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “fuel prices” (oil) in this story

  • PG Procter & Gamble

    In “Two wars, high fuel prices, and inflation,” Procter & Gamble (PG) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: The Procter & Gamble (soap, detergents, cleang preparations, perfumes, cosmetics): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story

How defense news reaches United States Oil Fund (USO)

“Two wars, high fuel prices, and inflation” (12 Nov 2026) reaches United States Oil Fund (USO) through Defense.

For United States Oil Fund (USO), the reason on file says United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “fuel prices” (oil) in this story

A second company, Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE), is listed for a different reason: Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “fuel prices” (oil) in this story

The price range for United States Oil Fund (USO), and the dates in the story

TIP traded between 103.77 and 105.61 across 15 sessions. The latest close on file is 105.27. USO traded between 143.02 and 171.80 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 148.41. XLE traded between 63.05 and 70.15 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 66.70.

How solid the defense case looks

46 out of 100

“Two wars, high fuel prices, and inflation” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 8 linked companies.