U.S. election: Implications for sports betting stocks and the prediction market industry
Published . Updated .
The U.S. midterm election on Tuesday has some implications for sports betting market stocks and the prediction market industry.The only straight sports betting measure on the November 3 ballot is in Nebraska, where initiative 440 is a constitutional amendment that would allow
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- IAI iShares U.S. Broker-Dealers & Securities Exchanges ETF
iShares U.S. Broker-Dealers & Securities Exchanges ETF: it holds exchanges and brokers. Linked by “prediction market” (exchanges and trading) in this story.
- CME CME Group+2.7% 9d
CME Group (security and commodity brokers, dealers, exchanges and services): exchanges and brokers earn more when trading activity grows. Linked by “prediction market” (exchanges and trading) in this story.
- ICE Intercontinental Exchange+8.7% 30d
Intercontinental Exchange (security and commodity brokers, dealers, exchanges and services): exchanges and brokers earn more when trading activity grows. Linked by “prediction market” (exchanges and trading) in this story.
- CBOE Cboe Global Markets+23.9% 30d
Cboe Global Markets (security and commodity brokers, dealers, exchanges and services): exchanges and brokers earn more when trading activity grows. Linked by “prediction market” (exchanges and trading) in this story.
- NDAQ Nasdaq+12.2% 30d
Nasdaq (security and commodity brokers, dealers, exchanges and services): exchanges and brokers earn more when trading activity grows. Linked by “prediction market” (exchanges and trading) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IAI | +0.59% | +0.72% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| CME | +1.59% | -3.00% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| ICE | -5.24% | -7.62% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| CBOE | -0.11% | -4.33% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| NDAQ | -1.44% | -0.61% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
Market Call
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U.S. election: Implications for sports betting stocks and the prediction market industry TradingView
Source: TradingView
The price since 1 Nov 2026: Ishares Tr (IAI) versus the S&P 500
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cboe Global Markets (CBOE) | three days earlier | -4.33% | final price |
| Cboe Global Markets (CBOE) | five days earlier | -0.11% | final price |
| Cme Group (CME) | three days earlier | -3.00% | final price |
| Cme Group (CME) | five days earlier | +1.59% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (IAI) | three days earlier | +0.72% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (IAI) | five days earlier | +0.59% | final price |
| Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) | three days earlier | -7.62% | final price |
| Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) | five days earlier | -5.24% | final price |
| Nasdaq (NDAQ) | three days earlier | -0.61% | final price |
| Nasdaq (NDAQ) | five days earlier | -1.44% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Cme Group (CME), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 17 Aug 2026. That is 76 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, sold Cme Group (CME), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 10 Aug 2026. That is 83 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. April McClain Delaney sold Nasdaq (NDAQ) (held by a dependent child), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 25 Aug 2026. That is 68 days before publication. Filed 9 Sep 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Who gains and who loses around Ishares Tr (IAI)
Companies mentioned with this story
- IAI Ishares Tr
Ishares Tr (IAI) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 1 Nov 2026 story “U.S. election: Implications for sports betting stocks and the prediction market industry.” Reason on file: iShares U.S. Broker-Dealers & Securities Exchanges ETF: it holds exchanges and brokers. Linked by “prediction market” (exchanges and trading) in this story
- CME Cme Group
For “U.S. election: Implications for sports betting stocks and the prediction market industry,” Cme Group (CME) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: CME Group (security and commodity brokers, dealers, exchanges and services): exchanges and brokers earn more when trading activity grows. Linked by “prediction market” (exchanges and trading) in this story
- ICE Intercontinental Exchange
For “U.S. election: Implications for sports betting stocks and the prediction market industry,” Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Intercontinental Exchange (security and commodity brokers, dealers, exchanges and services): exchanges and brokers earn more when trading activity grows. Linked by “prediction market” (exchanges and trading) in this story
- CBOE Cboe Global Markets
In “U.S. election: Implications for sports betting stocks and the prediction market industry,” Cboe Global Markets (CBOE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Cboe Global Markets (security and commodity brokers, dealers, exchanges and services): exchanges and brokers earn more when trading activity grows. Linked by “prediction market” (exchanges and trading) in this story
- NDAQ Nasdaq
Nasdaq (NDAQ) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 1 Nov 2026 story “U.S. election: Implications for sports betting stocks and the prediction market industry.” Reason on file: Nasdaq (security and commodity brokers, dealers, exchanges and services): exchanges and brokers earn more when trading activity grows. Linked by “prediction market” (exchanges and trading) in this story
Ishares Tr (IAI)
On 1 Nov 2026, “U.S. election: Implications for sports betting stocks and the prediction market industry” is the story that connects Ishares Tr (IAI) to this story.
Ishares Tr (IAI) is on the page because iShares U.S. Broker-Dealers & Securities Exchanges ETF: it holds exchanges and brokers. Linked by “prediction market” (exchanges and trading) in this story
A second company, Cme Group (CME), is listed for a different reason: CME Group (security and commodity brokers, dealers, exchanges and services): exchanges and brokers earn more when trading activity grows. Linked by “prediction market” (exchanges and trading) in this story
Dates in the story, and the Ishares Tr (IAI) price range
CME traded between 290.48 and 309.31 across 9 sessions. The latest close on file is 303.20. ICE traded between 147.61 and 169.90 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 168.86.
A simple score for Ishares Tr (IAI)
40 out of 100
“U.S. election: Implications for sports betting stocks and the prediction market industry” scores 40 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 5 linked companies.