Geopolitics Alpha

U.S. midterm results raise hopes of tariff relief for Canada’s aluminum sector

Published . Updated .

Key takeaways

  • Tariffs of 50 per cent have prompted some Canadian producers to redirect shipments from U.S.
  • Exposed: PICK, XME, XLI, EWC, CAT
  • Market reaction: PICK +2.3% on the day; XME −1.0% on the day; CAT −5.2% on the day

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U.S. midterm results raise hopes of tariff relief for Canada’s aluminum sector

Tariffs of 50 per cent have prompted some Canadian producers to redirect shipments from U.S. to Europe

Directly affected

  • No company is named in this report.

Indirectly affected

  • XLI Industrial Select Sector SPDR-0.3% 30d

    Industrial Select Sector SPDR: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.

  • XRT SPDR S&P Retail ETF

    SPDR S&P Retail ETF: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.

  • PICK iShares MSCI Global Metals & Mining Producers ETF-9.1% 30d

    iShares MSCI Global Metals & Mining Producers ETF: it holds metals and mining companies. Linked by “aluminum” (metals & mining) in this story.

  • EWC iShares MSCI Canada ETF+0.9% 30d

    iShares MSCI Canada ETF holds stocks listed in Canada, which this story is about (“canada”).

  • VGK Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF

    Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF holds stocks listed in Europe, which this story is about (“europe”).

  • CAT Caterpillar-23.2% 30d

    Caterpillar (construction machinery and equip): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.

  • DE Deere-2.9% 30d

    Deere (farm machinery and equipment): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.

  • WMT Walmart+12.9% 30d

    Walmart (variety stores): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.

Price reaction, T-5 to T+3

TickerT-5T-3T-1T0T+1T+2T+3
XLI-1.66%-2.29%base-1.11%after closeafter closeafter close
XRTNo price data for this ticker———————
PICK+4.04%+0.64%base+2.26%after closeafter closeafter close
EWC+2.17%+0.68%base+2.65%after closeafter closeafter close
VGKNo price data for this ticker———————
CAT+14.53%-0.17%base-5.22%after closeafter closeafter close
DE-3.81%+1.40%base+1.55%after closeafter closeafter close
WMTNo price data for this ticker———————

Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.

U.S. midterm results raise hopes of tariff relief for Canada’s aluminum sector The Globe and Mail

Source: The Globe and Mail

Price since this story was published: Ishares Msci Global Metals & Mining (PICK)

CompanyWhenMoveStatus
Caterpillar (CAT)that day-5.22%final price
Caterpillar (CAT)three days earlier-0.17%final price
Caterpillar (CAT)five days earlier+14.53%final price
Deere (DE)that day+1.55%final price
Deere (DE)three days earlier+1.40%final price
Deere (DE)five days earlier-3.81%final price
Ishares Msci Canada Etf (EWC)that day+2.65%final price
Ishares Msci Canada Etf (EWC)three days earlier+0.68%final price
Ishares Msci Canada Etf (EWC)five days earlier+2.17%final price
Ishares Msci Global Metals & Mining (PICK)that day+2.26%final price
Ishares Msci Global Metals & Mining (PICK)three days earlier+0.64%final price
Ishares Msci Global Metals & Mining (PICK)five days earlier+4.04%final price
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI)that day-1.11%final price
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI)three days earlier-2.29%final price
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI)five days earlier-1.66%final price

Congressional trades in the stocks in this story

Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).

Who gains and who loses around Ishares Msci Global Metals & Mining (PICK)

Companies tied to this story

  • PICK Ishares Msci Global Metals & Mining

    Ishares Msci Global Metals & Mining (PICK) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 4 Nov 2026 story “U.S. midterm results raise hopes of tariff relief for Canada’s aluminum sector.” Reason on file: iShares MSCI Global Metals & Mining Producers ETF: it holds metals and mining companies. Linked by “aluminum” (metals & mining) in this story

  • XME Spdr Series Trust

    For “U.S. midterm results raise hopes of tariff relief for Canada’s aluminum sector,” Spdr Series Trust (XME) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF: it holds metals and mining companies. Linked by “aluminum” (metals & mining) in this story

  • XLI Select Sector Spdr Tr

    In “U.S. midterm results raise hopes of tariff relief for Canada’s aluminum sector,” Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Industrial Select Sector SPDR: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story

  • EWC Ishares Msci Canada Etf

    Ishares Msci Canada Etf (EWC) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 4 Nov 2026 story “U.S. midterm results raise hopes of tariff relief for Canada’s aluminum sector.” Reason on file: iShares MSCI Canada ETF holds stocks listed in Canada, which this story is about (“canada”)

  • CAT Caterpillar

    For “U.S. midterm results raise hopes of tariff relief for Canada’s aluminum sector,” Caterpillar (CAT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Caterpillar (construction machinery and equip): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story

  • FCX Freeport-Mcmoran

    Freeport-Mcmoran (FCX) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 4 Nov 2026 story “U.S. midterm results raise hopes of tariff relief for Canada’s aluminum sector.” Reason on file: Freeport-McMoRan (metal mining): miners' profits move with metal prices. Linked by “aluminum” (metals & mining) in this story

  • BHP BHP Group

    In “U.S. midterm results raise hopes of tariff relief for Canada’s aluminum sector,” BHP Group (BHP) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: BHP Group (metal mining): miners' profits move with metal prices. Linked by “aluminum” (metals & mining) in this story

  • DE Deere

    For “U.S. midterm results raise hopes of tariff relief for Canada’s aluminum sector,” Deere (DE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Deere (farm machinery and equipment): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story

Ishares Msci Global Metals & Mining (PICK)

On 4 Nov 2026, “U.S. midterm results raise hopes of tariff relief for Canada’s aluminum sector” is the story that connects Ishares Msci Global Metals & Mining (PICK) to this story.

The link for Ishares Msci Global Metals & Mining (PICK) is this: iShares MSCI Global Metals & Mining Producers ETF: it holds metals and mining companies. Linked by “aluminum” (metals & mining) in this story

Spdr Series Trust (XME) is here too. Its reason reads: SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF: it holds metals and mining companies. Linked by “aluminum” (metals & mining) in this story

The price range for Ishares Msci Global Metals & Mining (PICK), and the dates in the story

PICK traded between 54.38 and 61.57 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 56.72. XLI traded between 163.00 and 172.33 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 169.73. XME traded between 95.15 and 109.02 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 97.66.

How strong the case is around Ishares Msci Global Metals & Mining (PICK)

46 out of 100

“U.S. midterm results raise hopes of tariff relief for Canada’s aluminum sector” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 8 linked companies.