U.S. oil-refinery stocks are up roughly 150% this year. How long could this historic run last?
Published . Updated .
Analyst predicts the ‘mother of all maintenance seasons’ for refineries that have been running at high capacity
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- CRAK VanEck Oil Refiners ETF
VanEck Oil Refiners ETF: it holds refiners, whose margins move with fuel prices. Linked by “refinery” (refining) in this story.
- XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR+6.9% 30d
Energy Select Sector SPDR: it holds refiners, whose margins move with fuel prices. Linked by “refinery” (refining) in this story.
- USO United States Oil Fund+9.3% 30d
United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- VLO Valero Energy+0.5% 30d
Valero Energy (petroleum refining): refiners' margins move with crude and fuel prices. Linked by “refinery” (refining) in this story.
- MPC Marathon Petroleum+10.0% 8d
Marathon Petroleum (petroleum refining): refiners' margins move with crude and fuel prices. Linked by “refinery” (refining) in this story.
- PSX Phillips 66+8.4% 30d
Phillips 66 (petroleum refining): refiners' margins move with crude and fuel prices. Linked by “refinery” (refining) in this story.
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings+10.9% 15d
ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- CVX Chevron+10.5% 30d
Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRAKNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| XLE | -1.29% | +1.72% | base | +0.37% | +2.25% | after close | after close |
| USO | -2.52% | -0.26% | base | +0.32% | +1.30% | after close | after close |
| VLO | +9.72% | +9.74% | base | -2.04% | +2.98% | after close | after close |
| MPC | +4.26% | +6.82% | base | -3.49% | +0.91% | after close | after close |
| PSXNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| XOM | -2.14% | +1.35% | base | +0.18% | +2.84% | after close | after close |
| CVX | -1.18% | +1.19% | base | +0.93% | +2.77% | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
Market Call
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Analyst predicts the ‘mother of all maintenance seasons’ for refineries that have been running at high capacity
Source: MarketWatch
Energy
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| CVX | that day | +0.93% | final price |
| CVX | the next day | +2.77% | final price |
| CVX | three days earlier | +1.19% | final price |
| CVX | five days earlier | -1.18% | final price |
| MPC | that day | -3.49% | final price |
| MPC | the next day | +0.91% | final price |
| MPC | three days earlier | +6.82% | final price |
| MPC | five days earlier | +4.26% | final price |
| USO | that day | +0.32% | final price |
| USO | the next day | +1.30% | final price |
| USO | three days earlier | -0.26% | final price |
| USO | five days earlier | -2.52% | final price |
| VLO | that day | -2.04% | final price |
| VLO | the next day | +2.98% | final price |
| VLO | three days earlier | +9.74% | final price |
| VLO | five days earlier | +9.72% | final price |
| XLE | that day | +0.37% | final price |
| XLE | the next day | +2.25% | final price |
| XLE | three days earlier | +1.72% | final price |
| XLE | five days earlier | -1.29% | final price |
| XOM | that day | +0.18% | final price |
| XOM | the next day | +2.84% | final price |
| XOM | three days earlier | +1.35% | final price |
| XOM | five days earlier | -2.14% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Rep. David J. Taylor sold Marathon Petroleum (MPC), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 22 Sep 2026. That is 36 days before publication. Filed 1 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 14 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) (jointly held), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 31 Aug 2026. That is 58 days before publication. Filed 25 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM), worth $250,001 - $500,000 on 31 Jul 2026. That is 89 days before publication. Filed 22 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Chevron (CVX), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 14 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold Chevron (CVX) (jointly held), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 23 Sep 2026. That is 35 days before publication. Filed 13 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar bought Chevron (CVX), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 2 Sep 2026. That is 56 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
How solid the energy case looks
25 out of 100
“U.S. oil-refinery stocks are up roughly 150% this year. How long could this historic run last?” scores 25 out of 100. The score uses 2 sources.