Geopolitics Alpha

U.S. Sanctions Turkmenistan’s Trans-Iran Gas Trade. Could Azerbaijan Be Next?

Published . Updated .

Key takeaways

  • Perhaps so, If Companies Pursue Swaps with Iranian Gas Without Authorization, or Utilize Russian Imports
  • Exposed: UNG, XLE, USO, BWET, XOM
  • Market reaction: XLE +1.6% on the day (still updating); UNG +1.1% on the day (still updating); BWET +4.9% on the day (still updating)

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U.S. Sanctions Turkmenistan’s Trans-Iran Gas Trade. Could Azerbaijan Be Next?

Perhaps so, If Companies Pursue Swaps with Iranian Gas Without Authorization, or Utilize Russian Imports

Directly affected

  • No company is named in this report.

Indirectly affected

  • UNG United States Natural Gas Fund-13.5% 30d

    United States Natural Gas Fund: it follows natural-gas prices. Linked by “gas” (natural gas) in this story.

  • XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR+6.9% 30d

    Energy Select Sector SPDR: it follows natural-gas prices. Linked by “gas” (natural gas) in this story.

  • USO United States Oil Fund-1.1% 30d

    United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “iran” (oil) in this story.

  • BWET Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF-3.3% 17d

    Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF: it tracks tanker freight rates. Linked by “iran” (tanker shipping) in this story.

  • XOM ExxonMobil Holdings-2.7% 17d

    ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “iran” (oil) in this story.

  • CVX Chevron+3.3% 30d

    Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “iran” (oil) in this story.

  • LNG Cheniere Energy+9.1% 30d

    Cheniere Energy (natural gas distribution): gas producers and exporters earn more when gas prices rise. Linked by “gas” (natural gas) in this story.

  • WMB The Williams Companies

    The Williams Companies (natural gas transmission): gas producers and exporters earn more when gas prices rise. Linked by “gas” (natural gas) in this story.

Price reaction, T-5 to T+3

TickerT-5T-3T-1T0T+1T+2T+3
UNG-10.81%-10.24%base+1.15%after closeafter closeafter close
XLE+2.11%-0.95%base+1.57%after closeafter closeafter close
USO+2.78%+4.95%base+2.37%after closeafter closeafter close
BWET+35.67%+29.19%base+4.90%after closeafter closeafter close
XOM+3.07%+0.89%base+1.25%after closeafter closeafter close
CVX+2.73%+0.67%base+0.78%after closeafter closeafter close
LNG-0.51%-5.27%base+2.39%after closeafter closeafter close
WMB+0.59%-5.03%base+1.78%after closeafter closeafter close

Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.

U.S. Sanctions Turkmenistan’s Trans-Iran Gas Trade. Could Azerbaijan Be Next? Middle East Forum

Source: Middle East Forum

The price since 11 Nov 2026: United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) versus the S&P 500

CompanyWhenMoveStatus
Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET)that day+4.90%still updating
Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET)three days earlier+29.19%final price
Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET)five days earlier+35.67%final price
Chevron (CVX)that day+0.78%still updating
Chevron (CVX)three days earlier+0.67%final price
Chevron (CVX)five days earlier+2.73%final price
Cheniere Energy (LNG)that day+2.39%still updating
Cheniere Energy (LNG)three days earlier-5.27%final price
Cheniere Energy (LNG)five days earlier-0.51%final price
United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG)that day+1.15%still updating
United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG)three days earlier-10.24%final price
United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG)five days earlier-10.81%final price
United States Oil Fund (USO)that day+2.37%still updating
United States Oil Fund (USO)three days earlier+4.95%final price
United States Oil Fund (USO)five days earlier+2.78%final price
WMBthat day+1.78%still updating
WMBthree days earlier-5.03%final price
WMBfive days earlier+0.59%final price
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE)that day+1.57%still updating
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE)three days earlier-0.95%final price
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE)five days earlier+2.11%final price
ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM)that day+1.25%still updating
ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM)three days earlier+0.89%final price
ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM)five days earlier+3.07%final price

Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story

Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).

Who gains and who loses around United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG)

Likely winners

  • XOM ExxonMobil Holdings

    ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) tends to benefit, medium confidence in the 11 Nov 2026 story “U.S. Sanctions Turkmenistan’s Trans-Iran Gas Trade. Could Azerbaijan Be Next?.” Reason on file: ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “iran” (oil) in this story

  • CVX Chevron

    Chevron (CVX) tends to benefit, medium confidence in the 11 Nov 2026 story “U.S. Sanctions Turkmenistan’s Trans-Iran Gas Trade. Could Azerbaijan Be Next?.” Reason on file: Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “iran” (oil) in this story

No up or down call on file

  • UNG United States Natural Gas Fund

    For “U.S. Sanctions Turkmenistan’s Trans-Iran Gas Trade. Could Azerbaijan Be Next?,” United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: United States Natural Gas Fund: it follows natural-gas prices. Linked by “gas” (natural gas) in this story

  • XLE Select Sector Spdr Tr

    Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 11 Nov 2026 story “U.S. Sanctions Turkmenistan’s Trans-Iran Gas Trade. Could Azerbaijan Be Next?.” Reason on file: Energy Select Sector SPDR: it follows natural-gas prices. Linked by “gas” (natural gas) in this story

  • USO United States Oil Fund

    For “U.S. Sanctions Turkmenistan’s Trans-Iran Gas Trade. Could Azerbaijan Be Next?,” United States Oil Fund (USO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “iran” (oil) in this story

  • BWET Amplify Commodity Trust

    Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 11 Nov 2026 story “U.S. Sanctions Turkmenistan’s Trans-Iran Gas Trade. Could Azerbaijan Be Next?.” Reason on file: Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF: it tracks tanker freight rates. Linked by “iran” (tanker shipping) in this story

United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG)

“U.S. Sanctions Turkmenistan’s Trans-Iran Gas Trade. Could Azerbaijan Be Next?” (11 Nov 2026) reaches United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) through this story.

What ties United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) to the headline is this: United States Natural Gas Fund: it follows natural-gas prices. Linked by “gas” (natural gas) in this story

Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is here too. Its reason reads: Energy Select Sector SPDR: it follows natural-gas prices. Linked by “gas” (natural gas) in this story

Dates in the story, and the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) price range

UNG traded between 8.95 and 11.43 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 9.34. USO traded between 143.02 and 171.80 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 148.41. XLE traded between 63.05 and 70.15 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 66.70.

What the saved facts support for United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG)

46 out of 100Price not final

“U.S. Sanctions Turkmenistan’s Trans-Iran Gas Trade. Could Azerbaijan Be Next?” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 8 linked companies. The price is not final yet.