Geopolitics Alpha

U.S. Stock Futures Gain as Oil Drop Offsets Nvidia Slump; Inflation Data Awaited

Published . Updated .

Key takeaways

  • Exposed: USO, XLE, SMH, TIP, NVDA
  • Market reaction: USO −3.9% on the day; XLE +0.6% on the day; SMH +5.1% on the day

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ENERGYU.S. Stock Futures Gain as OilDrop Offsets Nvidia Slump;Inflation Data AwaitedNVDAGEOPOLITICS ALPHA

This report is about oil and semiconductors.

Directly affected

  • NVDA Nvidia-8.4% 30d

    Named in this report.

Indirectly affected

  • USO United States Oil Fund-1.1% 30d

    United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.

  • XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR+6.9% 30d

    Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.

  • SMH VanEck Semiconductor ETF-16.4% 30d

    VanEck Semiconductor ETF: it holds chipmakers. Linked by “nvidia” (semiconductors) in this story.

  • TIP iShares TIPS Bond ETF-0.3% 30d

    iShares TIPS Bond ETF: it is a common hedge when prices rise. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story.

  • ASML ASML Holding N.V-9.0% 12d

    ASML Holding N.V (special industry machinery): chip demand, export rules and supply drive chipmakers' shares. Linked by “nvidia” (semiconductors) in this story.

  • TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing-9.5% 30d

    Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (semiconductors and related devices): chip demand, export rules and supply drive chipmakers' shares. Linked by “nvidia” (semiconductors) in this story.

  • XOM ExxonMobil Holdings-2.7% 17d

    ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.

  • CVX Chevron+3.0% 30d

    Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.

Price reaction, T-5 to T+3

TickerT-5T-3T-1T0T+1T+2T+3
NVDA+8.30%+7.21%base-4.60%after closeafter closeafter close
USO+5.62%-2.06%base-3.90%after closeafter closeafter close
XLE+9.12%+3.08%base+0.56%after closeafter closeafter close
SMH+9.57%+8.79%base+5.09%after closeafter closeafter close
TIP+0.09%-0.20%base-0.25%after closeafter closeafter close
ASML+7.09%+5.03%base+6.21%after closeafter closeafter close
TSM+6.26%+5.43%base+3.61%after closeafter closeafter close
XOM+8.37%+2.16%base-0.67%after closeafter closeafter close
CVX+7.15%+2.05%base-1.18%after closeafter closeafter close

Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.

U.S. Stock Futures Gain as Oil Drop Offsets Nvidia Slump; Inflation Data Awaited Barchart.com

Source: Barchart.com

The price since 9 Nov 2026: United States Oil Fund (USO) versus the S&P 500

CompanyWhenMoveStatus
ASMLthat day+6.21%final price
ASMLthree days earlier+5.03%final price
ASMLfive days earlier+7.09%final price
Chevron (CVX)that day-1.18%final price
Chevron (CVX)three days earlier+2.05%final price
Chevron (CVX)five days earlier+7.15%final price
Nvidia (NVDA)that day-4.60%final price
Nvidia (NVDA)three days earlier+7.21%final price
Nvidia (NVDA)five days earlier+8.30%final price
Vaneck Etf Trust (SMH)that day+5.09%final price
Vaneck Etf Trust (SMH)three days earlier+8.79%final price
Vaneck Etf Trust (SMH)five days earlier+9.57%final price
Ishares Tr (TIP)that day-0.25%final price
Ishares Tr (TIP)three days earlier-0.20%final price
Ishares Tr (TIP)five days earlier+0.09%final price
TSMthat day+3.61%final price
TSMthree days earlier+5.43%final price
TSMfive days earlier+6.26%final price
United States Oil Fund (USO)that day-3.90%final price
United States Oil Fund (USO)three days earlier-2.06%final price
United States Oil Fund (USO)five days earlier+5.62%final price
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE)that day+0.56%final price
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE)three days earlier+3.08%final price
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE)five days earlier+9.12%final price
ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM)that day-0.67%final price
ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM)three days earlier+2.16%final price
ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM)five days earlier+8.37%final price

Congressional trades in the stocks in this story

Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).

United States Oil Fund (USO) on one side of this energy story

Companies tied to this story

  • USO United States Oil Fund

    United States Oil Fund (USO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 9 Nov 2026 story “U.S. Stock Futures Gain as Oil Drop Offsets Nvidia Slump; Inflation Data Awaited.” Reason on file: United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story

  • XLE Select Sector Spdr Tr

    Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 9 Nov 2026 story “U.S. Stock Futures Gain as Oil Drop Offsets Nvidia Slump; Inflation Data Awaited.” Reason on file: Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story

  • SMH Vaneck Etf Trust

    Vaneck Etf Trust (SMH) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 9 Nov 2026 story “U.S. Stock Futures Gain as Oil Drop Offsets Nvidia Slump; Inflation Data Awaited.” Reason on file: VanEck Semiconductor ETF: it holds chipmakers. Linked by “nvidia” (semiconductors) in this story

  • TIP Ishares Tr

    For “U.S. Stock Futures Gain as Oil Drop Offsets Nvidia Slump; Inflation Data Awaited,” Ishares Tr (TIP) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares TIPS Bond ETF: it is a common hedge when prices rise. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story

  • NVDA Nvidia

    Nvidia (NVDA) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 9 Nov 2026 story “U.S. Stock Futures Gain as Oil Drop Offsets Nvidia Slump; Inflation Data Awaited.” Reason on file: Nvidia (semiconductors and related devices): chip demand, export rules and supply drive chipmakers' shares. Linked by “nvidia” (semiconductors) in this story

  • XOM ExxonMobil Holdings

    ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 9 Nov 2026 story “U.S. Stock Futures Gain as Oil Drop Offsets Nvidia Slump; Inflation Data Awaited.” Reason on file: ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story

  • CVX Chevron

    In “U.S. Stock Futures Gain as Oil Drop Offsets Nvidia Slump; Inflation Data Awaited,” Chevron (CVX) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story

  • COP Conocophillips

    Conocophillips (COP) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 9 Nov 2026 story “U.S. Stock Futures Gain as Oil Drop Offsets Nvidia Slump; Inflation Data Awaited.” Reason on file: ConocoPhillips (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story

How energy news reaches United States Oil Fund (USO)

United States Oil Fund (USO) is the company in “U.S. Stock Futures Gain as Oil Drop Offsets Nvidia Slump; Inflation Data Awaited,” the 9 Nov 2026 Energy story.

For United States Oil Fund (USO), the reason on file says United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story

A second company, Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE), is listed for a different reason: Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story

The price range for United States Oil Fund (USO), and the dates in the story

SMH traded between 506.51 and 639.33 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 508.07. USO traded between 143.02 and 171.80 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 148.41. XLE traded between 63.05 and 70.15 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 66.70.

How solid the energy case looks

46 out of 100

“U.S. Stock Futures Gain as Oil Drop Offsets Nvidia Slump; Inflation Data Awaited” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 8 linked companies.