Geopolitics Alpha

Ukrainian Drone Attack Sparks Fire at Russia's Key Baltic Oil Export Hub

Published . Updated .

Key takeaways

  • Exposed: USO, XLE, ITA, UNG, XOM
  • Market reaction: USO +2.4% on the day (still updating); XLE +1.6% on the day (still updating); COP +1.4% on the day (still updating)

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ENERGY · BALTIC SEAUkrainian Drone Attack Sparks Fireat Russia's Key Baltic Oil ExportHubGEOPOLITICS ALPHA

This report is about oil and defense.

Directly affected

  • No company is named in this report.

Indirectly affected

  • USO United States Oil Fund-1.1% 30d

    United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.

  • XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR+6.9% 30d

    Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.

  • ITA iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF+1.1% 30d

    iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “drone” (defense) in this story.

  • UNG United States Natural Gas Fund-13.5% 30d

    United States Natural Gas Fund: it follows natural-gas prices. Linked by “russia” (natural gas) in this story.

  • XOM ExxonMobil Holdings-2.7% 17d

    ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.

  • CVX Chevron+3.3% 30d

    Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.

  • COP ConocoPhillips+4.8% 30d

    ConocoPhillips (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.

  • SHEL Shell+1.1% 9d

    Shell (crude petroleum and natural gas): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.

Price reaction, T-5 to T+3

TickerT-5T-3T-1T0T+1T+2T+3
USO+2.78%+4.95%base+2.37%after closeafter closeafter close
XLE+2.11%-0.95%base+1.57%after closeafter closeafter close
ITA-2.04%-4.68%base+0.51%after closeafter closeafter close
UNG-10.81%-10.24%base+1.15%after closeafter closeafter close
XOM+3.07%+0.89%base+1.25%after closeafter closeafter close
CVX+2.73%+0.67%base+0.78%after closeafter closeafter close
COP+0.96%+0.52%base+1.36%after closeafter closeafter close
SHEL+4.68%+1.86%base+0.63%after closeafter closeafter close

Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.

Ukrainian Drone Attack Sparks Fire at Russia's Key Baltic Oil Export Hub Crude Oil Prices Today | OilPrice.com

Source: Crude Oil Prices Today | OilPrice.com

How United States Oil Fund (USO) moved across the last 9 energy stories

United States Oil Fund (USO) the next day, across 9 earlier stories: average -3.57%, largest gain +0.26%, largest drop -7.20%, from 6 prices.

CompanyWhenAverageLargest gainLargest dropPrices
United States Oil Fund (USO)the next day-3.57%+0.26%-7.20%6
United States Oil Fund (USO)three days later-3.87%+5.37%-13.51%6
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE)the next day-2.33%+0.52%-5.58%6
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE)three days later-3.58%+2.23%-11.35%5
IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA)the next day+0.47%+4.01%-1.48%4
IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA)three days later+0.17%+4.12%-2.53%4
United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG)the next day+0.44%+0.44%+0.44%1
United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG)three days later+1.98%+1.98%+1.98%1

How far United States Oil Fund (USO) has moved since 11 Nov 2026

CompanyWhenMoveStatus
Conocophillips (COP)that day+1.36%still updating
Conocophillips (COP)three days earlier+0.52%final price
Conocophillips (COP)five days earlier+0.96%final price
Chevron (CVX)that day+0.78%still updating
Chevron (CVX)three days earlier+0.67%final price
Chevron (CVX)five days earlier+2.73%final price
IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA)that day+0.51%still updating
IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA)three days earlier-4.68%final price
IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA)five days earlier-2.04%final price
Shell (SHEL)that day+0.63%still updating
Shell (SHEL)three days earlier+1.86%final price
Shell (SHEL)five days earlier+4.68%final price
United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG)that day+1.15%still updating
United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG)three days earlier-10.24%final price
United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG)five days earlier-10.81%final price
United States Oil Fund (USO)that day+2.37%still updating
United States Oil Fund (USO)three days earlier+4.95%final price
United States Oil Fund (USO)five days earlier+2.78%final price
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE)that day+1.57%still updating
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE)three days earlier-0.95%final price
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE)five days earlier+2.11%final price
ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM)that day+1.25%still updating
ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM)three days earlier+0.89%final price
ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM)five days earlier+3.07%final price

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Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).

Where this story sits: Baltic Sea

Baltic Sea

Geopolitics Alpha has 3 stories about Baltic Sea from the past 7 days and 14 stories from the past 30. That is about its usual pace over the past month. “Ukrainian Drone Attack Sparks Fire at Russia's Key Baltic Oil Export Hub” is tagged to Baltic Sea.

United States Oil Fund (USO) on one side of this energy story

Companies mentioned with this story

  • USO United States Oil Fund

    United States Oil Fund (USO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 11 Nov 2026 story “Ukrainian Drone Attack Sparks Fire at Russia's Key Baltic Oil Export Hub.” Reason on file: United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story

  • XLE Select Sector Spdr Tr

    For “Ukrainian Drone Attack Sparks Fire at Russia's Key Baltic Oil Export Hub,” Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story

  • ITA IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF

    For “Ukrainian Drone Attack Sparks Fire at Russia's Key Baltic Oil Export Hub,” IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “drone” (defense) in this story

  • UNG United States Natural Gas Fund

    United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 11 Nov 2026 story “Ukrainian Drone Attack Sparks Fire at Russia's Key Baltic Oil Export Hub.” Reason on file: United States Natural Gas Fund: it follows natural-gas prices. Linked by “russia” (natural gas) in this story

  • XOM ExxonMobil Holdings

    ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 11 Nov 2026 story “Ukrainian Drone Attack Sparks Fire at Russia's Key Baltic Oil Export Hub.” Reason on file: ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story

  • CVX Chevron

    For “Ukrainian Drone Attack Sparks Fire at Russia's Key Baltic Oil Export Hub,” Chevron (CVX) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story

  • COP Conocophillips

    For “Ukrainian Drone Attack Sparks Fire at Russia's Key Baltic Oil Export Hub,” Conocophillips (COP) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: ConocoPhillips (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story

  • SHEL Shell

    For “Ukrainian Drone Attack Sparks Fire at Russia's Key Baltic Oil Export Hub,” Shell (SHEL) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Shell (crude petroleum and natural gas): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story

From Baltic Sea to United States Oil Fund (USO)

United States Oil Fund (USO) is the company in “Ukrainian Drone Attack Sparks Fire at Russia's Key Baltic Oil Export Hub,” the 11 Nov 2026 Baltic Sea story.

For United States Oil Fund (USO), the reason on file says United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story

A second company, Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE), is listed for a different reason: Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story

What this energy story puts on the calendar

ITA traded between 197.59 and 218.73 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 216.38. USO traded between 143.02 and 171.80 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 148.41. XLE traded between 63.05 and 70.15 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 66.70.

How strong the case is around United States Oil Fund (USO)

46 out of 100Price not final

“Ukrainian Drone Attack Sparks Fire at Russia's Key Baltic Oil Export Hub” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 8 linked companies. The price is not final yet.