Geopolitics Alpha

Ukrainian Drones Fire Russia’s Second-Largest Refinery, Squeezing 30% of Capacity

Published . Updated .

Key takeaways

  • Takeaways Up Front 1.
  • Exposed: CRAK, XLE, ITA, VLO, MPC
  • Market reaction: CRAK +1.9% on the day (still updating); XLE +1.6% on the day (still updating); VLO +3.1% on the day (still updating)

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Ukrainian Drones Fire Russia’s Second-Largest Refinery, Squeezing 30% of Capacity

Takeaways Up Front 1. Ukrainian drones struck the Kirishi (KINEF) refinery in Russia’s Leningrad region overnight November 9, igniting fires at the

Directly affected

  • No company is named in this report.

Indirectly affected

  • CRAK VanEck Oil Refiners ETF

    VanEck Oil Refiners ETF: it holds refiners, whose margins move with fuel prices. Linked by “refinery” (refining) in this story.

  • XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR+6.9% 30d

    Energy Select Sector SPDR: it holds refiners, whose margins move with fuel prices. Linked by “refinery” (refining) in this story.

  • ITA iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF+1.1% 30d

    iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “drones” (defense) in this story.

  • VLO Valero Energy-11.1% 30d

    Valero Energy (petroleum refining): refiners' margins move with crude and fuel prices. Linked by “refinery” (refining) in this story.

  • MPC Marathon Petroleum-0.9% 16d

    Marathon Petroleum (petroleum refining): refiners' margins move with crude and fuel prices. Linked by “refinery” (refining) in this story.

  • PSX Phillips 66-1.8% 30d

    Phillips 66 (petroleum refining): refiners' margins move with crude and fuel prices. Linked by “refinery” (refining) in this story.

  • XOM ExxonMobil Holdings-2.7% 17d

    ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): refiners' margins move with crude and fuel prices. Linked by “refinery” (refining) in this story.

Price reaction, T-5 to T+3

TickerT-5T-3T-1T0T+1T+2T+3
CRAK+4.45%-1.14%base+1.90%after closeafter closeafter close
XLE+2.11%-0.95%base+1.57%after closeafter closeafter close
ITA-2.04%-4.68%base+0.51%after closeafter closeafter close
VLO+4.18%-1.21%base+3.12%after closeafter closeafter close
MPC+0.73%-4.30%base+2.11%after closeafter closeafter close
PSX+3.60%-2.02%base+2.31%after closeafter closeafter close
XOM+3.07%+0.89%base+1.25%after closeafter closeafter close

Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.

Ukrainian Drones Fire Russia’s Second-Largest Refinery, Squeezing 30% of Capacity The SOFX Report

Source: The SOFX Report

The price since 11 Nov 2026: Vaneck Etf Trust (CRAK) versus the S&P 500

CompanyWhenMoveStatus
Vaneck Etf Trust (CRAK)that day+1.90%still updating
Vaneck Etf Trust (CRAK)three days earlier-1.14%final price
Vaneck Etf Trust (CRAK)five days earlier+4.45%final price
IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA)that day+0.51%still updating
IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA)three days earlier-4.68%final price
IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA)five days earlier-2.04%final price
Marathon Petroleum (MPC)that day+2.11%still updating
Marathon Petroleum (MPC)three days earlier-4.30%final price
Marathon Petroleum (MPC)five days earlier+0.73%final price
Phillips 66 (PSX)that day+2.31%still updating
Phillips 66 (PSX)three days earlier-2.02%final price
Phillips 66 (PSX)five days earlier+3.60%final price
Valero Energy (VLO)that day+3.12%still updating
Valero Energy (VLO)three days earlier-1.21%final price
Valero Energy (VLO)five days earlier+4.18%final price
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE)that day+1.57%still updating
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE)three days earlier-0.95%final price
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE)five days earlier+2.11%final price
ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM)that day+1.25%still updating
ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM)three days earlier+0.89%final price
ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM)five days earlier+3.07%final price

Congressional trades in the stocks in this story

Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).

Vaneck Etf Trust (CRAK) on one side of this energy story

Companies carried with this story

  • CRAK Vaneck Etf Trust

    In “Ukrainian Drones Fire Russia’s Second-Largest Refinery, Squeezing 30% of Capacity,” Vaneck Etf Trust (CRAK) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: VanEck Oil Refiners ETF: it holds refiners, whose margins move with fuel prices. Linked by “refinery” (refining) in this story

  • XLE Select Sector Spdr Tr

    For “Ukrainian Drones Fire Russia’s Second-Largest Refinery, Squeezing 30% of Capacity,” Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Energy Select Sector SPDR: it holds refiners, whose margins move with fuel prices. Linked by “refinery” (refining) in this story

  • ITA IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF

    For “Ukrainian Drones Fire Russia’s Second-Largest Refinery, Squeezing 30% of Capacity,” IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “drones” (defense) in this story

  • VLO Valero Energy

    In “Ukrainian Drones Fire Russia’s Second-Largest Refinery, Squeezing 30% of Capacity,” Valero Energy (VLO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Valero Energy (petroleum refining): refiners' margins move with crude and fuel prices. Linked by “refinery” (refining) in this story

  • MPC Marathon Petroleum

    Marathon Petroleum (MPC) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 11 Nov 2026 story “Ukrainian Drones Fire Russia’s Second-Largest Refinery, Squeezing 30% of Capacity.” Reason on file: Marathon Petroleum (petroleum refining): refiners' margins move with crude and fuel prices. Linked by “refinery” (refining) in this story

  • PSX Phillips 66

    Phillips 66 (PSX) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 11 Nov 2026 story “Ukrainian Drones Fire Russia’s Second-Largest Refinery, Squeezing 30% of Capacity.” Reason on file: Phillips 66 (petroleum refining): refiners' margins move with crude and fuel prices. Linked by “refinery” (refining) in this story

  • XOM ExxonMobil Holdings

    For “Ukrainian Drones Fire Russia’s Second-Largest Refinery, Squeezing 30% of Capacity,” ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): refiners' margins move with crude and fuel prices. Linked by “refinery” (refining) in this story

Vaneck Etf Trust (CRAK) and the energy link

“Ukrainian Drones Fire Russia’s Second-Largest Refinery, Squeezing 30% of Capacity” (11 Nov 2026) reaches Vaneck Etf Trust (CRAK) through Energy.

For Vaneck Etf Trust (CRAK), the reason on file says VanEck Oil Refiners ETF: it holds refiners, whose margins move with fuel prices. Linked by “refinery” (refining) in this story

A second company, Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE), is listed for a different reason: Energy Select Sector SPDR: it holds refiners, whose margins move with fuel prices. Linked by “refinery” (refining) in this story

Dates and price levels for Vaneck Etf Trust (CRAK)

ITA traded between 197.59 and 218.73 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 216.38. XLE traded between 63.05 and 70.15 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 66.70.

How strong the case is around Vaneck Etf Trust (CRAK)

46 out of 100Price not final

“Ukrainian Drones Fire Russia’s Second-Largest Refinery, Squeezing 30% of Capacity” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 7 linked companies. The price is not final yet.