Understanding underlying inflation trends
Published . Updated .
The September 2026 quarter inflation headline looked better than expected at first glance, but the more we looked through the details, the more concerning underlying inflation trends appeared.
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond-1.8%
Long-term bonds move when yields change
- IEF iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond-0.9%
Treasury bonds move when yields change
- SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond-0.3%
Short-term bonds move when the Fed changes rates
- SPY SPDR S&P 500+1.6%
Stocks move when the Fed changes the rate path
- JPM JPMorgan Chase-4.3%
Bank profits move with lending and interest rates
- BAC Bank of America-18.8%
Bank profits move with lending and interest rates
- GS Goldman Sachs-8.5%
Bank profits move with lending and interest rates
- XLF Financial Select Sector SPDR-3.9%
A fund of financial companies
- KRE SPDR S&P Regional Banking-4.4%
Regional banks are sensitive to interest rates
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLT | -2.07% | -1.97% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| IEF | -0.86% | -1.06% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| SHY | -0.17% | -0.26% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| SPY | -0.09% | +0.66% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| JPM | +0.94% | -0.37% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| BAC | +0.26% | -0.84% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| GS | -1.19% | -0.72% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| XLF | -2.05% | -1.68% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| KRE | -3.51% | -2.40% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
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Understanding underlying inflation trends Infometrics
Source: Infometrics
This story
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAC | three days earlier | -0.84% | final price |
| BAC | five days earlier | +0.26% | final price |
| GS | three days earlier | -0.72% | final price |
| GS | five days earlier | -1.19% | final price |
| IEF | three days earlier | -1.06% | final price |
| IEF | five days earlier | -0.86% | final price |
| JPM | three days earlier | -0.37% | final price |
| JPM | five days earlier | +0.94% | final price |
| KRE | three days earlier | -2.40% | final price |
| KRE | five days earlier | -3.51% | final price |
| SHY | three days earlier | -0.26% | final price |
| SHY | five days earlier | -0.17% | final price |
| SPY | three days earlier | +0.66% | final price |
| SPY | five days earlier | -0.09% | final price |
| TLT | three days earlier | -1.97% | final price |
| TLT | five days earlier | -2.07% | final price |
| XLF | three days earlier | -1.68% | final price |
| XLF | five days earlier | -2.05% | final price |
Congressional trades in the stocks in this story
- Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse sold Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) (held by a spouse), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 4 Sep 2026. That is 48 days before publication. Filed 1 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse sold Jpmorgan Chase (JPM), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 4 Sep 2026. That is 48 days before publication. Filed 1 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) (held by a spouse), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 27 Aug 2026. That is 56 days before publication. Filed 4 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna sold Bank Of America (BAC) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 9 Sep 2026. That is 43 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Laurel Lee sold Bank Of America (BAC) (held by a spouse), worth $50,001 - $100,000 on 24 Aug 2026. That is 59 days before publication. Filed 16 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar sold Goldman Sachs Group (GS), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 24 Sep 2026. That is 28 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael Rulli bought Goldman Sachs Group (GS), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 3 Sep 2026. That is 49 days before publication. Filed 2 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Gilbert Cisneros bought Goldman Sachs Group (GS), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 26 Aug 2026. That is 57 days before publication. Filed 10 Sep 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
How solid “Understanding underlying inflation trends” looks
12 out of 100
“Understanding underlying inflation trends” scores 12 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources.