Geopolitics Alpha

US CONSUMER 5-YEAR INFLATION EXPECTATIONS 3.4% IN NOV. PRELIMINARY VS. 3.5% IN OCT. FINAL, 3.4% IN SEPT. FINAL

Published . Updated .

Key takeaways

  • Select market data provided by ICE Data Services .
  • Exposed: TIP, XLP, XRT, WMT, AMZN
  • Market reaction: XLP −0.9% on the day (still updating); TIP +0.0% on the day (still updating); WMT −2.1% on the day (still updating)

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US CONSUMER 5-YEAR INFLATION EXPECTATIONS 3.4% IN NOV. PRELIMINARY VS. 3.5% IN OCT. FINAL, 3.4% IN SEPT. FINAL

Select market data provided by ICE Data Services . Select reference data provided by FactSet. Copyright © 2026 FactSet Research Systems Inc. Copyright © 2026, American Bankers Association. CUSIP Database provided by FactSet Research Systems Inc. All rights reserved. SEC filings

Directly affected

  • FDS Factset Research Systems

    Named in this report.

Indirectly affected

  • TIP iShares TIPS Bond ETF

    iShares TIPS Bond ETF: it is a common hedge when prices rise. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story.

  • XLP Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR

    Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR: it is a common hedge when prices rise. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story.

  • XRT SPDR S&P Retail ETF

    SPDR S&P Retail ETF: it holds retailers. Linked by “consumer” (retail and consumer goods) in this story.

  • WMT Walmart

    Walmart (variety stores): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story.

  • AMZN Amazon.com

    Amazon.com (catalog and mail-order houses): retailers move with shopper spending and import costs. Linked by “consumer” (retail and consumer goods) in this story.

  • COST Costco Wholesale

    Costco Wholesale (variety stores): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story.

  • PG The Procter & Gamble

    The Procter & Gamble (soap, detergents, cleang preparations, perfumes, cosmetics): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story.

  • KO The Coca-Cola

    The Coca-Cola (beverages): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story.

Price reaction, T-5 to T+3

TickerT-5T-3T-1T0T+1T+2T+3
FDSNo price data for this ticker———————
TIP+0.43%-0.14%base+0.03%after closeafter closeafter close
XLP-2.05%-2.55%base-0.92%after closeafter closeafter close
XRT-2.55%-2.49%base-0.31%after closeafter closeafter close
WMT-3.29%-2.27%base-2.09%after closeafter closeafter close
AMZN-7.79%-3.81%base+1.13%after closeafter closeafter close
COST-5.04%-4.40%base-0.95%after closeafter closeafter close
PG-3.29%-3.00%base-0.89%after closeafter closeafter close
KO-1.71%-1.02%base-0.41%after closeafter closeafter close

Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.

US CONSUMER 5-YEAR INFLATION EXPECTATIONS 3.4% IN NOV. PRELIMINARY VS. 3.5% IN OCT. FINAL, 3.4% IN SEPT. FINAL TradingView

Source: TradingView

Ishares Tr (TIP) since this story, compared with the market

CompanyWhenMoveStatus
Amazon Com (AMZN)that day+1.13%still updating
Amazon Com (AMZN)three days earlier-3.81%final price
Amazon Com (AMZN)five days earlier-7.79%final price
Costco Wholesale (COST)that day-0.95%still updating
Costco Wholesale (COST)three days earlier-4.40%final price
Costco Wholesale (COST)five days earlier-5.04%final price
Coca Cola (KO)that day-0.41%still updating
Coca Cola (KO)three days earlier-1.02%final price
Coca Cola (KO)five days earlier-1.71%final price
Procter & Gamble (PG)that day-0.89%still updating
Procter & Gamble (PG)three days earlier-3.00%final price
Procter & Gamble (PG)five days earlier-3.29%final price
Ishares Tr (TIP)that day+0.03%still updating
Ishares Tr (TIP)three days earlier-0.14%final price
Ishares Tr (TIP)five days earlier+0.43%final price
Walmart (WMT)that day-2.09%still updating
Walmart (WMT)three days earlier-2.27%final price
Walmart (WMT)five days earlier-3.29%final price
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLP)that day-0.92%still updating
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLP)three days earlier-2.55%final price
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLP)five days earlier-2.05%final price
Spdr Series Trust (XRT)that day-0.31%still updating
Spdr Series Trust (XRT)three days earlier-2.49%final price
Spdr Series Trust (XRT)five days earlier-2.55%final price

Congressional trades in the stocks in this story

Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).

Who gains and who loses around Ishares Tr (TIP)

Companies carried with this story

  • TIP Ishares Tr

    In “US CONSUMER 5-YEAR INFLATION EXPECTATIONS 3.4% IN NOV. PRELIMINARY VS. 3.5% IN OCT. FINAL, 3.4% IN SEPT. FINAL,” Ishares Tr (TIP) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares TIPS Bond ETF: it is a common hedge when prices rise. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story

  • XLP Select Sector Spdr Tr

    In “US CONSUMER 5-YEAR INFLATION EXPECTATIONS 3.4% IN NOV. PRELIMINARY VS. 3.5% IN OCT. FINAL, 3.4% IN SEPT. FINAL,” Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLP) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR: it is a common hedge when prices rise. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story

  • XRT Spdr Series Trust

    Spdr Series Trust (XRT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 6 Nov 2026 story “US CONSUMER 5-YEAR INFLATION EXPECTATIONS 3.4% IN NOV. PRELIMINARY VS. 3.5% IN OCT. FINAL, 3.4% IN SEPT. FINAL.” Reason on file: SPDR S&P Retail ETF: it holds retailers. Linked by “consumer” (retail and consumer goods) in this story

  • WMT Walmart

    Walmart (WMT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 6 Nov 2026 story “US CONSUMER 5-YEAR INFLATION EXPECTATIONS 3.4% IN NOV. PRELIMINARY VS. 3.5% IN OCT. FINAL, 3.4% IN SEPT. FINAL.” Reason on file: Walmart (variety stores): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story

  • AMZN Amazon Com

    Amazon Com (AMZN) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 6 Nov 2026 story “US CONSUMER 5-YEAR INFLATION EXPECTATIONS 3.4% IN NOV. PRELIMINARY VS. 3.5% IN OCT. FINAL, 3.4% IN SEPT. FINAL.” Reason on file: Amazon.com (catalog and mail-order houses): retailers move with shopper spending and import costs. Linked by “consumer” (retail and consumer goods) in this story

  • COST Costco Wholesale

    Costco Wholesale (COST) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 6 Nov 2026 story “US CONSUMER 5-YEAR INFLATION EXPECTATIONS 3.4% IN NOV. PRELIMINARY VS. 3.5% IN OCT. FINAL, 3.4% IN SEPT. FINAL.” Reason on file: Costco Wholesale (variety stores): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story

  • PG Procter & Gamble

    For “US CONSUMER 5-YEAR INFLATION EXPECTATIONS 3.4% IN NOV. PRELIMINARY VS. 3.5% IN OCT. FINAL, 3.4% IN SEPT. FINAL,” Procter & Gamble (PG) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: The Procter & Gamble (soap, detergents, cleang preparations, perfumes, cosmetics): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story

  • KO Coca Cola

    Coca Cola (KO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 6 Nov 2026 story “US CONSUMER 5-YEAR INFLATION EXPECTATIONS 3.4% IN NOV. PRELIMINARY VS. 3.5% IN OCT. FINAL, 3.4% IN SEPT. FINAL.” Reason on file: The Coca-Cola (beverages): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story

Ishares Tr (TIP)

“US CONSUMER 5-YEAR INFLATION EXPECTATIONS 3.4% IN NOV. PRELIMINARY VS. 3.5% IN OCT. FINAL, 3.4% IN SEPT. FINAL” (6 Nov 2026) reaches Ishares Tr (TIP) through this story.

Ishares Tr (TIP) is on the page because iShares TIPS Bond ETF: it is a common hedge when prices rise. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story

Also listed, Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLP): Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR: it is a common hedge when prices rise. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story

Dates in the story, and the Ishares Tr (TIP) price range

TIP traded between 103.77 and 105.61 across 19 sessions. The latest close on file is 105.27. XLP traded between 80.10 and 83.07 across 9 sessions. The latest close on file is 81.02.

How strong the case is around Ishares Tr (TIP)

46 out of 100Price not final

“US CONSUMER 5-YEAR INFLATION EXPECTATIONS 3.4% IN NOV. PRELIMINARY VS. 3.5% IN OCT. FINAL, 3.4% IN SEPT. FINAL” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 8 linked companies. The price is not final yet.