US Fed caught in Hormuz and Red Sea trap - Interest rates and the mathematical formula that sparked panic
Published . Updated .
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, speaker of the Iranian Parliament, demonstrated that the American economy faces a geopolitical trap
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF-1.8% 30d
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
- IEF iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF-0.9% 30d
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
- BWET Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF-3.3% 17d
Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF: it tracks shipping freight. Linked by “red sea” (container shipping) in this story.
- JPM JPMorgan Chase-4.3% 30d
JPMorgan Chase (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
- BAC Bank of America-13.7% 30d
Bank of America (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
- DHI D.R. Horton+4.7% 30d
D.R. Horton (operative builders): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
- SCHW The Charles Schwab
The Charles Schwab (security brokers, dealers and flotation companies): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
- ZIM ZIM Integrated Shipping Services+1.3% 30d
ZIM Integrated Shipping Services (deep sea foreign transportation of freight): shipping lines' rates jump when routes or ports are disrupted. Linked by “red sea” (container shipping) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLTNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| IEFNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| BWETNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| JPMNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| BACNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| DHINo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| SCHWNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ZIM | +4.03% | +4.49% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
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US Fed caught in Hormuz and Red Sea trap - Interest rates and the mathematical formula that sparked panic Bankingnews
Source: Bankingnews
Ishares Tr (TLT) since this story, compared with the market
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| ZIM Integrated Shipping Services (ZIM) | three days earlier | +4.49% | final price |
| ZIM Integrated Shipping Services (ZIM) | five days earlier | +4.03% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Sen. John Boozman bought Ishares Tr (IEF) (jointly held), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 9 Sep 2026. That is 52 days before publication. Filed 21 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse sold Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) (held by a spouse), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 4 Sep 2026. That is 57 days before publication. Filed 1 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse sold Jpmorgan Chase (JPM), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 4 Sep 2026. That is 57 days before publication. Filed 1 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) (held by a spouse), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 27 Aug 2026. That is 65 days before publication. Filed 4 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna sold Bank Of America (BAC) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 9 Sep 2026. That is 52 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Laurel Lee sold Bank Of America (BAC) (held by a spouse), worth $50,001 - $100,000 on 24 Aug 2026. That is 68 days before publication. Filed 16 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Horton D R (DHI), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 17 Aug 2026. That is 75 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Strait of Hormuz, seven days against thirty
Geopolitics Alpha has 166 stories about Strait of Hormuz from the past 7 days and 426 stories from the past 30. That is faster than its usual pace over the past month. “US Fed caught in Hormuz and Red Sea trap - Interest rates and the mathematical formula that sparked panic” is tagged to Strait of Hormuz.
Who gains and who loses around Ishares Tr (TLT)
Companies carried with this story
- TLT Ishares Tr
For “US Fed caught in Hormuz and Red Sea trap - Interest rates and the mathematical formula that sparked panic,” Ishares Tr (TLT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
- IEF Ishares Tr
Ishares Tr (IEF) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 31 Oct 2026 story “US Fed caught in Hormuz and Red Sea trap - Interest rates and the mathematical formula that sparked panic.” Reason on file: iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
- BWET Amplify Commodity Trust
In “US Fed caught in Hormuz and Red Sea trap - Interest rates and the mathematical formula that sparked panic,” Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF: it tracks shipping freight. Linked by “red sea” (container shipping) in this story
- JPM Jpmorgan Chase
In “US Fed caught in Hormuz and Red Sea trap - Interest rates and the mathematical formula that sparked panic,” Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: JPMorgan Chase (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
- BAC Bank Of America
Bank Of America (BAC) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 31 Oct 2026 story “US Fed caught in Hormuz and Red Sea trap - Interest rates and the mathematical formula that sparked panic.” Reason on file: Bank of America (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
- DHI Horton D R
For “US Fed caught in Hormuz and Red Sea trap - Interest rates and the mathematical formula that sparked panic,” Horton D R (DHI) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: D.R. Horton (operative builders): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
- SCHW Schwab Charles
In “US Fed caught in Hormuz and Red Sea trap - Interest rates and the mathematical formula that sparked panic,” Schwab Charles (SCHW) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: The Charles Schwab (security brokers, dealers and flotation companies): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
- ZIM ZIM Integrated Shipping Services
In “US Fed caught in Hormuz and Red Sea trap - Interest rates and the mathematical formula that sparked panic,” ZIM Integrated Shipping Services (ZIM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: ZIM Integrated Shipping Services (deep sea foreign transportation of freight): shipping lines' rates jump when routes or ports are disrupted. Linked by “red sea” (container shipping) in this story
What Strait of Hormuz means for Ishares Tr (TLT)
The 31 Oct 2026 story “US Fed caught in Hormuz and Red Sea trap - Interest rates and the mathematical formula that sparked panic” names Ishares Tr (TLT) because of Strait of Hormuz.
The link for Ishares Tr (TLT) is this: iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
Also listed, Ishares Tr (IEF): iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
The price range for Ishares Tr (TLT), and the dates in the story
BWET traded between 788.51 and 1047.07 across 17 sessions. The latest close on file is 907.20. IEF traded between 88.64 and 91.23 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 90.08. TLT traded between 76.44 and 81.94 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 79.46.
A simple score for Ishares Tr (TLT)
46 out of 100
“US Fed caught in Hormuz and Red Sea trap - Interest rates and the mathematical formula that sparked panic” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 8 linked companies.