US midterm shock Gold rallies copper reassesses tariffs as Trump faces gridlock
Published . Updated .
Key takeaways
- Democrats’ sweeping midterm victory lifts gold and silver, prompts a copper tariff rethink and weighs on oil amid hopes for an Iran deal.
- Exposed: XLI, XRT, GLD, COPX, NEM
- Market reaction: XRT +4.4% on the day (still updating); XLI −1.6% on the day (still updating); AEM +7.5% on the day (still updating)
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Democrats’ sweeping midterm victory lifts gold and silver, prompts a copper tariff rethink and weighs on oil amid hopes for an Iran deal.
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- XLI Industrial Select Sector SPDR-0.3% 30d
Industrial Select Sector SPDR: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- XRT SPDR S&P Retail ETF
SPDR S&P Retail ETF: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- GLD SPDR Gold Shares-3.1% 30d
SPDR Gold Shares: it follows gold or gold miners. Linked by “gold” (gold) in this story.
- COPX Global X Copper Miners ETF-13.1% 30d
Global X Copper Miners ETF: it holds copper miners. Linked by “copper” (copper) in this story.
- CAT Caterpillar-23.2% 30d
Caterpillar (construction machinery and equip): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- DE Deere-0.6% 30d
Deere (farm machinery and equipment): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- WMT Walmart+12.9% 30d
Walmart (variety stores): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- NKE Nike+6.7% 30d
Nike (rubber and plastics footwear): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLI | -1.66% | -2.29% | base | -1.56% | after close | after close | after close |
| XRT | -2.30% | -0.06% | base | +4.44% | after close | after close | after close |
| GLD | +3.96% | -0.97% | base | +3.01% | after close | after close | after close |
| COPX | +7.14% | +0.25% | base | +2.87% | after close | after close | after close |
| CAT | +14.53% | -0.17% | base | -4.86% | after close | after close | after close |
| DE | -3.81% | +1.40% | base | +0.12% | after close | after close | after close |
| WMT | -4.79% | -1.04% | base | +2.15% | after close | after close | after close |
| NKE | -3.40% | +0.56% | base | +3.69% | after close | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
US midterm shock Gold rallies copper reassesses tariffs as Trump faces gridlock Saxo
Source: Saxo
Price since this story was published: Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI)
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caterpillar (CAT) | that day | -4.86% | still updating |
| Caterpillar (CAT) | three days earlier | -0.17% | final price |
| Caterpillar (CAT) | five days earlier | +14.53% | final price |
| Global X Fds (COPX) | that day | +2.87% | still updating |
| Global X Fds (COPX) | three days earlier | +0.25% | final price |
| Global X Fds (COPX) | five days earlier | +7.14% | final price |
| Deere (DE) | that day | +0.12% | still updating |
| Deere (DE) | three days earlier | +1.40% | final price |
| Deere (DE) | five days earlier | -3.81% | final price |
| Spdr Gold Trust (GLD) | that day | +3.01% | still updating |
| Spdr Gold Trust (GLD) | three days earlier | -0.97% | final price |
| Spdr Gold Trust (GLD) | five days earlier | +3.96% | final price |
| NKE | that day | +3.69% | still updating |
| NKE | three days earlier | +0.56% | final price |
| NKE | five days earlier | -3.40% | final price |
| WMT | that day | +2.15% | still updating |
| WMT | three days earlier | -1.04% | final price |
| WMT | five days earlier | -4.79% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) | that day | -1.56% | still updating |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) | three days earlier | -2.29% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) | five days earlier | -1.66% | final price |
| Spdr Series Trust (XRT) | that day | +4.44% | still updating |
| Spdr Series Trust (XRT) | three days earlier | -0.06% | final price |
| Spdr Series Trust (XRT) | five days earlier | -2.30% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Lisa McClain bought Caterpillar (CAT) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 28 Sep 2026. That is 37 days before publication. Filed 12 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Walmart (WMT) (held by a spouse), worth $50,001 - $100,000 on 2 Oct 2026. That is 33 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Jonathan Jackson sold Walmart (WMT) (jointly held), worth $50,001 - $100,000 on 28 Sep 2026. That is 37 days before publication. Filed 19 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Walmart (WMT) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 25 Sep 2026. That is 40 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Nike (NKE), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 28 Aug 2026. That is 68 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Gilbert Cisneros sold Nike (NKE), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 27 Aug 2026. That is 69 days before publication. Filed 10 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, sold Nike (NKE), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 21 Aug 2026. That is 75 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Newmont (NEM), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 24 Aug 2026. That is 72 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Who gains and who loses around Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI)
Companies tied to this story
- XLI Select Sector Spdr Tr
In “US midterm shock Gold rallies copper reassesses tariffs as Trump faces gridlock,” Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Industrial Select Sector SPDR: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
- XRT Spdr Series Trust
Spdr Series Trust (XRT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 4 Nov 2026 story “US midterm shock Gold rallies copper reassesses tariffs as Trump faces gridlock.” Reason on file: SPDR S&P Retail ETF: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
- GLD Spdr Gold Trust
For “US midterm shock Gold rallies copper reassesses tariffs as Trump faces gridlock,” Spdr Gold Trust (GLD) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: SPDR Gold Shares: it follows gold or gold miners. Linked by “gold” (gold) in this story
- COPX Global X Fds
Global X Fds (COPX) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 4 Nov 2026 story “US midterm shock Gold rallies copper reassesses tariffs as Trump faces gridlock.” Reason on file: Global X Copper Miners ETF: it holds copper miners. Linked by “copper” (copper) in this story
- NEM Newmont
In “US midterm shock Gold rallies copper reassesses tariffs as Trump faces gridlock,” Newmont (NEM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Newmont (gold and silver ores): gold miners' profits move with the gold price. Linked by “gold” (gold) in this story
- CAT Caterpillar
For “US midterm shock Gold rallies copper reassesses tariffs as Trump faces gridlock,” Caterpillar (CAT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Caterpillar (construction machinery and equip): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
- AEM Agnico Eagle Mines
For “US midterm shock Gold rallies copper reassesses tariffs as Trump faces gridlock,” Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Agnico Eagle Mines (gold and silver ores): gold miners' profits move with the gold price. Linked by “gold” (gold) in this story
- DE Deere
In “US midterm shock Gold rallies copper reassesses tariffs as Trump faces gridlock,” Deere (DE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Deere (farm machinery and equipment): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI)
The 4 Nov 2026 story “US midterm shock Gold rallies copper reassesses tariffs as Trump faces gridlock” names Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) because of this story.
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) is on the page because Industrial Select Sector SPDR: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
A second company, Spdr Series Trust (XRT), is listed for a different reason: SPDR S&P Retail ETF: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
The price range for Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI), and the dates in the story
GLD traded between 373.41 and 400.78 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 379.67. XLI traded between 163.00 and 172.33 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 169.73.
How strong the case is around Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI)
46 out of 100Price not final
“US midterm shock Gold rallies copper reassesses tariffs as Trump faces gridlock” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 8 linked companies. The price is not final yet.