US midterms: What Trump's defeat means for Europe and global markets
Published . Updated .
Key takeaways
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Democrats have won both chambers of the US Congress. For Europe, the big questions are tariffs and Ukraine, where Trump still holds much of his power.
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- XLI Industrial Select Sector SPDR-0.3% 30d
Industrial Select Sector SPDR: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- XRT SPDR S&P Retail ETF
SPDR S&P Retail ETF: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- VGK Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF
Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF holds stocks listed in Europe, which this story is about (“europe”).
- CAT Caterpillar-23.2% 30d
Caterpillar (construction machinery and equip): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- DE Deere-0.6% 30d
Deere (farm machinery and equipment): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- WMT Walmart+12.9% 30d
Walmart (variety stores): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- NKE Nike+6.7% 30d
Nike (rubber and plastics footwear): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLI | -1.66% | -2.29% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| XRT | -2.30% | -0.06% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| VGK | -0.30% | -0.05% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| CAT | +14.53% | -0.17% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| DE | -3.81% | +1.40% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| WMT | -4.79% | -1.04% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| NKE | -3.40% | +0.56% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
US midterms: What Trump's defeat means for Europe and global markets Euronews.com
Source: euronews.com
The price since 4 Nov 2026: Vanguard Intl Equity Index F (VGK) versus the S&P 500
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAT | three days earlier | -0.17% | final price |
| CAT | five days earlier | +14.53% | final price |
| DE | three days earlier | +1.40% | final price |
| DE | five days earlier | -3.81% | final price |
| NKE | three days earlier | +0.56% | final price |
| NKE | five days earlier | -3.40% | final price |
| Vanguard Intl Equity Index F (VGK) | three days earlier | -0.05% | final price |
| Vanguard Intl Equity Index F (VGK) | five days earlier | -0.30% | final price |
| WMT | three days earlier | -1.04% | final price |
| WMT | five days earlier | -4.79% | final price |
| XLI | three days earlier | -2.29% | final price |
| XLI | five days earlier | -1.66% | final price |
| XRT | three days earlier | -0.06% | final price |
| XRT | five days earlier | -2.30% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Lisa McClain bought Caterpillar (CAT) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 28 Sep 2026. That is 37 days before publication. Filed 12 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Walmart (WMT) (held by a spouse), worth $50,001 - $100,000 on 2 Oct 2026. That is 33 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Jonathan Jackson sold Walmart (WMT) (jointly held), worth $50,001 - $100,000 on 28 Sep 2026. That is 37 days before publication. Filed 19 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Walmart (WMT) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 25 Sep 2026. That is 40 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Nike (NKE), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 28 Aug 2026. That is 68 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Gilbert Cisneros sold Nike (NKE), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 27 Aug 2026. That is 69 days before publication. Filed 10 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, sold Nike (NKE), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 21 Aug 2026. That is 75 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold Asml Holding (ASML) (jointly held), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 23 Oct 2026. That is 12 days before publication. Filed 28 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul bought Asml Holding (ASML) (held by a spouse), worth $50,001 - $100,000 on 7 Aug 2026. That is 89 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold Novartis Ag (NVS), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 27 Aug 2026. That is 69 days before publication. Filed 25 Sep 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Who gains and who loses around Vanguard Intl Equity Index F (VGK)
Companies tied to this story
- VGK Vanguard Intl Equity Index F
Vanguard Intl Equity Index F (VGK) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 4 Nov 2026 story “US midterms: What Trump's defeat means for Europe and global markets.” Reason on file: Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF holds stocks listed in Europe, which this story is about (“europe”)
- ASML Asml Holding
For “US midterms: What Trump's defeat means for Europe and global markets,” Asml Holding (ASML) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: ASML Holding N.V (special industry machinery) is one of the largest Europe-based companies traded in the US, so news about Europe (“europe”) reaches its shares
- HSBC Hsbc Holdings
In “US midterms: What Trump's defeat means for Europe and global markets,” Hsbc Holdings (HSBC) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: HSBC Holdings (savings institution, federally chartered) is one of the largest Europe-based companies traded in the US, so news about Europe (“europe”) reaches its shares
- SHEL Shell
Shell (SHEL) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 4 Nov 2026 story “US midterms: What Trump's defeat means for Europe and global markets.” Reason on file: Shell (crude petroleum and natural gas) is one of the largest Europe-based companies traded in the US, so news about Europe (“europe”) reaches its shares
- NVS Novartis Ag
Novartis Ag (NVS) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 4 Nov 2026 story “US midterms: What Trump's defeat means for Europe and global markets.” Reason on file: Novartis AG (pharmaceutical preparations) is one of the largest Europe-based companies traded in the US, so news about Europe (“europe”) reaches its shares
Vanguard Intl Equity Index F (VGK)
The 4 Nov 2026 story “US midterms: What Trump's defeat means for Europe and global markets” names Vanguard Intl Equity Index F (VGK) because of this story.
Vanguard Intl Equity Index F (VGK) is on the page because Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF holds stocks listed in Europe, which this story is about (“europe”)
Asml Holding (ASML) is here too. Its reason reads: ASML Holding N.V (special industry machinery) is one of the largest Europe-based companies traded in the US, so news about Europe (“europe”) reaches its shares
Dates and price levels for Vanguard Intl Equity Index F (VGK)
ASML traded between 1583.71 and 1868.68 across 13 sessions. The latest close on file is 1590.17. HSBC traded between 91.56 and 101.84 across 13 sessions. The latest close on file is 94.32.
A simple score for Vanguard Intl Equity Index F (VGK)
40 out of 100
“US midterms: What Trump's defeat means for Europe and global markets” scores 40 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 5 linked companies.