US NY FED STAFF NOWCAST SEES US Q4 GDP GROWTH RATE AT 2.9%, UP FROM 2.8% PREVIOUS ESTIMATE, AFTER Q3 GDP REPORT
Published . Updated .
Select market data provided by ICE Data Services . Select reference data provided by FactSet. Copyright © 2026 FactSet Research Systems Inc. Copyright © 2026, American Bankers Association. CUSIP Database provided by FactSet Research Systems Inc. All rights reserved. SEC filings
Directly affected
- FDS Factset Research Systems
Named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF-1.8% 30d
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
- IEF iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF-0.9% 30d
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
- JPM JPMorgan Chase-1.7% 30d
JPMorgan Chase (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
- BAC Bank of America-11.4% 30d
Bank of America (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
- DHI D.R. Horton+5.1% 30d
D.R. Horton (operative builders): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
- SCHW The Charles Schwab
The Charles Schwab (security brokers, dealers and flotation companies): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDSNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| TLT | -0.18% | +0.20% | base | +0.21% | after close | after close | after close |
| IEF | -0.21% | -0.16% | base | +0.49% | after close | after close | after close |
| JPM | -3.51% | -2.27% | base | -2.37% | after close | after close | after close |
| BAC | -1.15% | -0.92% | base | -2.47% | after close | after close | after close |
| DHINo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| SCHWNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
Market Call
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US NY FED STAFF NOWCAST SEES US Q4 GDP GROWTH RATE AT 2.9%, UP FROM 2.8% PREVIOUS ESTIMATE, AFTER Q3 GDP REPORT TradingView
Source: TradingView
How far Ishares Tr (TLT) has moved since 30 Oct 2026
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bank Of America (BAC) | that day | -2.47% | still updating |
| Bank Of America (BAC) | three days earlier | -0.92% | final price |
| Bank Of America (BAC) | five days earlier | -1.15% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (IEF) | that day | +0.49% | still updating |
| Ishares Tr (IEF) | three days earlier | -0.16% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (IEF) | five days earlier | -0.21% | final price |
| Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) | that day | -2.37% | still updating |
| Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) | three days earlier | -2.27% | final price |
| Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) | five days earlier | -3.51% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (TLT) | that day | +0.21% | still updating |
| Ishares Tr (TLT) | three days earlier | +0.20% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (TLT) | five days earlier | -0.18% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Rohit Khanna sold Factset Research Systems (FDS) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 19 Aug 2026. That is 72 days before publication. Filed 4 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna sold Factset Research Systems (FDS) (held by a dependent child), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 19 Aug 2026. That is 72 days before publication. Filed 4 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Sen. John Boozman bought Ishares Tr (IEF) (jointly held), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 9 Sep 2026. That is 51 days before publication. Filed 21 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse sold Jpmorgan Chase (JPM), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 4 Sep 2026. That is 56 days before publication. Filed 1 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse sold Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) (held by a spouse), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 4 Sep 2026. That is 56 days before publication. Filed 1 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) (held by a spouse), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 27 Aug 2026. That is 64 days before publication. Filed 4 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna sold Bank Of America (BAC) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 9 Sep 2026. That is 51 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Laurel Lee sold Bank Of America (BAC) (held by a spouse), worth $50,001 - $100,000 on 24 Aug 2026. That is 67 days before publication. Filed 16 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Horton D R (DHI), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 17 Aug 2026. That is 74 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Who gains and who loses around Ishares Tr (TLT)
Companies tied to this story
- TLT Ishares Tr
For “US NY FED STAFF NOWCAST SEES US Q4 GDP GROWTH RATE AT 2.9%, UP FROM 2.8% PREVIOUS ESTIMATE, AFTER Q3 GDP REPORT,” Ishares Tr (TLT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
- IEF Ishares Tr
In “US NY FED STAFF NOWCAST SEES US Q4 GDP GROWTH RATE AT 2.9%, UP FROM 2.8% PREVIOUS ESTIMATE, AFTER Q3 GDP REPORT,” Ishares Tr (IEF) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
- JPM Jpmorgan Chase
Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 30 Oct 2026 story “US NY FED STAFF NOWCAST SEES US Q4 GDP GROWTH RATE AT 2.9%, UP FROM 2.8% PREVIOUS ESTIMATE, AFTER Q3 GDP REPORT.” Reason on file: JPMorgan Chase (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
- BAC Bank Of America
For “US NY FED STAFF NOWCAST SEES US Q4 GDP GROWTH RATE AT 2.9%, UP FROM 2.8% PREVIOUS ESTIMATE, AFTER Q3 GDP REPORT,” Bank Of America (BAC) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Bank of America (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
- DHI Horton D R
Horton D R (DHI) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 30 Oct 2026 story “US NY FED STAFF NOWCAST SEES US Q4 GDP GROWTH RATE AT 2.9%, UP FROM 2.8% PREVIOUS ESTIMATE, AFTER Q3 GDP REPORT.” Reason on file: D.R. Horton (operative builders): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
- SCHW Schwab Charles
In “US NY FED STAFF NOWCAST SEES US Q4 GDP GROWTH RATE AT 2.9%, UP FROM 2.8% PREVIOUS ESTIMATE, AFTER Q3 GDP REPORT,” Schwab Charles (SCHW) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: The Charles Schwab (security brokers, dealers and flotation companies): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
Ishares Tr (TLT)
“US NY FED STAFF NOWCAST SEES US Q4 GDP GROWTH RATE AT 2.9%, UP FROM 2.8% PREVIOUS ESTIMATE, AFTER Q3 GDP REPORT” (30 Oct 2026) reaches Ishares Tr (TLT) through this story.
Ishares Tr (TLT) is on the page because iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
A second company, Ishares Tr (IEF), is listed for a different reason: iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
Price levels for Ishares Tr (TLT)
IEF traded between 88.64 and 91.23 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 90.08. JPM traded between 325.12 and 345.73 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 343.55. TLT traded between 76.44 and 81.94 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 79.46.
A simple score for Ishares Tr (TLT)
46 out of 100Price not final
“US NY FED STAFF NOWCAST SEES US Q4 GDP GROWTH RATE AT 2.9%, UP FROM 2.8% PREVIOUS ESTIMATE, AFTER Q3 GDP REPORT” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 6 linked companies. The price is not final yet.