Waller Threatens A Half-Point Hike While Oil Falls And Productivity Surges Beneath His Inflation Case
Published . Updated .
Key takeaways
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Fed Governor Chris Waller sees the AI buildout as a source of inflation. His boss, Kevin Warsh sees it as a productivity driver, an inflation cure. Read more here...
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- TIP iShares TIPS Bond ETF+0.4% 19d
iShares TIPS Bond ETF: it is a common hedge when prices rise. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story.
- XLP Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR-1.7% 9d
Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR: it is a common hedge when prices rise. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story.
- USO United States Oil Fund-1.1% 30d
United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF-1.2% 19d
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings-2.7% 17d
ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- CVX Chevron+3.3% 30d
Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- WMT Walmart+20.2% 30d
Walmart (variety stores): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story.
- COST Costco Wholesale+17.1% 30d
Costco Wholesale (variety stores): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TIP | +0.74% | +0.94% | base | -0.05% | after close | after close | after close |
| XLP | +1.01% | -1.04% | base | -0.67% | after close | after close | after close |
| USO | +2.78% | +4.95% | base | +2.37% | after close | after close | after close |
| TLT | +1.08% | +1.27% | base | -0.48% | after close | after close | after close |
| XOM | +3.07% | +0.89% | base | +1.25% | after close | after close | after close |
| CVX | +2.73% | +0.67% | base | +0.78% | after close | after close | after close |
| WMT | +2.97% | -0.02% | base | -1.30% | after close | after close | after close |
| COST | -1.85% | -1.20% | base | +1.05% | after close | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
Waller Threatens A Half-Point Hike While Oil Falls And Productivity Surges Beneath His Inflation Case Seeking Alpha
Source: Seeking Alpha
United States Oil Fund (USO) compared with energy stocks (XLE) since 11 Nov 2026
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Costco Wholesale (COST) | that day | +1.05% | still updating |
| Costco Wholesale (COST) | three days earlier | -1.20% | final price |
| Costco Wholesale (COST) | five days earlier | -1.85% | final price |
| Chevron (CVX) | that day | +0.78% | still updating |
| Chevron (CVX) | three days earlier | +0.67% | final price |
| Chevron (CVX) | five days earlier | +2.73% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (TIP) | that day | -0.05% | still updating |
| Ishares Tr (TIP) | three days earlier | +0.94% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (TIP) | five days earlier | +0.74% | final price |
| TLT | that day | -0.48% | still updating |
| TLT | three days earlier | +1.27% | final price |
| TLT | five days earlier | +1.08% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | that day | +2.37% | still updating |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | three days earlier | +4.95% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | five days earlier | +2.78% | final price |
| Walmart (WMT) | that day | -1.30% | still updating |
| Walmart (WMT) | three days earlier | -0.02% | final price |
| Walmart (WMT) | five days earlier | +2.97% | final price |
| XLP | that day | -0.67% | still updating |
| XLP | three days earlier | -1.04% | final price |
| XLP | five days earlier | +1.01% | final price |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | that day | +1.25% | still updating |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | three days earlier | +0.89% | final price |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | five days earlier | +3.07% | final price |
Congressional trades in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 28 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) (jointly held), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 31 Aug 2026. That is 72 days before publication. Filed 25 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Chevron (CVX), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 28 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold Chevron (CVX) (jointly held), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 23 Sep 2026. That is 49 days before publication. Filed 13 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar bought Chevron (CVX), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 2 Sep 2026. That is 70 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Walmart (WMT) (held by a dependent child), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 13 Oct 2026. That is 29 days before publication. Filed 5 Nov 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna sold Walmart (WMT) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 7 Oct 2026. That is 35 days before publication. Filed 5 Nov 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Walmart (WMT) (held by a spouse), worth $50,001 - $100,000 on 2 Oct 2026. That is 40 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Costco Wholesale (COST), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 13 Oct 2026. That is 29 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Costco Wholesale (COST) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 12 Oct 2026. That is 30 days before publication. Filed 5 Nov 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Costco Wholesale (COST) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 7 Oct 2026. That is 35 days before publication. Filed 5 Nov 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 26 Aug 2026. That is 77 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
United States Oil Fund (USO) on one side of this energy story
The side that tends to collect
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings
ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) tends to benefit, medium confidence in the 11 Nov 2026 story “Waller Threatens A Half-Point Hike While Oil Falls And Productivity Surges Beneath His Inflation Case.” Reason on file: ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- CVX Chevron
Chevron (CVX) tends to benefit, medium confidence in the 11 Nov 2026 story “Waller Threatens A Half-Point Hike While Oil Falls And Productivity Surges Beneath His Inflation Case.” Reason on file: Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
No up or down call on file
- USO United States Oil Fund
United States Oil Fund (USO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 11 Nov 2026 story “Waller Threatens A Half-Point Hike While Oil Falls And Productivity Surges Beneath His Inflation Case.” Reason on file: United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- XLE Select Sector Spdr Tr
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 11 Nov 2026 story “Waller Threatens A Half-Point Hike While Oil Falls And Productivity Surges Beneath His Inflation Case.” Reason on file: Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- TIP Ishares Tr
In “Waller Threatens A Half-Point Hike While Oil Falls And Productivity Surges Beneath His Inflation Case,” Ishares Tr (TIP) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares TIPS Bond ETF: it is a common hedge when prices rise. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story
- WMT Walmart
For “Waller Threatens A Half-Point Hike While Oil Falls And Productivity Surges Beneath His Inflation Case,” Walmart (WMT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Walmart (variety stores): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story
How energy news reaches United States Oil Fund (USO)
The 11 Nov 2026 story “Waller Threatens A Half-Point Hike While Oil Falls And Productivity Surges Beneath His Inflation Case” names United States Oil Fund (USO) because of Energy.
What ties United States Oil Fund (USO) to the headline is this: United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
Also listed, Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE): Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
Dates in the story, and the United States Oil Fund (USO) price range
TIP traded between 103.77 and 105.61 across 16 sessions. The latest close on file is 105.27. USO traded between 143.02 and 171.80 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 148.41. XLE traded between 63.05 and 70.15 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 66.70.
How solid the energy case looks
46 out of 100Price not final
“Waller Threatens A Half-Point Hike While Oil Falls And Productivity Surges Beneath His Inflation Case” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 8 linked companies. The price is not final yet.