Watch Fuel Costs, Tariffs Erode Republicans' Edge in Farm Belt
Published . Updated .
This report is about tariffs and trade and oil.
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- XLI Industrial Select Sector SPDR-0.3% 30d
Industrial Select Sector SPDR: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- XRT SPDR S&P Retail ETF
SPDR S&P Retail ETF: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- USO United States Oil Fund+7.3% 30d
United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “fuel costs” (oil) in this story.
- DBA Invesco DB Agriculture Fund-4.6% 30d
Invesco DB Agriculture Fund: it follows farm commodity prices. Linked by “farm” (grains and farm goods) in this story.
- DE Deere-5.5% 30d
Deere (farm machinery and equipment): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- CAT Caterpillar-10.5% 30d
Caterpillar (construction machinery and equip): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- WMT Walmart+11.3% 30d
Walmart (variety stores): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- NKE Nike+2.1% 30d
Nike (rubber and plastics footwear): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLINo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| XRTNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| USO | -2.52% | -0.26% | base | +0.44% | after close | after close | after close |
| DBANo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| DENo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| CATNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| WMTNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| NKE | +3.08% | +1.98% | base | +3.18% | after close | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
Market Call
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Watch Fuel Costs, Tariffs Erode Republicans' Edge in Farm Belt Bloomberg.com
Source: Bloomberg
Price since this story was published: Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI)
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nike (NKE) | that day | +3.18% | still updating |
| Nike (NKE) | three days earlier | +1.98% | final price |
| Nike (NKE) | five days earlier | +3.08% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | that day | +0.44% | still updating |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | three days earlier | -0.26% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | five days earlier | -2.52% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Lisa McClain bought Caterpillar (CAT) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 28 Sep 2026. That is 31 days before publication. Filed 12 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Caterpillar (CAT), worth $50,001 - $100,000 on 31 Jul 2026. That is 90 days before publication. Filed 22 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Jonathan Jackson sold Walmart (WMT) (jointly held), worth $50,001 - $100,000 on 28 Sep 2026. That is 31 days before publication. Filed 19 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Walmart (WMT) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 25 Sep 2026. That is 34 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna sold Walmart (WMT) (held by a dependent child), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 11 Sep 2026. That is 48 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Nike (NKE), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 28 Aug 2026. That is 62 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Gilbert Cisneros sold Nike (NKE), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 27 Aug 2026. That is 63 days before publication. Filed 10 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, sold Nike (NKE), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 21 Aug 2026. That is 69 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Who gains and who loses around Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI)
Companies carried with this story
- XLI Select Sector Spdr Tr
In “Watch Fuel Costs, Tariffs Erode Republicans' Edge in Farm Belt,” Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Industrial Select Sector SPDR: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
- XRT Spdr Series Trust
In “Watch Fuel Costs, Tariffs Erode Republicans' Edge in Farm Belt,” Spdr Series Trust (XRT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: SPDR S&P Retail ETF: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
- USO United States Oil Fund
For “Watch Fuel Costs, Tariffs Erode Republicans' Edge in Farm Belt,” United States Oil Fund (USO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “fuel costs” (oil) in this story
- DBA Invesco Db Agriculture Fund
For “Watch Fuel Costs, Tariffs Erode Republicans' Edge in Farm Belt,” Invesco Db Agriculture Fund (DBA) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Invesco DB Agriculture Fund: it follows farm commodity prices. Linked by “farm” (grains and farm goods) in this story
- DE Deere
Deere (DE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 29 Oct 2026 story “Watch Fuel Costs, Tariffs Erode Republicans' Edge in Farm Belt.” Reason on file: Deere (farm machinery and equipment): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
- CAT Caterpillar
For “Watch Fuel Costs, Tariffs Erode Republicans' Edge in Farm Belt,” Caterpillar (CAT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Caterpillar (construction machinery and equip): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
- WMT Walmart
For “Watch Fuel Costs, Tariffs Erode Republicans' Edge in Farm Belt,” Walmart (WMT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Walmart (variety stores): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
- NKE Nike
Nike (NKE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 29 Oct 2026 story “Watch Fuel Costs, Tariffs Erode Republicans' Edge in Farm Belt.” Reason on file: Nike (rubber and plastics footwear): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI)
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) is the company in “Watch Fuel Costs, Tariffs Erode Republicans' Edge in Farm Belt,” the 29 Oct 2026 this story story.
The link for Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) is this: Industrial Select Sector SPDR: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
Spdr Series Trust (XRT) is here too. Its reason reads: SPDR S&P Retail ETF: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
Dates in the story, and the Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) price range
USO traded between 141.82 and 169.96 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 166.69. XLI traded between 163.00 and 172.33 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 168.51. XRT traded between 83.12 and 85.33 across 1 sessions. The latest close on file is 83.23.
How strong the case is around Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI)
46 out of 100Price not final
“Watch Fuel Costs, Tariffs Erode Republicans' Edge in Farm Belt” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 8 linked companies. The price is not final yet.