What Did the German Term Spread Predict for 2024?
Published . Updated .
Market Call
Think this story will push the stock up or down over the next three trading days? Make a free call and see what other readers think. Points are play money with no cash value.
Get these market calls by email
The week's biggest market-moving stories, Congress trades and Trump posts, with the tickers they touch. Free, one email a week.
Free. We only use your email to send the digest, never sell or share it, and every email has a one-click unsubscribe link. See our privacy policy.
The 10yr-3mo German spread, hitherto a pretty good predictor, inverted at 2022M12. Hitherto a pretty good predictor of German recessions (as labelled by ECRI), the implied probability was 70%, using a plain vanilla spread regression.
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- EWG iShares MSCI Germany ETF
iShares MSCI Germany ETF holds stocks listed in Germany, which this story is about (“german”).
- SAP Sap Se
Sap Se (prepackaged software) is one of the largest Germany-based companies traded in the US, so news about Germany (“german”) reaches its shares.
- BNTX BioNTech SE
BioNTech SE (biological products, (no diagnostic substances)) is one of the largest Germany-based companies traded in the US, so news about Germany (“german”) reaches its shares.
- FMS Fresenius Medical Care AG
Fresenius Medical Care AG (misc health and allied services) is one of the largest Germany-based companies traded in the US, so news about Germany (“german”) reaches its shares.
- TRVG trivago N.V
trivago N.V (computer processing and data preparation) is one of the largest Germany-based companies traded in the US, so news about Germany (“german”) reaches its shares.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EWG | +0.27% | +0.24% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| SAP | +1.07% | -0.29% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| BNTX | +2.25% | +2.42% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| FMS | +4.13% | +0.79% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| TRVG | -9.79% | -9.79% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
What Did the German Term Spread Predict for 2024? Econbrowser
Source: Econbrowser
This story
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| BNTX | three days earlier | +2.42% | final price |
| BNTX | five days earlier | +2.25% | final price |
| EWG | three days earlier | +0.24% | final price |
| EWG | five days earlier | +0.27% | final price |
| FMS | three days earlier | +0.79% | final price |
| FMS | five days earlier | +4.13% | final price |
| SAP | three days earlier | -0.29% | final price |
| SAP | five days earlier | +1.07% | final price |
| TRVG | three days earlier | -9.79% | final price |
| TRVG | five days earlier | -9.79% | final price |
This story
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Sap Se (SAP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 31 Aug 2026. That is 75 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Sap Se (SAP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 21 Aug 2026. That is 85 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Sap Se (SAP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 19 Aug 2026. That is 87 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
How solid “What Did the German Term Spread Predict for 2024?” looks
12 out of 100
“What Did the German Term Spread Predict for 2024?” scores 12 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources.