What has driven the global rise in long-term interest rates?
Published . Updated .
Key takeaways
- So far this year, sovereign yields have risen across the board in the main developed economies, with a particularly sharp increase at longer maturities.
- Exposed: TLT, IEF, JPM, BAC, DHI
- Market reaction: TLT −0.5% on the day (still updating); IEF −0.3% on the day (still updating); DHI −1.9% on the day (still updating)
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So far this year, sovereign yields have risen across the board in the main developed economies, with a particularly sharp increase at longer maturities. Synchronised trends in the US, Europe and Japan point to global forces that go beyond fiscal or institutional factors specific
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF-1.2% 19d
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “interest rates” (US interest rates) in this story.
- IEF iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF-0.1% 19d
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “interest rates” (US interest rates) in this story.
- VGK Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF
Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF holds stocks listed in Europe, which this story is about (“europe”).
- EWJ iShares MSCI Japan ETF+0.3% 15d
iShares MSCI Japan ETF holds stocks listed in Japan, which this story is about (“japan”).
- BWX SPDR Bloomberg International Treasury Bond ETF
SPDR Bloomberg International Treasury Bond ETF holds government bonds outside the US, which react to inflation and interest-rate news like this one in Europe
- EFA iShares MSCI EAFE ETF-0.7% 6d
iShares MSCI EAFE ETF is a broad fund of developed-market stocks that includes Europe
- JPM JPMorgan Chase+0.1% 30d
JPMorgan Chase (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “interest rates” (US interest rates) in this story.
- BAC Bank of America-11.4% 30d
Bank of America (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “interest rates” (US interest rates) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLT | +1.08% | +1.27% | base | -0.48% | after close | after close | after close |
| IEF | +0.67% | +0.89% | base | -0.28% | after close | after close | after close |
| VGK | +0.65% | -2.62% | base | -0.77% | after close | after close | after close |
| EWJ | +3.87% | -2.33% | base | +1.38% | after close | after close | after close |
| BWX | +0.44% | +0.07% | base | -0.63% | after close | after close | after close |
| EFA | +1.31% | -2.38% | base | -0.25% | after close | after close | after close |
| JPM | +2.98% | -2.21% | base | -0.11% | after close | after close | after close |
| BAC | +1.83% | -2.53% | base | -0.28% | after close | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
What has driven the global rise in long-term interest rates? CaixaBank Research
Source: CaixaBank Research
The price since 11 Nov 2026: Ishares Tr (TLT) versus the S&P 500
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bank Of America (BAC) | that day | -0.28% | still updating |
| Bank Of America (BAC) | three days earlier | -2.53% | final price |
| Bank Of America (BAC) | five days earlier | +1.83% | final price |
| BWX | that day | -0.63% | still updating |
| BWX | three days earlier | +0.07% | final price |
| BWX | five days earlier | +0.44% | final price |
| EFA | that day | -0.25% | still updating |
| EFA | three days earlier | -2.38% | final price |
| EFA | five days earlier | +1.31% | final price |
| EWJ | that day | +1.38% | still updating |
| EWJ | three days earlier | -2.33% | final price |
| EWJ | five days earlier | +3.87% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (IEF) | that day | -0.28% | still updating |
| Ishares Tr (IEF) | three days earlier | +0.89% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (IEF) | five days earlier | +0.67% | final price |
| Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) | that day | -0.11% | still updating |
| Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) | three days earlier | -2.21% | final price |
| Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) | five days earlier | +2.98% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (TLT) | that day | -0.48% | still updating |
| Ishares Tr (TLT) | three days earlier | +1.27% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (TLT) | five days earlier | +1.08% | final price |
| VGK | that day | -0.77% | still updating |
| VGK | three days earlier | -2.62% | final price |
| VGK | five days earlier | +0.65% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Sen. John Boozman bought Ishares Tr (IEF) (jointly held), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 9 Sep 2026. That is 63 days before publication. Filed 21 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Sen. John Boozman sold EFA (jointly held), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 9 Sep 2026. That is 63 days before publication. Filed 21 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) (held by a dependent child), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 15 Oct 2026. That is 27 days before publication. Filed 5 Nov 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) (held by a spouse), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 8 Oct 2026. That is 34 days before publication. Filed 5 Nov 2026. View the filing.
- Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse sold Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) (held by a spouse), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 4 Sep 2026. That is 68 days before publication. Filed 1 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Bank Of America (BAC) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 20 Oct 2026. That is 22 days before publication. Filed 5 Nov 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna sold Bank Of America (BAC) (held by a dependent child), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 13 Oct 2026. That is 29 days before publication. Filed 5 Nov 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna sold Bank Of America (BAC) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 9 Sep 2026. That is 63 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Horton D R (DHI), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 17 Aug 2026. That is 86 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Who is named in “What has driven the global rise in long-term interest rates?”
Companies carried with this story
- TLT Ishares Tr
In “What has driven the global rise in long-term interest rates?,” Ishares Tr (TLT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “interest rates” (US interest rates) in this story
- IEF Ishares Tr
In “What has driven the global rise in long-term interest rates?,” Ishares Tr (IEF) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “interest rates” (US interest rates) in this story
- JPM Jpmorgan Chase
Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 11 Nov 2026 story “What has driven the global rise in long-term interest rates?.” Reason on file: JPMorgan Chase (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “interest rates” (US interest rates) in this story
- BAC Bank Of America
Bank Of America (BAC) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 11 Nov 2026 story “What has driven the global rise in long-term interest rates?.” Reason on file: Bank of America (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “interest rates” (US interest rates) in this story
- DHI Horton D R
Horton D R (DHI) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 11 Nov 2026 story “What has driven the global rise in long-term interest rates?.” Reason on file: D.R. Horton (operative builders): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “interest rates” (US interest rates) in this story
- SCHW Schwab Charles
For “What has driven the global rise in long-term interest rates?,” Schwab Charles (SCHW) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: The Charles Schwab (security brokers, dealers and flotation companies): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “interest rates” (US interest rates) in this story
How “What has driven the global rise in long-term interest rates?” reaches Ishares Tr (TLT)
On 11 Nov 2026, “What has driven the global rise in long-term interest rates?” is the story that connects Ishares Tr (TLT) to this story.
Ishares Tr (TLT) is on the page because iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “interest rates” (US interest rates) in this story
A second company, Ishares Tr (IEF), is listed for a different reason: iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “interest rates” (US interest rates) in this story
Price levels for Ishares Tr (TLT)
IEF traded between 88.64 and 90.69 across 16 sessions. The latest close on file is 90.08. JPM traded between 325.12 and 345.73 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 338.00. TLT traded between 76.44 and 80.56 across 16 sessions. The latest close on file is 79.46.
What the saved facts support for Ishares Tr (TLT)
46 out of 100Price not final
“What has driven the global rise in long-term interest rates?” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 6 linked companies. The price is not final yet.