What’s happened to the global rules-based order?
Published . Updated .
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Trump’s tariffs bruise trade, but self-interest keeps economic cooperation largely intact.
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- XLI Industrial Select Sector SPDR-0.3% 30d
Industrial Select Sector SPDR: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- XRT SPDR S&P Retail ETF
SPDR S&P Retail ETF: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- CAT Caterpillar-26.6% 30d
Caterpillar (construction machinery and equip): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- DE Deere-1.1% 30d
Deere (farm machinery and equipment): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- WMT Walmart+20.2% 30d
Walmart (variety stores): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- NKE Nike+6.7% 30d
Nike (rubber and plastics footwear): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLI | -1.06% | +0.22% | base | +0.95% | -0.17% | -4.14% | after close |
| XRT | -3.55% | -1.68% | base | -1.91% | +3.51% | +0.40% | after close |
| CAT | +16.30% | +5.44% | base | +1.66% | -3.65% | -9.81% | after close |
| DE | -4.18% | -1.10% | base | -0.24% | +1.17% | -0.43% | after close |
| WMT | -6.59% | -5.06% | base | -2.27% | +1.86% | +0.56% | after close |
| NKE | -4.04% | -1.81% | base | -1.67% | +3.44% | +1.10% | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
What’s happened to the global rules-based order? Lowy Institute
Source: Lowy Institute
This story
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAT | that day | +1.66% | final price |
| CAT | the next day | -3.65% | final price |
| CAT | two days later | -9.81% | final price |
| CAT | three days earlier | +5.44% | final price |
| CAT | five days earlier | +16.30% | final price |
| DE | that day | -0.24% | final price |
| DE | the next day | +1.17% | final price |
| DE | two days later | -0.43% | final price |
| DE | three days earlier | -1.10% | final price |
| DE | five days earlier | -4.18% | final price |
| NKE | that day | -1.67% | final price |
| NKE | the next day | +3.44% | final price |
| NKE | two days later | +1.10% | final price |
| NKE | three days earlier | -1.81% | final price |
| NKE | five days earlier | -4.04% | final price |
| WMT | that day | -2.27% | final price |
| WMT | the next day | +1.86% | final price |
| WMT | two days later | +0.56% | final price |
| WMT | three days earlier | -5.06% | final price |
| WMT | five days earlier | -6.59% | final price |
| XLI | that day | +0.95% | final price |
| XLI | the next day | -0.17% | final price |
| XLI | two days later | -4.14% | final price |
| XLI | three days earlier | +0.22% | final price |
| XLI | five days earlier | -1.06% | final price |
| XRT | that day | -1.91% | final price |
| XRT | the next day | +3.51% | final price |
| XRT | two days later | +0.40% | final price |
| XRT | three days earlier | -1.68% | final price |
| XRT | five days earlier | -3.55% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Lisa McClain bought Caterpillar (CAT) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 28 Sep 2026. That is 36 days before publication. Filed 12 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Walmart (WMT) (held by a spouse), worth $50,001 - $100,000 on 2 Oct 2026. That is 32 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Jonathan Jackson sold Walmart (WMT) (jointly held), worth $50,001 - $100,000 on 28 Sep 2026. That is 36 days before publication. Filed 19 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Walmart (WMT) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 25 Sep 2026. That is 39 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Nike (NKE), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 28 Aug 2026. That is 67 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Gilbert Cisneros sold Nike (NKE), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 27 Aug 2026. That is 68 days before publication. Filed 10 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, sold Nike (NKE), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 21 Aug 2026. That is 74 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
How solid “What’s happened to the global rules-based order?” looks
12 out of 100
“What’s happened to the global rules-based order?” scores 12 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources.