What the China AI Export Controls Draft Actually Says
Published . Updated .
China drew a fence around its most valuable AI technology on October 16, 2026. The Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Science and Technology released a
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- QQQ Invesco QQQ+2.3% 19d
Invesco QQQ: it holds the big tech and AI names. Linked by “ai” (AI and big tech) in this story.
- AIQ Global X Artificial Intelligence & Technology ETF-0.2% 30d
Global X Artificial Intelligence & Technology ETF: it holds the big tech and AI names. Linked by “ai” (AI and big tech) in this story.
- SMH VanEck Semiconductor ETF+1.3% 30d
VanEck Semiconductor ETF: it holds chipmakers. Linked by “export controls” (semiconductors) in this story.
- KWEB KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF-4.6% 30d
KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF: it holds Chinese internet companies. Linked by “china” (Chinese tech) in this story.
- FXI iShares China Large-Cap ETF-5.0% 30d
iShares China Large-Cap ETF holds stocks listed in China, which this story is about (“china”).
- NVDA Nvidia-1.8% 30d
Nvidia (semiconductors and related devices): big tech's AI spending and demand drive its shares. Linked by “ai” (AI and big tech) in this story.
- ASML ASML Holding N.V-5.7% 30d
ASML Holding N.V (special industry machinery): chip demand, export rules and supply drive chipmakers' shares. Linked by “export controls” (semiconductors) in this story.
- TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing+2.2% 30d
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (semiconductors and related devices): chip demand, export rules and supply drive chipmakers' shares. Linked by “export controls” (semiconductors) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QQQNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| AIQNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| SMH | -7.89% | -4.67% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| KWEBNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| FXINo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| NVDA | -1.43% | +0.31% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| ASML | -6.17% | -4.45% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| TSM | -6.22% | -3.47% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
Market Call
Think this story will push the stock up or down over the next three trading days? Make a free call and see what other readers think. Points are play money with no cash value.
What the China AI Export Controls Draft Actually Says shattered.io
Source: shattered.io
The price since 29 Oct 2026: Vaneck Etf Trust (SMH) versus the S&P 500
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asml Holding (ASML) | three days earlier | -4.45% | final price |
| Asml Holding (ASML) | five days earlier | -6.17% | final price |
| Nvidia (NVDA) | three days earlier | +0.31% | final price |
| Nvidia (NVDA) | five days earlier | -1.43% | final price |
| Vaneck Etf Trust (SMH) | three days earlier | -4.67% | final price |
| Vaneck Etf Trust (SMH) | five days earlier | -7.89% | final price |
| Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) | three days earlier | -3.47% | final price |
| Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) | five days earlier | -6.22% | final price |
Congressional trades in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Cleo Fields bought Nvidia (NVDA), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 1 Oct 2026. That is 28 days before publication. Filed 22 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Nvidia (NVDA) (held by a dependent child), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 23 Sep 2026. That is 36 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna sold Nvidia (NVDA) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 4 Sep 2026. That is 55 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul bought Asml Holding (ASML) (held by a spouse), worth $50,001 - $100,000 on 7 Aug 2026. That is 83 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Cleo Fields bought Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 9 Oct 2026. That is 20 days before publication. Filed 22 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Gilbert Cisneros bought Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 22 Sep 2026. That is 37 days before publication. Filed 12 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 25 Aug 2026. That is 65 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Who gains and who loses around Vaneck Etf Trust (SMH)
Companies tied to this story
- SMH Vaneck Etf Trust
For “What the China AI Export Controls Draft Actually Says,” Vaneck Etf Trust (SMH) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: VanEck Semiconductor ETF: it holds chipmakers. Linked by “export controls” (semiconductors) in this story
- SOXX Ishares Tr
Ishares Tr (SOXX) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 29 Oct 2026 story “What the China AI Export Controls Draft Actually Says.” Reason on file: iShares Semiconductor ETF: it holds chipmakers. Linked by “export controls” (semiconductors) in this story
- QQQ Invesco Qqq Trust, Series 1
Invesco Qqq Trust, Series 1 (QQQ) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 29 Oct 2026 story “What the China AI Export Controls Draft Actually Says.” Reason on file: Invesco QQQ: it holds the big tech and AI names. Linked by “ai” (AI and big tech) in this story
- KWEB Kraneshares Csi China Internet Etf
In “What the China AI Export Controls Draft Actually Says,” Kraneshares Csi China Internet Etf (KWEB) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF: it holds Chinese internet companies. Linked by “china” (Chinese tech) in this story
- FXI Ishares China Large-Cap Etf
For “What the China AI Export Controls Draft Actually Says,” Ishares China Large-Cap Etf (FXI) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares China Large-Cap ETF holds stocks listed in China, which this story is about (“china”)
- ASML Asml Holding
In “What the China AI Export Controls Draft Actually Says,” Asml Holding (ASML) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: ASML Holding N.V (special industry machinery): chip demand, export rules and supply drive chipmakers' shares. Linked by “export controls” (semiconductors) in this story
- NVDA Nvidia
For “What the China AI Export Controls Draft Actually Says,” Nvidia (NVDA) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Nvidia (semiconductors and related devices): chip demand, export rules and supply drive chipmakers' shares. Linked by “export controls” (semiconductors) in this story
- TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 29 Oct 2026 story “What the China AI Export Controls Draft Actually Says.” Reason on file: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (semiconductors and related devices): chip demand, export rules and supply drive chipmakers' shares. Linked by “export controls” (semiconductors) in this story
How “What the China AI Export Controls Draft Actually Says” reaches Vaneck Etf Trust (SMH)
Vaneck Etf Trust (SMH) is the company in “What the China AI Export Controls Draft Actually Says,” the 29 Oct 2026 this story story.
For Vaneck Etf Trust (SMH), the reason on file says VanEck Semiconductor ETF: it holds chipmakers. Linked by “export controls” (semiconductors) in this story
A second company, Ishares Tr (SOXX), is listed for a different reason: iShares Semiconductor ETF: it holds chipmakers. Linked by “export controls” (semiconductors) in this story
The price range for Vaneck Etf Trust (SMH), and the dates in the story
QQQ traded between 701.18 and 762.84 across 18 sessions. The latest close on file is 725.59. SMH traded between 520.59 and 639.33 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 568.02. SOXX traded between 472.27 and 596.41 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 521.94.
A simple score for Vaneck Etf Trust (SMH)
46 out of 100
“What the China AI Export Controls Draft Actually Says” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 8 linked companies.