What the Midterm Elections Mean for Stocks, Treasuries and the Dollar
Published . Updated .
This report is about US interest rates and currencies.
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF-1.8% 30d
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “treasuries” (US interest rates) in this story.
- IEF iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF-0.9% 30d
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “treasuries” (US interest rates) in this story.
- UUP Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund+2.2% 30d
Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund: it tracks currencies. Linked by “the dollar” (currencies) in this story.
- JPM JPMorgan Chase-4.3% 30d
JPMorgan Chase (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “treasuries” (US interest rates) in this story.
- BAC Bank of America-11.1% 30d
Bank of America (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “treasuries” (US interest rates) in this story.
- DHI D.R. Horton+4.7% 30d
D.R. Horton (operative builders): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “treasuries” (US interest rates) in this story.
- SCHW The Charles Schwab
The Charles Schwab (security brokers, dealers and flotation companies): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “treasuries” (US interest rates) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLT | -0.20% | -1.03% | base | -0.01% | after close | after close | after close |
| IEF | -0.69% | -0.98% | base | -0.22% | after close | after close | after close |
| UUP | +0.03% | +0.21% | base | -0.12% | after close | after close | after close |
| JPM | -0.92% | +0.67% | base | +1.22% | after close | after close | after close |
| BAC | +1.08% | +1.74% | base | -0.45% | after close | after close | after close |
| DHI | +0.34% | -2.12% | base | +4.21% | after close | after close | after close |
| SCHW | +1.96% | +0.85% | base | +0.83% | after close | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
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What the Midterm Elections Mean for Stocks, Treasuries and the Dollar StoneX
Source: StoneX
Ishares Tr (TLT) since this story, compared with the market
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bank Of America (BAC) | that day | -0.45% | still updating |
| Bank Of America (BAC) | three days earlier | +1.74% | final price |
| Bank Of America (BAC) | five days earlier | +1.08% | final price |
| Horton D R (DHI) | that day | +4.21% | still updating |
| Horton D R (DHI) | three days earlier | -2.12% | final price |
| Horton D R (DHI) | five days earlier | +0.34% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (IEF) | that day | -0.22% | still updating |
| Ishares Tr (IEF) | three days earlier | -0.98% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (IEF) | five days earlier | -0.69% | final price |
| Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) | that day | +1.22% | still updating |
| Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) | three days earlier | +0.67% | final price |
| Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) | five days earlier | -0.92% | final price |
| Schwab Charles (SCHW) | that day | +0.83% | still updating |
| Schwab Charles (SCHW) | three days earlier | +0.85% | final price |
| Schwab Charles (SCHW) | five days earlier | +1.96% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (TLT) | that day | -0.01% | still updating |
| Ishares Tr (TLT) | three days earlier | -1.03% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (TLT) | five days earlier | -0.20% | final price |
| Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) | that day | -0.12% | still updating |
| Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) | three days earlier | +0.21% | final price |
| Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) | five days earlier | +0.03% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Sen. John Boozman bought Ishares Tr (IEF) (jointly held), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 9 Sep 2026. That is 54 days before publication. Filed 21 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse sold Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) (held by a spouse), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 4 Sep 2026. That is 59 days before publication. Filed 1 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse sold Jpmorgan Chase (JPM), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 4 Sep 2026. That is 59 days before publication. Filed 1 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) (held by a spouse), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 27 Aug 2026. That is 67 days before publication. Filed 4 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna sold Bank Of America (BAC) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 9 Sep 2026. That is 54 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Laurel Lee sold Bank Of America (BAC) (held by a spouse), worth $50,001 - $100,000 on 24 Aug 2026. That is 70 days before publication. Filed 16 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Horton D R (DHI), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 17 Aug 2026. That is 77 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Who gains and who loses around Ishares Tr (TLT)
Companies tied to this story
- TLT Ishares Tr
In “What the Midterm Elections Mean for Stocks, Treasuries and the Dollar,” Ishares Tr (TLT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “treasuries” (US interest rates) in this story
- IEF Ishares Tr
In “What the Midterm Elections Mean for Stocks, Treasuries and the Dollar,” Ishares Tr (IEF) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “treasuries” (US interest rates) in this story
- UUP Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund
Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 2 Nov 2026 story “What the Midterm Elections Mean for Stocks, Treasuries and the Dollar.” Reason on file: Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund: it tracks currencies. Linked by “the dollar” (currencies) in this story
- JPM Jpmorgan Chase
Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 2 Nov 2026 story “What the Midterm Elections Mean for Stocks, Treasuries and the Dollar.” Reason on file: JPMorgan Chase (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “treasuries” (US interest rates) in this story
- BAC Bank Of America
In “What the Midterm Elections Mean for Stocks, Treasuries and the Dollar,” Bank Of America (BAC) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Bank of America (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “treasuries” (US interest rates) in this story
- DHI Horton D R
In “What the Midterm Elections Mean for Stocks, Treasuries and the Dollar,” Horton D R (DHI) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: D.R. Horton (operative builders): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “treasuries” (US interest rates) in this story
- SCHW Schwab Charles
Schwab Charles (SCHW) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 2 Nov 2026 story “What the Midterm Elections Mean for Stocks, Treasuries and the Dollar.” Reason on file: The Charles Schwab (security brokers, dealers and flotation companies): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “treasuries” (US interest rates) in this story
Ishares Tr (TLT)
On 2 Nov 2026, “What the Midterm Elections Mean for Stocks, Treasuries and the Dollar” is the story that connects Ishares Tr (TLT) to this story.
For Ishares Tr (TLT), the reason on file says iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “treasuries” (US interest rates) in this story
A second company, Ishares Tr (IEF), is listed for a different reason: iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “treasuries” (US interest rates) in this story
Price levels for Ishares Tr (TLT)
IEF traded between 88.64 and 91.23 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 90.08. TLT traded between 76.44 and 81.94 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 79.46. UUP traded between 28.84 and 29.23 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 29.02.
A simple score for Ishares Tr (TLT)
46 out of 100Price not final
“What the Midterm Elections Mean for Stocks, Treasuries and the Dollar” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 7 linked companies. The price is not final yet.