Why have US chip export controls failed?
Published . Updated .
Key takeaways
- Gradually imposed to contain China’s AI rise, US export controls backfired, instead incentivizing Beijing to pursue more innovative technological solutions across the semiconductor and AI industries.
- Exposed: SMH, SOXX, ASML, NVDA, TSM
- Market reaction: price tracking starts with the next trading session.
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Gradually imposed to contain China’s AI rise, US export controls backfired, instead incentivizing Beijing to pursue more innovative technological solutions across the semiconductor and AI industries. This is a cautionary tale of how underestimating a rival’s financial and human
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- SMH VanEck Semiconductor ETF-15.4% 30d
VanEck Semiconductor ETF: it holds chipmakers. Linked by “chip” (semiconductors) in this story.
- SOXX iShares Semiconductor ETF-19.1% 30d
iShares Semiconductor ETF: it holds chipmakers. Linked by “chip” (semiconductors) in this story.
- QQQ Invesco QQQ-9.8% 30d
Invesco QQQ: it holds the big tech and AI names. Linked by “ai” (AI and big tech) in this story.
- KWEB KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF-6.3% 30d
KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF: it holds Chinese internet companies. Linked by “china” (Chinese tech) in this story.
- FXI iShares China Large-Cap ETF-2.8% 30d
iShares China Large-Cap ETF holds stocks listed in China, which this story is about (“china”).
- TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing-10.6% 30d
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (semiconductors and related devices): chip demand, export rules and supply drive chipmakers' shares. Linked by “chip” (semiconductors) in this story.
- ASML ASML Holding N.V-13.3% 10d
ASML Holding N.V (special industry machinery): chip demand, export rules and supply drive chipmakers' shares. Linked by “chip” (semiconductors) in this story.
- NVDA Nvidia-27.4% 30d
Nvidia (semiconductors and related devices): chip demand, export rules and supply drive chipmakers' shares. Linked by “chip” (semiconductors) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMH | +0.14% | +4.23% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| SOXX | -1.72% | +4.04% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| QQQ | -0.18% | +1.53% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| KWEB | +5.97% | +3.23% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| FXI | +3.46% | +1.27% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| TSM | -2.48% | +3.67% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| ASML | +1.17% | +2.59% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| NVDA | +9.70% | +6.76% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
Why have US chip export controls failed? Defence24.com
Source: Defence24.com
The price since 14 Nov 2026: Vaneck Etf Trust (SMH) versus the S&P 500
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asml Holding (ASML) | three days earlier | +2.59% | final price |
| Asml Holding (ASML) | five days earlier | +1.17% | final price |
| FXI | three days earlier | +1.27% | final price |
| FXI | five days earlier | +3.46% | final price |
| KWEB | three days earlier | +3.23% | final price |
| KWEB | five days earlier | +5.97% | final price |
| Nvidia (NVDA) | three days earlier | +6.76% | final price |
| Nvidia (NVDA) | five days earlier | +9.70% | final price |
| QQQ | three days earlier | +1.53% | final price |
| QQQ | five days earlier | -0.18% | final price |
| Vaneck Etf Trust (SMH) | three days earlier | +4.23% | final price |
| Vaneck Etf Trust (SMH) | five days earlier | +0.14% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (SOXX) | three days earlier | +4.04% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (SOXX) | five days earlier | -1.72% | final price |
| Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) | three days earlier | +3.67% | final price |
| Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) | five days earlier | -2.48% | final price |
Congressional trades in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Cleo Fields bought Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 9 Oct 2026. That is 36 days before publication. Filed 22 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Gilbert Cisneros bought Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 22 Sep 2026. That is 53 days before publication. Filed 12 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 25 Aug 2026. That is 81 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold Asml Holding (ASML) (jointly held), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 23 Oct 2026. That is 22 days before publication. Filed 28 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar bought Nvidia (NVDA), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 23 Oct 2026. That is 22 days before publication. Filed 5 Nov 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Gilbert Cisneros sold Nvidia (NVDA), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 20 Oct 2026. That is 25 days before publication. Filed 10 Nov 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna sold Nvidia (NVDA) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 7 Oct 2026. That is 38 days before publication. Filed 5 Nov 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Broadcom (AVGO) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 13 Oct 2026. That is 32 days before publication. Filed 5 Nov 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna sold Broadcom (AVGO) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 25 Sep 2026. That is 50 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. John J McGuire III sold Broadcom (AVGO) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 24 Sep 2026. That is 51 days before publication. Filed 1 Nov 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Who gains and who loses around Vaneck Etf Trust (SMH)
Companies carried with this story
- SMH Vaneck Etf Trust
Vaneck Etf Trust (SMH) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 14 Nov 2026 story “Why have US chip export controls failed?.” Reason on file: VanEck Semiconductor ETF: it holds chipmakers. Linked by “chip” (semiconductors) in this story
- SOXX Ishares Tr
Ishares Tr (SOXX) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 14 Nov 2026 story “Why have US chip export controls failed?.” Reason on file: iShares Semiconductor ETF: it holds chipmakers. Linked by “chip” (semiconductors) in this story
- ASML Asml Holding
In “Why have US chip export controls failed?,” Asml Holding (ASML) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: ASML Holding N.V (special industry machinery): chip demand, export rules and supply drive chipmakers' shares. Linked by “chip” (semiconductors) in this story
- NVDA Nvidia
In “Why have US chip export controls failed?,” Nvidia (NVDA) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Nvidia (semiconductors and related devices): chip demand, export rules and supply drive chipmakers' shares. Linked by “chip” (semiconductors) in this story
- TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 14 Nov 2026 story “Why have US chip export controls failed?.” Reason on file: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (semiconductors and related devices): chip demand, export rules and supply drive chipmakers' shares. Linked by “chip” (semiconductors) in this story
- AVGO Broadcom
In “Why have US chip export controls failed?,” Broadcom (AVGO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Broadcom (semiconductors and related devices): chip demand, export rules and supply drive chipmakers' shares. Linked by “chip” (semiconductors) in this story
How “Why have US chip export controls failed?” reaches Vaneck Etf Trust (SMH)
Vaneck Etf Trust (SMH) is the company in “Why have US chip export controls failed?,” the 14 Nov 2026 this story story.
The link for Vaneck Etf Trust (SMH) is this: VanEck Semiconductor ETF: it holds chipmakers. Linked by “chip” (semiconductors) in this story
Ishares Tr (SOXX) is here too. Its reason reads: iShares Semiconductor ETF: it holds chipmakers. Linked by “chip” (semiconductors) in this story
Dates in the story, and the Vaneck Etf Trust (SMH) price range
ASML traded between 1583.71 and 1868.68 across 10 sessions. The latest close on file is 1590.17. SMH traded between 506.51 and 639.33 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 508.07. SOXX traded between 452.10 and 596.35 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 453.73.
How solid “Why have US chip export controls failed?” looks
46 out of 100
“Why have US chip export controls failed?” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 6 linked companies.