Will a Federal Reserve Interest Rate Hike Trigger a Recession? Here's What History Says.
Published . Updated .
Covered by 3 outlets: The Globe and Mail, aol.com, The Motley Fool.
Key takeaways
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Detailed price information for Nvidia Corp (NVDA-Q) from The Globe and Mail including charting and trades.
Directly affected
- NVDA Nvidia-8.4% 30d
Named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF-2.8% 30d
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “federal reserve” (US interest rates) in this story.
- IEF iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF-1.2% 30d
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “federal reserve” (US interest rates) in this story.
- SMH VanEck Semiconductor ETF-16.4% 30d
VanEck Semiconductor ETF: it holds chipmakers. Linked by “nvidia” (semiconductors) in this story.
- JPM JPMorgan Chase+0.1% 30d
JPMorgan Chase (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “federal reserve” (US interest rates) in this story.
- BAC Bank of America-11.4% 30d
Bank of America (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “federal reserve” (US interest rates) in this story.
- DHI D.R. Horton+5.6% 30d
D.R. Horton (operative builders): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “federal reserve” (US interest rates) in this story.
- SCHW The Charles Schwab
The Charles Schwab (security brokers, dealers and flotation companies): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “federal reserve” (US interest rates) in this story.
- ASML ASML Holding N.V-9.0% 12d
ASML Holding N.V (special industry machinery): chip demand, export rules and supply drive chipmakers' shares. Linked by “nvidia” (semiconductors) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | +8.30% | +7.21% | base | -4.60% | after close | after close | after close |
| TLT | -0.24% | -0.19% | base | +0.04% | after close | after close | after close |
| IEF | -0.38% | -0.22% | base | -0.05% | after close | after close | after close |
| SMH | +9.57% | +8.79% | base | +5.09% | after close | after close | after close |
| JPM | +1.86% | +5.31% | base | +2.46% | after close | after close | after close |
| BAC | +0.30% | +4.48% | base | +2.87% | after close | after close | after close |
| DHI | +0.44% | +3.14% | base | +2.20% | after close | after close | after close |
| SCHW | -3.01% | +2.05% | base | +1.34% | after close | after close | after close |
| ASML | +7.09% | +5.03% | base | +6.21% | after close | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
Will a Federal Reserve Interest Rate Hike Trigger a Recession? Here's What History Says. The Globe and Mail
Source: The Globe and Mail
Ishares Tr (TLT) since this story, compared with the market
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| ASML | that day | +6.21% | final price |
| ASML | three days earlier | +5.03% | final price |
| ASML | five days earlier | +7.09% | final price |
| Bank Of America (BAC) | that day | +2.87% | final price |
| Bank Of America (BAC) | three days earlier | +4.48% | final price |
| Bank Of America (BAC) | five days earlier | +0.30% | final price |
| Horton D R (DHI) | that day | +2.20% | final price |
| Horton D R (DHI) | three days earlier | +3.14% | final price |
| Horton D R (DHI) | five days earlier | +0.44% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (IEF) | that day | -0.05% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (IEF) | three days earlier | -0.22% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (IEF) | five days earlier | -0.38% | final price |
| Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) | that day | +2.46% | final price |
| Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) | three days earlier | +5.31% | final price |
| Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) | five days earlier | +1.86% | final price |
| NVDA | that day | -4.60% | final price |
| NVDA | three days earlier | +7.21% | final price |
| NVDA | five days earlier | +8.30% | final price |
| Schwab Charles (SCHW) | that day | +1.34% | final price |
| Schwab Charles (SCHW) | three days earlier | +2.05% | final price |
| Schwab Charles (SCHW) | five days earlier | -3.01% | final price |
| SMH | that day | +5.09% | final price |
| SMH | three days earlier | +8.79% | final price |
| SMH | five days earlier | +9.57% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (TLT) | that day | +0.04% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (TLT) | three days earlier | -0.19% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (TLT) | five days earlier | -0.24% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar bought Nvidia (NVDA), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 23 Oct 2026. That is 17 days before publication. Filed 5 Nov 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Nvidia (NVDA) (held by a spouse), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 2 Oct 2026. That is 38 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Cleo Fields bought Nvidia (NVDA), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 1 Oct 2026. That is 39 days before publication. Filed 22 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Sen. John Boozman bought Ishares Tr (IEF) (jointly held), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 9 Sep 2026. That is 61 days before publication. Filed 21 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse sold Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) (held by a spouse), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 4 Sep 2026. That is 66 days before publication. Filed 1 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse sold Jpmorgan Chase (JPM), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 4 Sep 2026. That is 66 days before publication. Filed 1 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) (held by a spouse), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 27 Aug 2026. That is 74 days before publication. Filed 4 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna sold Bank Of America (BAC) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 9 Sep 2026. That is 61 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Laurel Lee sold Bank Of America (BAC) (held by a spouse), worth $50,001 - $100,000 on 24 Aug 2026. That is 77 days before publication. Filed 16 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Horton D R (DHI), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 17 Aug 2026. That is 84 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold Asml Holding (ASML) (jointly held), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 23 Oct 2026. That is 17 days before publication. Filed 28 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Who gains and who loses around Ishares Tr (TLT)
Companies tied to this story
- TLT Ishares Tr
For “Will a Federal Reserve Interest Rate Hike Trigger a Recession? Here's What History Says.,” Ishares Tr (TLT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “federal reserve” (US interest rates) in this story
- IEF Ishares Tr
For “Will a Federal Reserve Interest Rate Hike Trigger a Recession? Here's What History Says.,” Ishares Tr (IEF) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “federal reserve” (US interest rates) in this story
- JPM Jpmorgan Chase
Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 9 Nov 2026 story “Will a Federal Reserve Interest Rate Hike Trigger a Recession? Here's What History Says..” Reason on file: JPMorgan Chase (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “federal reserve” (US interest rates) in this story
- BAC Bank Of America
For “Will a Federal Reserve Interest Rate Hike Trigger a Recession? Here's What History Says.,” Bank Of America (BAC) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Bank of America (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “federal reserve” (US interest rates) in this story
- DHI Horton D R
In “Will a Federal Reserve Interest Rate Hike Trigger a Recession? Here's What History Says.,” Horton D R (DHI) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: D.R. Horton (operative builders): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “federal reserve” (US interest rates) in this story
- SCHW Schwab Charles
In “Will a Federal Reserve Interest Rate Hike Trigger a Recession? Here's What History Says.,” Schwab Charles (SCHW) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: The Charles Schwab (security brokers, dealers and flotation companies): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “federal reserve” (US interest rates) in this story
Ishares Tr (TLT)
On 9 Nov 2026, “Will a Federal Reserve Interest Rate Hike Trigger a Recession? Here's What History Says.” is the story that connects Ishares Tr (TLT) to this story.
For Ishares Tr (TLT), the reason on file says iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “federal reserve” (US interest rates) in this story
Also listed, Ishares Tr (IEF): iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “federal reserve” (US interest rates) in this story
Dates and price levels for Ishares Tr (TLT)
IEF traded between 88.64 and 90.69 across 16 sessions. The latest close on file is 90.08. JPM traded between 325.12 and 345.73 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 338.00. TLT traded between 76.44 and 80.56 across 16 sessions. The latest close on file is 79.46.
What the saved facts support for Ishares Tr (TLT)
62 out of 100
“Will a Federal Reserve Interest Rate Hike Trigger a Recession? Here's What History Says.” scores 62 out of 100. The score uses 3 sources, and 6 linked companies.