Wood Mackenzie: 20% of Global Refining Capacity Faces Rising Closure Risk
Published . Updated .
Key takeaways
- Refined product demand is expected to peak at 108 million barrels per day (mmbbl/d) in 2032, from 105 mmbbl/d in 2025, before declining, said Wood Mackenzie in its Horizon report titled “Adapt or die: Why oil refineries must evolve to survive”
- Exposed: CRAK, XLE, VLO, MPC, PSX
- Market reaction: price tracking starts with the next trading session.
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Refined product demand is expected to peak at 108 million barrels per day (mmbbl/d) in 2032, from 105 mmbbl/d in 2025, before declining, said Wood Mackenzie in its Horizon report titled “Adapt or die: Why oil refineries must evolve to survive”
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- USO United States Oil Fund-1.1% 30d
United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR+6.9% 30d
Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- CRAK VanEck Oil Refiners ETF
VanEck Oil Refiners ETF: it holds refiners, whose margins move with fuel prices. Linked by “refining” (refining) in this story.
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings-2.7% 17d
ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- CVX Chevron+3.0% 30d
Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- VLO Valero Energy-11.1% 30d
Valero Energy (petroleum refining): refiners' margins move with crude and fuel prices. Linked by “refining” (refining) in this story.
- MPC Marathon Petroleum-5.2% 14d
Marathon Petroleum (petroleum refining): refiners' margins move with crude and fuel prices. Linked by “refining” (refining) in this story.
- COP ConocoPhillips+6.9% 30d
ConocoPhillips (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USONo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| XLE | +9.12% | +3.08% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| CRAK | +9.70% | +5.65% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| XOM | +8.37% | +2.16% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| CVXNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| VLO | +10.15% | +5.46% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| MPC | +15.44% | +5.26% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| COPNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
Wood Mackenzie: 20% of Global Refining Capacity Faces Rising Closure Risk Egypt Oil & Gas
Source: Egypt Oil & Gas
Price since this story was published: Vaneck Etf Trust (CRAK)
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vaneck Etf Trust (CRAK) | three days earlier | +5.65% | final price |
| Vaneck Etf Trust (CRAK) | five days earlier | +9.70% | final price |
| Marathon Petroleum (MPC) | three days earlier | +5.26% | final price |
| Marathon Petroleum (MPC) | five days earlier | +15.44% | final price |
| Valero Energy (VLO) | three days earlier | +5.46% | final price |
| Valero Energy (VLO) | five days earlier | +10.15% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | three days earlier | +3.08% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | five days earlier | +9.12% | final price |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | three days earlier | +2.16% | final price |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | five days earlier | +8.37% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 25 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) (jointly held), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 31 Aug 2026. That is 69 days before publication. Filed 25 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Chevron (CVX), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 25 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold Chevron (CVX) (jointly held), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 23 Sep 2026. That is 46 days before publication. Filed 13 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar bought Chevron (CVX), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 2 Sep 2026. That is 67 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. David J. Taylor sold Marathon Petroleum (MPC), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 15 Oct 2026. That is 24 days before publication. Filed 29 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. David J. Taylor sold Marathon Petroleum (MPC), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 22 Sep 2026. That is 47 days before publication. Filed 1 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 26 Aug 2026. That is 74 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 24 Aug 2026. That is 76 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Conocophillips (COP), worth $1,000,001 - $5,000,000 on 21 Aug 2026. That is 79 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Who gains and who loses around Vaneck Etf Trust (CRAK)
Companies tied to this story
- CRAK Vaneck Etf Trust
For “Wood Mackenzie: 20% of Global Refining Capacity Faces Rising Closure Risk,” Vaneck Etf Trust (CRAK) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: VanEck Oil Refiners ETF: it holds refiners, whose margins move with fuel prices. Linked by “refining” (refining) in this story
- XLE Select Sector Spdr Tr
In “Wood Mackenzie: 20% of Global Refining Capacity Faces Rising Closure Risk,” Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Energy Select Sector SPDR: it holds refiners, whose margins move with fuel prices. Linked by “refining” (refining) in this story
- VLO Valero Energy
In “Wood Mackenzie: 20% of Global Refining Capacity Faces Rising Closure Risk,” Valero Energy (VLO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Valero Energy (petroleum refining): refiners' margins move with crude and fuel prices. Linked by “refining” (refining) in this story
- MPC Marathon Petroleum
Marathon Petroleum (MPC) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 8 Nov 2026 story “Wood Mackenzie: 20% of Global Refining Capacity Faces Rising Closure Risk.” Reason on file: Marathon Petroleum (petroleum refining): refiners' margins move with crude and fuel prices. Linked by “refining” (refining) in this story
- PSX Phillips 66
Phillips 66 (PSX) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 8 Nov 2026 story “Wood Mackenzie: 20% of Global Refining Capacity Faces Rising Closure Risk.” Reason on file: Phillips 66 (petroleum refining): refiners' margins move with crude and fuel prices. Linked by “refining” (refining) in this story
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings
For “Wood Mackenzie: 20% of Global Refining Capacity Faces Rising Closure Risk,” ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): refiners' margins move with crude and fuel prices. Linked by “refining” (refining) in this story
Vaneck Etf Trust (CRAK) and the energy link
The 8 Nov 2026 story “Wood Mackenzie: 20% of Global Refining Capacity Faces Rising Closure Risk” names Vaneck Etf Trust (CRAK) because of Energy.
Vaneck Etf Trust (CRAK) is on the page because VanEck Oil Refiners ETF: it holds refiners, whose margins move with fuel prices. Linked by “refining” (refining) in this story
Also listed, Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE): Energy Select Sector SPDR: it holds refiners, whose margins move with fuel prices. Linked by “refining” (refining) in this story
Price levels for Vaneck Etf Trust (CRAK)
VLO traded between 342.17 and 461.55 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 346.32. XLE traded between 63.05 and 70.15 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 66.70.
What the saved facts support for Vaneck Etf Trust (CRAK)
46 out of 100
“Wood Mackenzie: 20% of Global Refining Capacity Faces Rising Closure Risk” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 6 linked companies.