World Bank sees commodity prices up 23% in 2026 due to Middle East war, other shocks
Published . Updated .
This report is about defense and banks.
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- ITA iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF-4.2% 30d
iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “war” (defense) in this story.
- XAR SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF-7.3% 30d
SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “war” (defense) in this story.
- XLF Financial Select Sector SPDR-3.5% 30d
Financial Select Sector SPDR: it holds banks. Linked by “bank” (banks) in this story.
- USO United States Oil Fund+4.8% 30d
United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “middle east” (oil) in this story.
- BAC Bank of America-12.5% 30d
Bank of America (national commercial banks): banks' earnings move with lending, deposits and rates. Linked by “bank” (banks) in this story.
- JPM JPMorgan Chase-3.8% 30d
JPMorgan Chase (national commercial banks): banks' earnings move with lending, deposits and rates. Linked by “bank” (banks) in this story.
- WFC Wells Fargo-5.0% 30d
Wells Fargo (national commercial banks): banks' earnings move with lending, deposits and rates. Linked by “bank” (banks) in this story.
- C Citigroup-7.8% 30d
Citigroup (national commercial banks): banks' earnings move with lending, deposits and rates. Linked by “bank” (banks) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ITA | -0.22% | -1.87% | base | -0.02% | after close | after close | after close |
| XARNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| XLFNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| USONo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| BACNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| JPMNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| WFCNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| CNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
Market Call
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World Bank sees commodity prices up 23% in 2026 due to Middle East war, other shocks Reuters
Source: Reuters
The price since 28 Oct 2026: IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) versus the S&P 500
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) | that day | -0.02% | still updating |
| IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) | three days earlier | -1.87% | final price |
| IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) | five days earlier | -0.22% | final price |
Congressional trades in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Rohit Khanna sold Bank Of America (BAC) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 9 Sep 2026. That is 49 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Laurel Lee sold Bank Of America (BAC) (held by a spouse), worth $50,001 - $100,000 on 24 Aug 2026. That is 65 days before publication. Filed 16 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse sold Jpmorgan Chase (JPM), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 4 Sep 2026. That is 54 days before publication. Filed 1 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse sold Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) (held by a spouse), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 4 Sep 2026. That is 54 days before publication. Filed 1 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) (held by a spouse), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 27 Aug 2026. That is 62 days before publication. Filed 4 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Wells Fargo (WFC) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 25 Sep 2026. That is 33 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Wells Fargo (WFC) (held by a dependent child), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 17 Sep 2026. That is 41 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Wells Fargo (WFC) (held by a dependent child), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 15 Sep 2026. That is 43 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar sold Citigroup (C), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 24 Sep 2026. That is 34 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Citigroup (C) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 4 Sep 2026. That is 54 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
How busy Middle East has been lately
Geopolitics Alpha has 0 stories about Middle East from the past 7 days and 0 stories from the past 30. “World Bank sees commodity prices up 23% in 2026 due to Middle East war, other shocks” is tagged to Middle East.
Who gains and who pays if Middle East stays in the story
Companies carried with this story
- ITA IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF
IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 28 Oct 2026 story “World Bank sees commodity prices up 23% in 2026 due to Middle East war, other shocks.” Reason on file: iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “war” (defense) in this story
- XAR Spdr Series Trust
Spdr Series Trust (XAR) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 28 Oct 2026 story “World Bank sees commodity prices up 23% in 2026 due to Middle East war, other shocks.” Reason on file: SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “war” (defense) in this story
- XLF Select Sector Spdr Tr
In “World Bank sees commodity prices up 23% in 2026 due to Middle East war, other shocks,” Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLF) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Financial Select Sector SPDR: it holds banks. Linked by “bank” (banks) in this story
- USO United States Oil Fund
For “World Bank sees commodity prices up 23% in 2026 due to Middle East war, other shocks,” United States Oil Fund (USO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “middle east” (oil) in this story
- BAC Bank Of America
In “World Bank sees commodity prices up 23% in 2026 due to Middle East war, other shocks,” Bank Of America (BAC) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Bank of America (national commercial banks): banks' earnings move with lending, deposits and rates. Linked by “bank” (banks) in this story
- JPM Jpmorgan Chase
For “World Bank sees commodity prices up 23% in 2026 due to Middle East war, other shocks,” Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: JPMorgan Chase (national commercial banks): banks' earnings move with lending, deposits and rates. Linked by “bank” (banks) in this story
- WFC Wells Fargo
In “World Bank sees commodity prices up 23% in 2026 due to Middle East war, other shocks,” Wells Fargo (WFC) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Wells Fargo (national commercial banks): banks' earnings move with lending, deposits and rates. Linked by “bank” (banks) in this story
- C Citigroup
Citigroup (C) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 28 Oct 2026 story “World Bank sees commodity prices up 23% in 2026 due to Middle East war, other shocks.” Reason on file: Citigroup (national commercial banks): banks' earnings move with lending, deposits and rates. Linked by “bank” (banks) in this story
What Middle East means for IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA)
The 28 Oct 2026 story “World Bank sees commodity prices up 23% in 2026 due to Middle East war, other shocks” names IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) because of Middle East.
For IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA), the reason on file says iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “war” (defense) in this story
Spdr Series Trust (XAR) is here too. Its reason reads: SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “war” (defense) in this story
Dates and price levels for IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA)
ITA traded between 197.59 and 211.29 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 206.15. XAR traded between 210.89 and 234.99 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 224.49. XLF traded between 52.82 and 56.03 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 55.07.
How solid the defense case looks
46 out of 100Price not final
“World Bank sees commodity prices up 23% in 2026 due to Middle East war, other shocks” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 8 linked companies. The price is not final yet.