Would prices have fallen without tariffs this past year? New York Fed research says yes for many consumer goods
Published . Updated .
This report is about tariffs and trade and US interest rates.
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- XLI Industrial Select Sector SPDR-1.5% 30d
Industrial Select Sector SPDR: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- XRT SPDR S&P Retail ETF
SPDR S&P Retail ETF: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF-1.6% 30d
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
- JPM JPMorgan Chase-4.3% 30d
JPMorgan Chase (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
- CAT Caterpillar-23.7% 30d
Caterpillar (construction machinery and equip): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- WMT Walmart+14.9% 30d
Walmart (variety stores): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- BAC Bank of America-11.1% 30d
Bank of America (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
- DE Deere-1.3% 30d
Deere (farm machinery and equipment): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLI | -1.06% | +0.22% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| XRT | -3.55% | -1.68% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| TLT | -0.10% | -0.30% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| JPM | -1.44% | +0.85% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| CAT | +16.30% | +5.44% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| WMT | -6.59% | -5.06% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| BAC | +2.23% | +3.18% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| DE | -4.18% | -1.10% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
Market Call
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Would prices have fallen without tariffs this past year? New York Fed research says yes for many consumer goods Chase Bank
Source: Chase Bank
Price since this story was published: Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI)
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAC | three days earlier | +3.18% | final price |
| BAC | five days earlier | +2.23% | final price |
| Caterpillar (CAT) | three days earlier | +5.44% | final price |
| Caterpillar (CAT) | five days earlier | +16.30% | final price |
| Deere (DE) | three days earlier | -1.10% | final price |
| Deere (DE) | five days earlier | -4.18% | final price |
| Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) | three days earlier | +0.85% | final price |
| Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) | five days earlier | -1.44% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (TLT) | three days earlier | -0.30% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (TLT) | five days earlier | -0.10% | final price |
| Walmart (WMT) | three days earlier | -5.06% | final price |
| Walmart (WMT) | five days earlier | -6.59% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) | three days earlier | +0.22% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) | five days earlier | -1.06% | final price |
| Spdr Series Trust (XRT) | three days earlier | -1.68% | final price |
| Spdr Series Trust (XRT) | five days earlier | -3.55% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse sold Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) (held by a spouse), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 4 Sep 2026. That is 60 days before publication. Filed 1 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse sold Jpmorgan Chase (JPM), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 4 Sep 2026. That is 60 days before publication. Filed 1 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) (held by a spouse), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 27 Aug 2026. That is 68 days before publication. Filed 4 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Lisa McClain bought Caterpillar (CAT) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 28 Sep 2026. That is 36 days before publication. Filed 12 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Walmart (WMT) (held by a spouse), worth $50,001 - $100,000 on 2 Oct 2026. That is 32 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Jonathan Jackson sold Walmart (WMT) (jointly held), worth $50,001 - $100,000 on 28 Sep 2026. That is 36 days before publication. Filed 19 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Walmart (WMT) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 25 Sep 2026. That is 39 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna sold Bank Of America (BAC) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 9 Sep 2026. That is 55 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Laurel Lee sold Bank Of America (BAC) (held by a spouse), worth $50,001 - $100,000 on 24 Aug 2026. That is 71 days before publication. Filed 16 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Nike (NKE), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 28 Aug 2026. That is 67 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Gilbert Cisneros sold Nike (NKE), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 27 Aug 2026. That is 68 days before publication. Filed 10 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, sold Nike (NKE), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 21 Aug 2026. That is 74 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Who gains and who loses around Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI)
Companies carried with this story
- XLI Select Sector Spdr Tr
In “Would prices have fallen without tariffs this past year? New York Fed research says yes for many consumer goods,” Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Industrial Select Sector SPDR: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
- XRT Spdr Series Trust
For “Would prices have fallen without tariffs this past year? New York Fed research says yes for many consumer goods,” Spdr Series Trust (XRT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: SPDR S&P Retail ETF: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
- TLT Ishares Tr
Ishares Tr (TLT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 3 Nov 2026 story “Would prices have fallen without tariffs this past year? New York Fed research says yes for many consumer goods.” Reason on file: iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
- CAT Caterpillar
Caterpillar (CAT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 3 Nov 2026 story “Would prices have fallen without tariffs this past year? New York Fed research says yes for many consumer goods.” Reason on file: Caterpillar (construction machinery and equip): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
- WMT Walmart
For “Would prices have fallen without tariffs this past year? New York Fed research says yes for many consumer goods,” Walmart (WMT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Walmart (variety stores): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
- DE Deere
For “Would prices have fallen without tariffs this past year? New York Fed research says yes for many consumer goods,” Deere (DE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Deere (farm machinery and equipment): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
- NKE Nike
For “Would prices have fallen without tariffs this past year? New York Fed research says yes for many consumer goods,” Nike (NKE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Nike (rubber and plastics footwear): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
- JPM Jpmorgan Chase
For “Would prices have fallen without tariffs this past year? New York Fed research says yes for many consumer goods,” Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: JPMorgan Chase (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI)
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) is the company in “Would prices have fallen without tariffs this past year? New York Fed research says yes for many consumer goods,” the 3 Nov 2026 this story story.
For Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI), the reason on file says Industrial Select Sector SPDR: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
Spdr Series Trust (XRT) is here too. Its reason reads: SPDR S&P Retail ETF: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
Dates in the story, and the Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) price range
TLT traded between 76.44 and 81.94 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 79.46. XLI traded between 163.00 and 172.33 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 167.42.
What the saved facts support for Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI)
46 out of 100
“Would prices have fallen without tariffs this past year? New York Fed research says yes for many consumer goods” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 8 linked companies.