Would your dividends survive a recession? I stress tested 5 popular ASX income shares to find out
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Could BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) slash its dividend in a recession? Here's what my stress test revealed about five ASX income shares.
Directly affected
- BHP BHP Group
Named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- DIA SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF
SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF: it is a broad US stock-market fund. Linked by “recession” (the broad US market) in this story.
- QQQ Invesco QQQ
Invesco QQQ: it is a broad US stock-market fund. Linked by “recession” (the broad US market) in this story.
- XLB Materials Select Sector SPDR
Materials Select Sector SPDR holds the materials sector that BHP Group belongs to, so it often moves with news about it.
- SCCO Southern Copper
Southern Copper is a peer of BHP Group in metal mining; rivals often move on the same news.
- RIO Rio Tinto Group
Rio Tinto Group is a peer of BHP Group in metal mining; rivals often move on the same news.
- FCX Freeport-McMoRan
Freeport-McMoRan is a peer of BHP Group in metal mining; rivals often move on the same news.
- VALE Vale S.A
Vale S.A is a peer of BHP Group in metal mining; rivals often move on the same news.
- HBM Hudbay Minerals
Hudbay Minerals is a peer of BHP Group in metal mining; rivals often move on the same news.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BHP | +0.25% | +0.34% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| DIA | +1.38% | +4.07% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| QQQ | +3.80% | +5.39% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| XLB | +3.28% | +3.71% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| SCCO | +7.26% | +5.87% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| RIO | -1.21% | +1.00% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| FCX | +5.94% | +5.40% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| VALE | -2.20% | -1.42% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| HBM | +3.83% | +6.32% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
Would your dividends survive a recession? I stress tested 5 popular ASX income shares to find out The Motley Fool Australia
Source: The Motley Fool Australia
Spdr Dow Jones Industrial Average Etf Trust (DIA) since this story, compared with the market
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| BHP | three days earlier | +0.34% | final price |
| BHP | five days earlier | +0.25% | final price |
| Spdr Dow Jones Industrial Average Etf Trust (DIA) | three days earlier | +4.07% | final price |
| Spdr Dow Jones Industrial Average Etf Trust (DIA) | five days earlier | +1.38% | final price |
| FCX | three days earlier | +5.40% | final price |
| FCX | five days earlier | +5.94% | final price |
| HBM | three days earlier | +6.32% | final price |
| HBM | five days earlier | +3.83% | final price |
| Invesco Qqq Trust, Series 1 (QQQ) | three days earlier | +5.39% | final price |
| Invesco Qqq Trust, Series 1 (QQQ) | five days earlier | +3.80% | final price |
| RIO | three days earlier | +1.00% | final price |
| RIO | five days earlier | -1.21% | final price |
| SCCO | three days earlier | +5.87% | final price |
| SCCO | five days earlier | +7.26% | final price |
| VALE | three days earlier | -1.42% | final price |
| VALE | five days earlier | -2.20% | final price |
| XLB | three days earlier | +3.71% | final price |
| XLB | five days earlier | +3.28% | final price |
Who gains and who loses around Spdr Dow Jones Industrial Average Etf Trust (DIA)
Companies carried with this story
- DIA Spdr Dow Jones Industrial Average Etf Trust
In “Would your dividends survive a recession? I stress tested 5 popular ASX income shares to find out,” Spdr Dow Jones Industrial Average Etf Trust (DIA) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF: it is a broad US stock-market fund. Linked by “recession” (the broad US market) in this story
- QQQ Invesco Qqq Trust, Series 1
For “Would your dividends survive a recession? I stress tested 5 popular ASX income shares to find out,” Invesco Qqq Trust, Series 1 (QQQ) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Invesco QQQ: it is a broad US stock-market fund. Linked by “recession” (the broad US market) in this story
- IWM Ishares Tr
For “Would your dividends survive a recession? I stress tested 5 popular ASX income shares to find out,” Ishares Tr (IWM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares Russell 2000 ETF: it is a broad US stock-market fund. Linked by “recession” (the broad US market) in this story
- RSP Invesco Exchange Traded Fd T
For “Would your dividends survive a recession? I stress tested 5 popular ASX income shares to find out,” Invesco Exchange Traded Fd T (RSP) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF: it is a broad US stock-market fund. Linked by “recession” (the broad US market) in this story
- VTI Vanguard Index Fds
In “Would your dividends survive a recession? I stress tested 5 popular ASX income shares to find out,” Vanguard Index Fds (VTI) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF: it is a broad US stock-market fund. Linked by “recession” (the broad US market) in this story
Spdr Dow Jones Industrial Average Etf Trust (DIA)
“Would your dividends survive a recession? I stress tested 5 popular ASX income shares to find out” (7 Nov 2026) reaches Spdr Dow Jones Industrial Average Etf Trust (DIA) through this story.
Spdr Dow Jones Industrial Average Etf Trust (DIA) is on the page because SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF: it is a broad US stock-market fund. Linked by “recession” (the broad US market) in this story
Also listed, Invesco Qqq Trust, Series 1 (QQQ): Invesco QQQ: it is a broad US stock-market fund. Linked by “recession” (the broad US market) in this story
Dates in the story, and the Spdr Dow Jones Industrial Average Etf Trust (DIA) price range
DIA traded between 504.92 and 522.62 across 15 sessions. The latest close on file is 515.65. IWM traded between 269.88 and 285.25 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 279.20. QQQ traded between 680.34 and 757.18 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 685.32.
A simple score for Spdr Dow Jones Industrial Average Etf Trust (DIA)
40 out of 100
“Would your dividends survive a recession? I stress tested 5 popular ASX income shares to find out” scores 40 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 5 linked companies.