Do stocks beat prediction markets? For most people, yes
Published . Updated .
Covered by 4 outlets: Billings Gazette, The Daily Progress, Hawaii Tribune-Herald, KIRO 7 News Seattle.
Key takeaways
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The Motley Fool reports that over 82% of Polymarket wallets lost money in 2025, highlighting the risks of prediction mark
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- IAI iShares U.S. Broker-Dealers & Securities Exchanges ETF
iShares U.S. Broker-Dealers & Securities Exchanges ETF: it holds exchanges and brokers. Linked by “prediction market” (exchanges and trading) in this story.
- CME CME Group+2.9% 11d
CME Group (security and commodity brokers, dealers, exchanges and services): exchanges and brokers earn more when trading activity grows. Linked by “prediction market” (exchanges and trading) in this story.
- CBOE Cboe Global Markets+28.8% 30d
Cboe Global Markets (security and commodity brokers, dealers, exchanges and services): exchanges and brokers earn more when trading activity grows. Linked by “prediction market” (exchanges and trading) in this story.
- ICE Intercontinental Exchange+9.3% 30d
Intercontinental Exchange (security and commodity brokers, dealers, exchanges and services): exchanges and brokers earn more when trading activity grows. Linked by “prediction market” (exchanges and trading) in this story.
- HOOD Robinhood Markets-30.2% 30d
Robinhood Markets (security brokers, dealers and flotation companies): exchanges and brokers earn more when trading activity grows. Linked by “prediction market” (exchanges and trading) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IAI | -0.94% | -1.65% | base | +3.03% | after close | after close | after close |
| CME | -3.26% | -0.26% | base | +0.47% | after close | after close | after close |
| CBOE | -6.56% | -2.33% | base | -0.27% | after close | after close | after close |
| ICE | -8.72% | -1.20% | base | +1.81% | after close | after close | after close |
| HOOD | +6.72% | -0.78% | base | +2.50% | after close | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
Do stocks beat prediction markets? For most people, yes Billings Gazette
Source: Billings Gazette
Ishares Tr (IAI)
| Company | When | Average | Largest gain | Largest drop | Prices |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cboe Global Markets (CBOE) | the next day | -2.42% | -2.42% | -2.42% | 3 |
| Cme Group (CME) | the next day | -0.37% | -0.37% | -0.37% | 3 |
Ishares Tr (IAI) since this story, compared with the market
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cboe Global Markets (CBOE) | that day | -0.27% | still updating |
| Cboe Global Markets (CBOE) | three days earlier | -2.33% | final price |
| Cboe Global Markets (CBOE) | five days earlier | -6.56% | final price |
| Cme Group (CME) | that day | +0.47% | still updating |
| Cme Group (CME) | three days earlier | -0.26% | final price |
| Cme Group (CME) | five days earlier | -3.26% | final price |
| Robinhood Markets (HOOD) | that day | +2.50% | still updating |
| Robinhood Markets (HOOD) | three days earlier | -0.78% | final price |
| Robinhood Markets (HOOD) | five days earlier | +6.72% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (IAI) | that day | +3.03% | still updating |
| Ishares Tr (IAI) | three days earlier | -1.65% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (IAI) | five days earlier | -0.94% | final price |
| Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) | that day | +1.81% | still updating |
| Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) | three days earlier | -1.20% | final price |
| Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) | five days earlier | -8.72% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Cme Group (CME), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 17 Aug 2026. That is 79 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, sold Cme Group (CME), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 10 Aug 2026. That is 86 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Who is named in “Do stocks beat prediction markets? For most people, yes”
Companies carried with this story
- IAI Ishares Tr
In “Do stocks beat prediction markets? For most people, yes,” Ishares Tr (IAI) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares U.S. Broker-Dealers & Securities Exchanges ETF: it holds exchanges and brokers. Linked by “prediction market” (exchanges and trading) in this story
- CBOE Cboe Global Markets
In “Do stocks beat prediction markets? For most people, yes,” Cboe Global Markets (CBOE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Cboe Global Markets (security and commodity brokers, dealers, exchanges and services): exchanges and brokers earn more when trading activity grows. Linked by “prediction market” (exchanges and trading) in this story
- CME Cme Group
In “Do stocks beat prediction markets? For most people, yes,” Cme Group (CME) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: CME Group (security and commodity brokers, dealers, exchanges and services): exchanges and brokers earn more when trading activity grows. Linked by “prediction market” (exchanges and trading) in this story
- HOOD Robinhood Markets
For “Do stocks beat prediction markets? For most people, yes,” Robinhood Markets (HOOD) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Robinhood Markets (security brokers, dealers and flotation companies): exchanges and brokers earn more when trading activity grows. Linked by “prediction market” (exchanges and trading) in this story
- ICE Intercontinental Exchange
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 4 Nov 2026 story “Do stocks beat prediction markets? For most people, yes.” Reason on file: Intercontinental Exchange (security and commodity brokers, dealers, exchanges and services): exchanges and brokers earn more when trading activity grows. Linked by “prediction market” (exchanges and trading) in this story
How “Do stocks beat prediction markets? For most people, yes” reaches Ishares Tr (IAI)
On 4 Nov 2026, “Do stocks beat prediction markets? For most people, yes” is the story that connects Ishares Tr (IAI) to this story.
Ishares Tr (IAI) is on the page because iShares U.S. Broker-Dealers & Securities Exchanges ETF: it holds exchanges and brokers. Linked by “prediction market” (exchanges and trading) in this story
Cboe Global Markets (CBOE) is here too. Its reason reads: Cboe Global Markets (security and commodity brokers, dealers, exchanges and services): exchanges and brokers earn more when trading activity grows. Linked by “prediction market” (exchanges and trading) in this story
Dates and price levels for Ishares Tr (IAI)
CBOE traded between 267.17 and 351.42 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 343.39. CME traded between 290.48 and 309.31 across 11 sessions. The latest close on file is 304.00.
How solid “Do stocks beat prediction markets? For most people, yes” looks
63 out of 100Price not final
“Do stocks beat prediction markets? For most people, yes” scores 63 out of 100. The score uses 4 sources, and 5 linked companies. The price is not final yet.