El Niño could push U.S. inflation one percentage point higher in 2027 (SPY:NYSEARCA)
Published . Updated .
Key takeaways
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San Francisco Fed warns El Niño could lift U.S. inflation in 2027, with food and services prices at risk.
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- TIP iShares TIPS Bond ETF-0.1% 30d
iShares TIPS Bond ETF: it is a common hedge when prices rise. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story.
- XLP Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR-2.8% 14d
Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR: it is a common hedge when prices rise. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story.
- TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF-1.8% 30d
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
- WMT Walmart+12.9% 30d
Walmart (variety stores): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story.
- COST Costco Wholesale+12.7% 30d
Costco Wholesale (variety stores): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story.
- PG The Procter & Gamble+9.2% 30d
The Procter & Gamble (soap, detergents, cleang preparations, perfumes, cosmetics): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story.
- KO The Coca-Cola+7.6% 30d
The Coca-Cola (beverages): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story.
- JPM JPMorgan Chase+0.1% 30d
JPMorgan Chase (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TIP | +0.16% | +0.57% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| XLP | -2.35% | +0.52% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| TLT | -0.09% | +0.94% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| WMT | -4.79% | -1.04% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| COST | -3.61% | -0.67% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| PG | -2.31% | -0.30% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| KO | -3.14% | -0.70% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| JPM | +0.41% | -0.26% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
El Niño could push U.S. inflation one percentage point higher in 2027 (SPY:NYSEARCA) Seeking Alpha
Source: Seeking Alpha
How far Ishares Tr (TIP) has moved since 4 Nov 2026
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Costco Wholesale (COST) | three days earlier | -0.67% | final price |
| Costco Wholesale (COST) | five days earlier | -3.61% | final price |
| JPM | three days earlier | -0.26% | final price |
| JPM | five days earlier | +0.41% | final price |
| Coca Cola (KO) | three days earlier | -0.70% | final price |
| Coca Cola (KO) | five days earlier | -3.14% | final price |
| Procter & Gamble (PG) | three days earlier | -0.30% | final price |
| Procter & Gamble (PG) | five days earlier | -2.31% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (TIP) | three days earlier | +0.57% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (TIP) | five days earlier | +0.16% | final price |
| TLT | three days earlier | +0.94% | final price |
| TLT | five days earlier | -0.09% | final price |
| Walmart (WMT) | three days earlier | -1.04% | final price |
| Walmart (WMT) | five days earlier | -4.79% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLP) | three days earlier | +0.52% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLP) | five days earlier | -2.35% | final price |
Congressional trades in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Walmart (WMT) (held by a spouse), worth $50,001 - $100,000 on 2 Oct 2026. That is 33 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Jonathan Jackson sold Walmart (WMT) (jointly held), worth $50,001 - $100,000 on 28 Sep 2026. That is 37 days before publication. Filed 19 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Walmart (WMT) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 25 Sep 2026. That is 40 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Costco Wholesale (COST), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 13 Oct 2026. That is 22 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Costco Wholesale (COST) (held by a spouse), worth $250,001 - $500,000 on 2 Oct 2026. That is 33 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Costco Wholesale (COST) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 25 Sep 2026. That is 40 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. David J. Taylor sold Procter & Gamble (PG), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 12 Oct 2026. That is 23 days before publication. Filed 15 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Procter & Gamble (PG), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 8 Oct 2026. That is 27 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Procter & Gamble (PG) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 25 Sep 2026. That is 40 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern bought Coca Cola (KO) (jointly held), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 31 Aug 2026. That is 65 days before publication. Filed 25 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse sold Jpmorgan Chase (JPM), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 4 Sep 2026. That is 61 days before publication. Filed 1 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse sold Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) (held by a spouse), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 4 Sep 2026. That is 61 days before publication. Filed 1 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Who gains and who loses around Ishares Tr (TIP)
Companies mentioned with this story
- TIP Ishares Tr
For “El Niño could push U.S. inflation one percentage point higher in 2027 (SPY:NYSEARCA),” Ishares Tr (TIP) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares TIPS Bond ETF: it is a common hedge when prices rise. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story
- XLP Select Sector Spdr Tr
For “El Niño could push U.S. inflation one percentage point higher in 2027 (SPY:NYSEARCA),” Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLP) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR: it is a common hedge when prices rise. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story
- WMT Walmart
Walmart (WMT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 4 Nov 2026 story “El Niño could push U.S. inflation one percentage point higher in 2027 (SPY:NYSEARCA).” Reason on file: Walmart (variety stores): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story
- COST Costco Wholesale
Costco Wholesale (COST) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 4 Nov 2026 story “El Niño could push U.S. inflation one percentage point higher in 2027 (SPY:NYSEARCA).” Reason on file: Costco Wholesale (variety stores): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story
- PG Procter & Gamble
Procter & Gamble (PG) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 4 Nov 2026 story “El Niño could push U.S. inflation one percentage point higher in 2027 (SPY:NYSEARCA).” Reason on file: The Procter & Gamble (soap, detergents, cleang preparations, perfumes, cosmetics): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story
- KO Coca Cola
Coca Cola (KO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 4 Nov 2026 story “El Niño could push U.S. inflation one percentage point higher in 2027 (SPY:NYSEARCA).” Reason on file: The Coca-Cola (beverages): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story
Ishares Tr (TIP)
“El Niño could push U.S. inflation one percentage point higher in 2027 (SPY:NYSEARCA)” (4 Nov 2026) reaches Ishares Tr (TIP) through this story.
Ishares Tr (TIP) is on the page because iShares TIPS Bond ETF: it is a common hedge when prices rise. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story
A second company, Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLP), is listed for a different reason: Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR: it is a common hedge when prices rise. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story
Dates in the story, and the Ishares Tr (TIP) price range
TIP traded between 103.77 and 105.67 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 105.27. WMT traded between 107.44 and 127.91 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 124.81. XLP traded between 80.10 and 83.07 across 11 sessions. The latest close on file is 81.02.
What the saved facts support for Ishares Tr (TIP)
46 out of 100
“El Niño could push U.S. inflation one percentage point higher in 2027 (SPY:NYSEARCA)” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 6 linked companies.