Falling oil prices are no longer enough to bring down borrowing costs in the world’s most important bond market
Published . Updated .
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The tight trading relationship between oil prices and Treasury yields has broken down. It’s a sign that inflation concerns are extending beyond the energy shock.
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- USO United States Oil Fund-1.1% 30d
United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR+6.9% 30d
Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF-1.2% 19d
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “borrowing costs” (US interest rates) in this story.
- TIP iShares TIPS Bond ETF+0.4% 19d
iShares TIPS Bond ETF: it is a common hedge when prices rise. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story.
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings-2.7% 17d
ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- CVX Chevron+3.3% 30d
Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- COP ConocoPhillips+4.8% 30d
ConocoPhillips (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- SHEL Shell+1.1% 9d
Shell (crude petroleum and natural gas): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO | +4.74% | +0.82% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| XLE | -2.64% | -2.21% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| TLT | +1.21% | +1.27% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| TIP | +0.93% | +0.72% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| XOM | -0.81% | -1.14% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| CVX | -0.13% | -1.13% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| COP | -1.64% | -2.34% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| SHEL | +2.32% | +1.03% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
The tight trading relationship between oil prices and Treasury yields has broken down. It’s a sign that inflation concerns are extending beyond the energy shock.
Source: MarketWatch
Energy
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| COP | three days earlier | -2.34% | final price |
| COP | five days earlier | -1.64% | final price |
| CVX | three days earlier | -1.13% | final price |
| CVX | five days earlier | -0.13% | final price |
| SHEL | three days earlier | +1.03% | final price |
| SHEL | five days earlier | +2.32% | final price |
| TIP | three days earlier | +0.72% | final price |
| TIP | five days earlier | +0.93% | final price |
| TLT | three days earlier | +1.27% | final price |
| TLT | five days earlier | +1.21% | final price |
| USO | three days earlier | +0.82% | final price |
| USO | five days earlier | +4.74% | final price |
| XLE | three days earlier | -2.21% | final price |
| XLE | five days earlier | -2.64% | final price |
| XOM | three days earlier | -1.14% | final price |
| XOM | five days earlier | -0.81% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 28 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) (jointly held), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 31 Aug 2026. That is 72 days before publication. Filed 25 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Chevron (CVX), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 28 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold Chevron (CVX) (jointly held), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 23 Sep 2026. That is 49 days before publication. Filed 13 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar bought Chevron (CVX), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 2 Sep 2026. That is 70 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 26 Aug 2026. That is 77 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 24 Aug 2026. That is 79 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Conocophillips (COP), worth $1,000,001 - $5,000,000 on 21 Aug 2026. That is 82 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
How solid the energy case looks
12 out of 100
“Falling oil prices are no longer enough to bring down borrowing costs in the world’s most important bond market” scores 12 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources.